As with most tests, the forwards are most likely to decide this one.
For the Wallabies to have a chance, our forwards have to muscle up and be competitive. Whilst our set piece has to give us a reasonable share of the ball, our forwards have to compete in the contact area and get us over the advantage line. Last year we didn't do this reasonably until the third Bledisloe.
People have generally lauded McKenzie's selection decisions since he took over because he has picked on form significantly more than previous coaches (and not just Deans). On that basis it's also hard to argue with Beale and AAC (Adam Ashley-Cooper)'s selections. The good thing for the Wallabies is that the two players relegated to the bench were also in fine form.
Foley was decent during the French series but he wasn't a great creator for the backline. Likewise at the Tahs, Beale has been the player most instrumental in driving the attack and making the key attacking decisions. It's not that Foley wasn't also involved, it's just that Beale did it more and did it better.
I think McKenzie has sized up his options and decided that taking the conservative approach into the first Bledisloe might not be his best chance to win the game. As Morlock said yesterday, you don't win Bledisloe tests just by playing well. You've got to be even better than that. I think McKenzie doesn't want to get to 9:30pm on Saturday night and be thinking that whilst Foley and Kuridrani didn't deserve to be dropped to the bench, the rugby he's been witnessing in the last couple of months gave him every indication that AAC (Adam Ashley-Cooper), one of his key players, was in the form of his life at 13 and Beale was the one creating the bulk of the opportunities for the Super Rugby winning Waratahs.
