It's worthwhile providing all of Wayne Smith's article from today as it's certainly on the money (or potential lack of same).
Western Force holding the strongest cards in Australian rugby
Wayne Smith - The Australian - 30 May 2020
It’s hard to ignore the reality that the franchise holding all the power in Australian rugby right now is the Western Force. Or, to be more precise, Andrew “Twiggy” Forrest.
Rugby Australia could have proceeded with just four teams had Forrest not agreed to the Force participating in its domestic Super Rugby AU
In McLennan’s position, it was the smart political move but it was also the correct and very necessary thing. For all their attempts to keep WA at least partially inside the tent, RA had never really admitted the grievous damage they had inflicted on the people of Perth and Western Australia.
Forrest is absolutely correct when he says he supports rugby because of its community-building capacity. But the corollary also holds true. Take a rugby club away — indeed, punish it for no other reason than the fact it was particularly vulnerable at a precise moment in time — and it rips the heart out of a community. So full credit to McLennan. Yes, it was easier for him because he had played no role in the events of 2017, but he recognised that a terrible wrong had been committed and he set out to at least partially rectify it.
Even so, Forrest didn’t make it easy for him or RA, warning that unless there was considerable change, particularly in its governance model, he could see no way that he could continue his investment beyond 2020. So the ball is now entirely in RA’s court.
Except that it’s not …
Everything is now dependent on whether interim RA chief executive Rob Clarke is able to get a signature out of Patrick Delany at Fox Sports in the coming days. If he does, the wolf will have been pushed back from the door, just for a moment. If he doesn’t, then Jessica Halloran’s story that appeared in The Australian on Thursday about the possible defections from the Melbourne Rebels will turn out to be only a quarter true.
If no broadcast deal is done, then all four Super Rugby franchises can expect a player stampede to the international airport — presuming there were any flights for them to catch. It certainly wouldn’t just be the Rebels.
All this sparring only forms the undercard to the main event: the broadcast deal from 2021-25. If Fox Sports or some other mystery buyer doesn’t come to the party with a meaningful offer, rugby will be floundering. When the previous deal was negotiated, there were five Australian teams. Now there are four and, on a per-franchise basis, the $US25m ($37.5m)-a-year Fox offer rejected by Raelene Castle would have been enough, just barely, to keep professional rugby ticking over in this country.
At the time, her rejection of Delany’s offer looked like no more than the usual argy-bargy of negotiating television rights. Now, in hindsight, it looks like Castle passed up a golden opportunity to secure the future of the sport. Not that she would have known that in those pre-coronavirus times.
In her mind, she would have needed an improved number from the broadcaster to make up for the fact that each union would, every second year, have two fewer home games from which to make money, eight down to six. The other year they would have had seven home games, all as a result of
SANZAAR’s decision to do away with the conference system and replace it with a 14-team round robin competition.
So now it is not only whether Fox will make an offer at all but, if it does, how much money will be required to keep the existing four franchises afloat.
That’s difficult to say given that RA must surely be looking at cutting at least $5m from its own headquarters’ expenses through rationalisation and mere commonsense spending, and arguably the same again collectively from the four franchises. Consider, too, the savings to be made by trimming Super Rugby squads from, say, 35 players to 30. And there will be job losses, sadly but inevitably.
Beyond that we are forced to consider culling or merging franchises, and I can imagine a number of Super Rugby bosses tuning out at this point because that is the last thing they want to hear.
Would one of the surviving franchises turn out to be the Force? Having made it back into Super Rugby — of sorts — this year, they wouldn’t take kindly to being elbowed aside in 2021. So, if there is only enough money for four, why wouldn’t a self-sufficient Force be one of them, which would leave the Rebels and Brumbies eyeing each other dubiously?
And what if there is an appetite for only three Aussie sides in a remodelled trans-Tasman competition alongside five Kiwi teams, two Japanese and one islander side? It would be unthinkable to cut the most successful Australian side, the Brumbies, but does it all come down to the states that are producing players and/or can look after themselves financially? The Waratahs, Reds and Force?
And if it transpires that there is no broadcast deal or that the money offered is pitiful, which bewilders me given that this broadcast cycle includes a tour by the British and Irish Lions in 2025, might everything then be turned on its head? Could Global Rapid Rugby become the lifeboat for professional rugby in this country? Would Forrest be able to negotiate a broadcast deal? Would he even need to? Whatever happens, Forrest will be in the middle of it all.
I admit this is all totally fanciful stuff. But when you realise that quality Australian players are taking up offers to move to the US for about $80,000 plus free accommodation for a five-month Major League Rugby contract, you get a stark sense of how unsettled the game here has become.
Small wonder Clarke told the Super Rugby franchise bosses on Thursday that he understood the need for urgency. Until there is success on the broadcast front, they are sitting ducks for overseas clubs and player agents with cashflow problems.
(In my view it's unlikely that there'll be any player move to the USA due to work visa restrictions)
