England v Springboks - Twickenham

[Brumby Runner]

Will Lambie keep ball in hand as much as Pollard or will there be more kicking? Wgich game style would likely be more effective against the Poms?

 

[PaarlBok]

Pollard had such bad service against Ireland , he was totally out of it. I am a bit frustrated with the Bokke team, the same match 23 as last week, so no experimenting against England before the WC in the same sort of game situation. I am glad Lambie got his chance tho, lets see if he get it right and deserve his spot. Reinach should have been there since a long time ago. I am worried without Battleship and no poacher flanker.

 

[PaarlBok]

Hope Lambie keep it in hand, he is no big punter of the pill.

 

[Shelts89]

He's got buckley's chance of cracking the English side in the back-row. If he does it he must have earned it.

You mistake me, I meant the club want him at backrow. I don't know how much choice England get in it. Since they don't pay the wages. Though TBH I could see him as a good 8. We already have 2 of those though.

 

[BabyBlueElephant]

Interesting that although both are the set piece nerds of world rugby, they are adapting to playing more expansive games. I believe England tactically have so far been more adept at attacking rugby than South Africa the past season or so, although SA do have the talents to match England here.

It will be a Bok backlash, but it will also be an England team thirsty as hell for a SH scalp before the WC. Don't think you can get a better intro than that. Isn't it forecast to be a horrible week of rain in England? If so it may end up being the typical slug fest it usually is between these two despite their new mantra's of backplay.

 

[Hugh Jarse]

I concur. I can see a Bokke backlash being unleashed, lead by their loose forwards who are absolute top notch, and can shape the necessary conditions for victory provided HM has studied the video from the NZL v ENG and SAF v IRE games in some detail.

Saffers can sometimes be ambushed, as happened at Landsdown Road last week, but they are a canny crew and seldom get surprised in back to back games.

If it is wet weather, as predicted, then the Bokke fatties should have a field day in the muck and slush.

Bokke by 10 - 15.

 

[Braveheart81]

All things considered a very strong pack, I still believe South Africa are favorites for this game.

I concur. I can see a Bokke backlash being unleashed, lead by their loose forwards who are absolute top notch, and can shape the necessary conditions for victory provided HM has studied the video from the NZL v ENG and SAF v IRE games in some detail.

Saffers can sometimes be ambushed, as happened at Landsdown Road last week, but they are a canny crew and seldom get surprised in back to back games.

If it is wet weather, as predicted, then the Bokke fatties should have a field day in the muck and slush.

Bokke by 10 - 15.

England are favourites with the bookies, so if you're that confident of the Springboks, get on it!

 

[Hugh Jarse]

And the Bookies get it right all the time?

They are simply shrewd mathletes who manipulate the numbers to ensure that they stay ahead of those who are more irrational with their money and their maths. As long as there are plenty of mug punters about, the bookies don't have to get it right every time.

In my footytips comp, there is a person who always tips the bookies favourites every week. They end up with reasonable results across the season, always in the top 1/4 of the leaderboard but never topping the ladder.

 

[RugbyReg]

yeah, I was surprised by the Poms being favourites.

I have started dabbling in a bit of sports bet and have a multi going on some of this weekend's games. Backing the Boks over Poms is the move that gave me real value. Really was the only reason I made the bet.

 

[Braveheart81]

And the Bookies get it right all the time?

They are simply shrewd mathletes who manipulate the numbers to ensure that they stay ahead of those who are more irrational with their money and their maths. As long as there are plenty of mug punters about, the bookies don't have to get it right every time.

In my footytips comp, there is a person who always tips the bookies favourites every week. They end up with reasonable results across the season, always in the top 1/4 of the leaderboard but never topping the ladder.

Of course they don't get it right all the time.

Betting logic would suggest that when you think the bookies have got it wrong with their odds it is the ideal time to bet.

 

[BDA]

Tough one to call.

It's always a great fixture when these two sides meet. Maybe not the most exciting games from a try scoring perspective but for rugby purists it will be a tense experience.

The Boks generally have the wood on England. The English game plan tends to play into their hands. England will resort to close quarters battle and that suits the Boks. The difference is usually the Boks' are a bit more capable with ball in hand.

That said, if the boks play like they did last week they'll lose. Their back line last week was nonexistent and they really didn't impose themselves at the ruck. Although Heyneke Meyer kinda scares me and I get the feeling he doesn't take a loss lightly. I'm sure he'll have his chargers up for this one.

I'll roll the dice. Boks by 3.

 

[Antony]

You mistake me, I meant the club want him at backrow. I don't know how much choice England get in it. Since they don't pay the wages. Though TBH I could see him as a good 8. We already have 2 of those though.

No I understood what you meant - I was just pointing out that the club's move is probably going to result in him not making the RWC squad. Which seems to be the whole reason he came over.

 

[Antony]

Of course they don't get it right all the time.

Betting logic would suggest that when you think the bookies have got it wrong with their odds it is the ideal time to bet.

Rule numero uno is to just bet against teams from big markets (Australia and England in rugby; India and Australia in cricket), because uninformed loyalty-money from those markets artificially drives the opposition's price up.

Best pay day I ever had was backing Scotland to beat Australia that time in Newcastle. It was raining sheets, Australia had their second string side, and sportsbet still had Scotland paying eight dollars. Obviously most genuine rugby followers thought the game was pretty much a coin-toss, but casual Aussie punters didn't respect a team like Scotland.

 

[Blue]

And the Bookies get it right all the time?

They are simply shrewd mathletes who manipulate the numbers to ensure that they stay ahead of those who are more irrational with their money and their maths. As long as there are plenty of mug punters about, the bookies don't have to get it right every time.

In my footytips comp, there is a person who always tips the bookies favourites every week. They end up with reasonable results across the season, always in the top 1/4 of the leaderboard but never topping the ladder.

I like your enthusiasm but yes, they get it right most of the time. They are in the business of making money and lots of it, which they do.

But I agree the Boks will be up for it big time.

 

[Quick Hands]

And the Bookies get it right all the time?

Follow the money.

There's a lot more poor punters than there are poor bookies

 

[Hugh Jarse]

^^^ Agree totally. As I intimated above, the Bookies play the law of averages and do very well separating mugs from their money.

Those Bookies that are unable to achieve this rather simple outcome do not stay in business too long.

My post was challenging the notion that bookies favourites will win every time.

The Bokke should be ready to tear into the Soap Dodgers with the same vigour that a young fellow rips into a packet of frangers at Schoolies Week on the Goldie.

 

[Mank]

I concur. I can see a Bokke backlash being unleashed, lead by their loose forwards who are absolute top notch, and can shape the necessary conditions for victory provided HM has studied the video from the NZL v ENG and SAF v IRE games in some detail.

Hmmm. To me, Francois Louw is probably more important than Duane Vermeulen. He allows Vermeulen to play the game he does.

I'm not confident our loosies are going to dominate like you think.

Saffers can sometimes be ambushed, as happened at Landsdown Road last week, but they are a canny crew and seldom get surprised in back to back games.

If it is wet weather, as predicted, then the Bokke fatties should have a field day in the muck and slush.

Bokke by 10 - 15.

Not so confident. I actually expect the Boks to lose this one. It's been getting closer over the last couple of years, England are due a win over us, and they're on home soil.

England will absolutely expect the Bok forwards to come out firing and so must have something in place to deal with this. I hope we are canny enough to counter whatever that is.

 

[PaarlBok]

Teams:
England:
15 Mike Brown, 14 Anthony Watson, 13 Brad Barritt, 12 Kyle Eastmond, 11 Jonny May, 10 Owen Farrell, 9 Danny Care, 8 Billy Vunipola, 7 Chris Robshaw (captain), 6 Tom Wood, 5 Courtney Lawes, 4 Dave Attwood, 3 Dave Wilson, 2 Dylan Hartley, 1 Joe Marler

Substitues: 16 Robert Webber, 17 Matt Mullan, 18 Kieran Brookes, 19 George Kruis, 20 Ben Morgan, 21 Ben Youngs, 22 George Ford, 23 Marland Yarde
South Africa:
15 Willie le Roux, 14 JP Pietersen, 13 Jan Serfontein, 12 Jean de Villiers (captain), 11 Bryan Habana, 10 Pat Lambie, 9 Cobus Reinach, 8 Duane Vermeulen, 7 Schalk Burger, 6 Marcell Coetzee, 5 Victor Matfield, 4 Eben Etzebeth, 3 Jannie du Plessis, 2 Adriaan Strauss, 1 Beast Mtawarira

Substitutes: 16 Bismarck du Plessis, 17 Trevor Nyakane, 18 Coenie Oosthuizen, 19 Bakkies Botha, 20 Teboho “Oupa” Mohoje, 21 Francois Hougaard, 22 Handré Pollard, 23 Cornal Hendricks

 

[Shelts89]

I don't know enough about your change at 9 to know if it will make a change. But I do feel that Strauss over Bismark is an improvement for you on recent performances though.

As for our new winger, Watson is very very quick like may too. So hopefully we may see some more wonder tries!

 

[Ulrich]

If the forwards can achieve dominance at the contact area then Reinach will look good. He is a Barbarians-type player so he'll look to snipe, link up and run support lines. Don't expect a tactical game from him at all.

Lambie is probably the best he has been in a Bok jersey so if it goes well for the 9 (who is also his partner provincially) then he can call the shots tactically and also probe the line.

My biggest concern is the loose trio. The starters are OK but the replacements are not in the same league. England are probably suffering from way more injuries it seems so it's no excuse, just an observation.

Would have liked to see Goosen on the bench for le Roux. We may need a bit of a boot and while le Roux has improved in this area he is not known to get distance.

Compare this to 2007 where we had FdP who was a kicking 9. Butch who could kick and run at 10. F. Steyn who could kick at 12 and Percy Montgomery a master left-footer at 15.

We're limited to Lambie and the bits and pieces from le Roux of late.