Brumbies vs Waratahs Super Rugby Rd11 2012

[RoffsChoice]

I'd say the Brumbies will win this game in a tight one. If the Tahs bring their play from the Crusaders game (minus the defensive & restart problems) then this could well be game of the round.

The Tahs had some amazing defense, I really saw an element of the Stormers in them. Unlike the Stormers, however, they had noticeable differences in the defensive ability of players.

If the Brumbies are starved of possession, will eventually get it back. If they are starved of territory though, they will kick it. This is exactly what the Tahs want as it was when the Crusaders didn't have the ball that they looked like they were losing.

The Tahs will really need their A - Game. This week is their do-or-die.

 

[mark_s]

What's with the avatar roffschoice?

 

[emuarse]

Definitely a game of massive match ups from a Wallaby perspective.

Robinson and Kepu vs Alexander and Palmer.
Polota-Nau vs Moore
Dennis and Palu vs Mowen and Vaea/Auelea
McKibbin vs White
Barnes vs Lealiifano
Carter vs McCabe
Ashley-Cooper vs Mogg

Agreed for most of what you anticipate, but I see Hooper V Dennis as the challenge amongst the loose forwards.
And as for Carter, vs McCabe, if that's where the result lies, then my money is with the Brumbies

 

[RoffsChoice]

What's with the avatar roffschoice?

I saw it and immediately thought of McCaw's amazing ability to avoid being penalised. I just enjoy it

 

[mark_s]

I am waiting for lightening bolts to come out of Richie's hands.

Actually alot of the Emporors quotes could also have come from Richie:

"Everything is proceeding as I have forseen"

"If you will not be turned, you will be destroyed"

"Now you pay your price for your lack of vision"

and so it goes on. Scary really

 

[RoffsChoice]

Something something darkside?

Something something something complete?

Man is rugby royalty. Emperor is... well... Emperor.

 

[Hawko]

Agreed for most of what you anticipate, but I see Hooper V Dennis as the challenge amongst the loose forwards

Given that the two fetchers will be Jenkins and Hooper, I'm not sure how Hooper and Dennis will be directly opposed except in the general sense that both packs will be out for each other at the breakdown. For me the key match-ups are Hooper vs Jenkins (Jenkins is probably playing for a spot in the Rebels squad next year, he'll be desperate to impress and Hooper will be looking to show he is worth a place on the Wallaby squad), Dennis vs Mowen (both playing very well and both have similar games, both vying for one Wallaby spot in Deans' squad) and Palu vs Auelua (old bull vs young bull). Those three direct contests will go a long way to deciding the outcome of Saturday night's match. I'll be particularly watching these three contests within the game, I suspect they'll be the momentum shifters.

 

[Lee Grant]

I think you are right about Jenkins and the Rebels Hawko. I'm not sure when Lipman's contract is finished but it will be good to get an Oz qualified guy in there and not lose him overseas. That's the one good thing about injuries or illnesses: 2 guys are out and an uncontracted bloke gets a shot and does OK - as many of us thought he would.

I don't know that it's young bull against old bull at no.8: more like two old Bulls, but they will definitely both be aware of the other guy. From a Wobs point of view it will be good to have two of that kind of big bopper no.8, with a bit of skill about them too. Neither has a great track record with injuries so hopefully their injuries will be out of synch and one big bopper is always around.

I think that Deans will go for this kind of no.8 in most games. This may disadvantage Mowen, but since he is an elite lineout receiver there is probably a place for him in a 22. I think the rise of Mowen will put paid to McCalman for the time being though, perversely, McCalman may be needed for the Scotland match.

The choice of 6 for the Wobs will be interesting with Higginbotham in the mix with too and probably getting first shot against Scotland.

A comparison of Dennis and Mowen as 6s will be noteworthy on Saturday. Dennis good in the lineout too but not as good as Mowen; Dennis better in the physical contests and pick and drives. Both able to play 8 but probably not getting a gig there for their Super team in the foreseeable future.

Am looking forward to seeing Speight play again - and Tomane. There is a definitely edge there for the Brumbies compared to the Tahs dirt-trackers but they had better get the ball to them and not just go back to the Tahs v Brumbies boreathons.
.

 

[RoffsChoice]

A comparison of Dennis and Mowen as 6s will be noteworthy on Saturday. Dennis good in the lineout too but not as good as Mowen; Dennis better in the physical contests and pick and drives. Both able to play 8 but probably not getting a gig there for their Super team in the foreseeable future.

I think one of the things to consider with Mowen and Dennis is the decline of Horwill's quality of play. If he doesn't begin to improve, we may not see him in the Wallabies this year (At least, not a starting squad).

For that reason, you have to keep an eye on Elsom and Mowen. Both of them are good captains, if not necessarily amazing players.

 

[RedsHappy]

I think one of the things to consider with Mowen and Dennis is the decline of Horwill's quality of play. If he doesn't begin to improve, we may not see him in the Wallabies this year (At least, not a starting squad).

For that reason, you have to keep an eye on Elsom and Mowen. Both of them are good captains, if not necessarily amazing players.

There's no doubt Big Kev is playing with less intensity and accuracy than in 2011. FWIW, my own view is that, like Genia, Simmons etc, these core Reds had massive playing sessions and large elite game numbers in 2011 when we start in February 2011, go through a full S15 to GF, then 3N, then RWC (as new Captain), then end EOYT in the EU in December. This is showing now. It's accumulated mental fatigue as much as physical.

I believe that in the interests of Australia rugby as we look to 2013, Horwill and Genia (and maybe others) should be given a complete break in June, even if they argue how much they want to don Wallaby colours. There are other competent players that would benefit from their chance in green and gold, and the absent stars would come back happier and probably playing better, and would not be put at risk of serious burn out at end 2012...or worse into the crucial BIL tour year.

 

[qwerty51]

Break in June? I wouldn't want to be dropping matches at home. Rather a break during the Spring tour as development for other players

 

[No4918]

Want the Brums to win but a Tahs victory is better for the Reds chances of topping the conference. Not sure who to pick.

Don't think there is any genuine danger of Horwill missing out on the run on for the Wobs and not sure why the form of 2 backrowers performances are being seen as a danger to his spot. Lets compare like with like.

 

[jay-c]

break in june? ahh whats the priority here wallaies or the reds ffs

 

[RedsHappy]

Break in June? I wouldn't want to be dropping matches at home. Rather a break during the Spring tour as development for other players

I think you may miscalculate. My little theory is that neither Genia nor Horwill (as examples of the 2011-derived issues I referred to) are playing anywhere near their best and indeed there is some possibility that, should they be played relentlessly in June, they will under perform again and potentially place Tests at risk against Wales (assuming as you clearly do that their positions and Wallaby contributions are important, for the good or the bad). To me, being as fresh as possible for the 4N, and especially the BC, and then looking forward to the BIL tour, are far more important medium term to the fan public as a whole than beating Wales and Scotland in June.

Pocock could Captain in June, White at 9, and there are good lock alternatives emerging. As they are playing today, will the 'loss' of say Genia and Horwill (and maybe overplayed others) make a negatively determining difference in the June Tests?...I for one am by no means sure about that.

 

[Braveheart81]

By the same argument you could say that they should both sit out Super Rugby during May.

 

[No4918]

If you do want to rest 2 of the prob first 5 players picked for the wallabies the EOYT is probably the time to do it. And even then just to the bench or against lesser sides. At least at that time the general public here will have stopped caring what happens to the Wobs results and it will mean little for the growth and promotion of the game in Aus. And given that we all cried when 2nd string teams were sent down here for the June tests it would be a bit hypocritical to turn around and do the same even if it would be nice to piss the bastards off.

 

[cyclopath]

I think RH makes a cogent point. Horwill is, at his best, a massive asset for the Reds and Oz. He is not at his best. I would think, unless he sparkles into better form soon, that there are some decent locking options going well at the moment that he could be afforded a little break. No disrespect to the incumbent captain, but it's not like the position is unable to be covered.
Of course, if he is back to his best, then let him loose!
All a moot point, as I am sure he'll be picked regardless, which is fair enough.

 

[RedsHappy]

By the same argument you could say that they should both sit out Super Rugby during May.

I shouldn't get this thread off topic, but my retort is: no, as JH and WG are, relatively, of irreplaceable importance to the Reds 2012 at present, and, with those 2 out, there's no pre-made Reds Captain with any experience in that role. Thats not true of the broader Wallabies.

 

[Viking]

form is temperary, class is permanent. Horwill, Pocock, JOC (James O'Connor), Robinson, Genia, Digby - these players id pick in my wallabies squad everytime, regardless of superXV form. (unless that form is so bad that it cant be ignored - which in this case it is not).

Only time i can see a player starting ahead of any of these players is if there form is so good it cant be ignored - and i can't see any player playing this well. (I guess Fotu falls in this catagory - but doesnt play in any of the above positions)

 

[Brumby Jack]

Brumbies

1 Ben Alexander
2 Stephen Moore
3 Dan Palmer
4 Scott Fardy
5 Sam Carter
6 Ben Mowen
7 Michael Hooper
8 Fotu Auelua
9 Nic White
10 Christian Lealiifano
11 Joe Tomane
12 Pat McCabe
13 Andrew Smith
14 Henry Speight
15 Jesse Mogg

16 Anthony Hegarty
17 Ruaidhri Murphy
18 Peter Kimlin
19 Ita Vaea
20 Ian Prior
21 Robbie Coleman
22 Tevita Kurudrani