Australia v British & Irish Lions, 3rd Test (Sydney)

[BPC]

Also hoping that the 6-2 split doesn't bite us in the arse. We don't really have any fresh/impact backs to come on either for injury or general replacement.)

It's not a risk, I mean, when was the last time our backline was decimated by injury? It has to be at least a couple of weeks ago. Practically in another era.

 

[JSRF10]

It's not a risk, I mean, when was the last time our backline was decimated by injury? It has to be at least a couple of weeks ago. Practically in another era.

In the same way Gatland is gambling on a one dimensional team with no plan B, Dingo is gambling that if history won't repeat itself and he'll have fresh forwards to counter anything that the Lions are boshing up the middle.

One gamble is a good calculated one, the other is (in Einsteins words) the definition of insanity.

 

[barbarian]

It's not a risk, I mean, when was the last time our backline was decimated by injury? It has to be at least a couple of weeks ago. Practically in another era.

But we were fucked with a 5-3 split in Brisbane, so in reality if it happens again we will be fucked regardless of who is there.

I don't have qualms with the 6-2 split, just the fact that Mogg is one of the 2. If it was Horne then no dramas. It is very unlikely you are going to lose more than one back to injury, where it is quite likely an underdone George Smith may tire badly at the back end of the game.
.

 

[Try-ranosaurus Rex]

(whether Smith shits to 6 or Hooper plays there is somewhat unknown and probably not that relevant. Smith will be more focused on competing at the breakdown whichever position he is packing in the scrum).

Old school. Left and right. Love it.

 

[Cassius88]

I don't have qualms with the 6-2 split, just the fact that Mogg is one of the 2. If it was Horne then no dramas. It is very unlikely you are going to lose more than one back to injury, where it is quite likely an underdone George Smith may tire badly at the back end of the game.
.

Completely agree. If Horne were on the bench and Beale got injured, Folau could move to fullback where he has played most of the year, with Horne going to outside and AAC (Adam Ashley-Cooper) pushing to the wing. With Mogg on the bench, if AAC (Adam Ashley-Cooper) goes down we are well and truly fucked. Considering AAC (Adam Ashley-Cooper) has essentially been playing injured all tour, it's not a huge leap to think he's a fairly good chance to get injured. I really hope that it ends up working out alright, but jeez Deans seems to make things needlessly complicated.

 

[RoffsChoice]

Tomane has been the 13 in the backline when required last year and this year, similarly you have seen JOC (James O'Connor) defending there throughout the series. If there is an injury to AAC (Adam Ashley-Cooper), it will be awful, but we have cover on the field who has done the job before.

 

[Braveheart81]

My guess regarding Mogg on the bench instead of Horne is to minimize the reshuffle in the event of someone needing to be replaced.

Whilst the biggest risk is that one of our centres (particularly AAC (Adam Ashley-Cooper)) goes down, I think the choice of Mogg over Horne is to avoid our centres having to move if Mogg comes on (at any place other than centre).

If a winger goes off I expect Mogg will just play on the wing. If fullback goes down, Mogg will play fullback and if JOC (James O'Connor) goes down, Beale moves to 10 and Mogg plays fullback.

If Horne was the player on the bench then the only positions he can play are 12 or 13 and any injury will require us to shift our centres.

I think the underlying thinking is that the only reason we want to shift AAC (Adam Ashley-Cooper) out of 13 is if AAC (Adam Ashley-Cooper) gets injured.

 

[rugbysmartarse]

Been thinking about the McCalman selection. so just humour me.

We know that Mowan sat out sessions during the week. Simmons is the only other lineout caller so that might be why he has been on the bench.

Also Douglas didn’t look that great last week, and Smith hast played for a long time.

Is deans hedging his bets by having Hooper Cover for Smith, McCalman as cover for Mowan (who might as a slight injury) and Palu (lets face it he is made of glass) but he cant drop Simmons because then the lineout would be stuffed.

We would all love to see MMM or Kimlin as a 4/6 cover to give us another back cover but that then might leave i exposed in the forwards.

Just trying to get into Deans thinking which we all know is a very hard thing to do.

agree that mcCalman is the trade off for starting Smith, but why no centre cover?

 

[Swat]

I think the underlying thinking is that the only reason we want to shift AAC (Adam Ashley-Cooper) out of 13 is if AAC (Adam Ashley-Cooper) gets injured.

With 2 dads leaving the field last week with an injury do you think it's too much of a gamble?

 

[Bruwheresmycar]

If Both centres get injured then JOC (James O'Connor) and Tomane will play there. Then you have Phipps on the wing but hopefully this will occur later in the game (if at all).

It's definitely a risk for Robbie to take, but to beat the Lions I'm sure you need to take risks.

 

[Braveheart81]

With 2 dads leaving the field last week with an injury do you think it's too much of a gamble?

It is definitely a risk, but I figure Deans views the centre combination as being crucial to our chances and wouldn't want to see that upset by an injury to 10, 11, 14, or 15 which could all require AAC (Adam Ashley-Cooper) to move.

 

[Scotty]

Yes he seems to be playing a hybrid flyhalf/fullback role. He is probably the only person in the country who can do it! And how good is his pass!


I am being sarcastic. Really I am!

Yeah, it is just an unbelievably amazing strategy from Deans. I don't know where found the inspiration to come up with it.

He truly is a genius.

 

[KOB1987]

Never, ever want to see Genia playing 10 again. If he's on the field, he must stay at 9 where he is best in the world. If necessary, Phipps to wing where he has done ok in the past.

I'm not a fan of it either, it's a last resort option though if we are trailing and we lose a back with 10 to go or something like that. And possibly that is part of the rationale with the 6:2 split, the knowledge that Fanga can cover wing as well as 9.

 

[Scotty]

Been thinking about the McCalman selection. so just humour me.

We know that Mowan sat out sessions during the week. Simmons is the only other lineout caller so that might be why he has been on the bench.

Also Douglas didn’t look that great last week, and Smith hast played for a long time.

Is deans hedging his bets by having Hooper Cover for Smith, McCalman as cover for Mowan (who might as a slight injury) and Palu (lets face it he is made of glass) but he cant drop Simmons because then the lineout would be stuffed.

We would all love to see MMM or Kimlin as a 4/6 cover to give us another back cover but that then might leave i exposed in the forwards.

Just trying to get into Deans thinking which we all know is a very hard thing to do.

Provided there are no injuries to the forwards, I would put odds on this being the strategy:

Replacements at around 20-25 to go:

Kepu for Alexander
Simmons for Douglas
Hooper for Palu

Replacements at around 10-15 to go:

Slipper for Robinson
McCalman for Smith only if he is struggling

80 Minute players:

Moore
Horwill
Mowen
Smith (with Robbie's fingers crossed)

McCalman is there for cover for Smith & Mowen. Hooper isn't injury cover, he is an impact sub.

 

[mark_s]

So who plays 13 if AAC (Adam Ashley-Cooper) gets injured? Is there anyopne else in the 23 who has ever played a game at 13?

Feel sorry for Gill, but it will be great to see G Smith run out one more time

 

[KOB1987]

So who plays 13 if AAC (Adam Ashley-Cooper) gets injured? Is there anyopne else in the 23 who has ever played a game at 13?

Feel sorry for Gill, but it will be great to see G Smith run out one more time

refer the previous 5 pages of this thread!

 

[Slim 293]

So who plays 13 if AAC (Adam Ashley-Cooper) gets injured?

The answer for this and every other injury scenario is simple:

George Smith.

 

[charcoal]

If Deans has such a high regard for Smith why the hell was he not a part of our previous world cup.

 

[Scotty]

My guess regarding Mogg on the bench instead of Horne is to minimize the reshuffle in the event of someone needing to be replaced.

Whilst the biggest risk is that one of our centres (particularly AAC (Adam Ashley-Cooper)) goes down, I think the choice of Mogg over Horne is to avoid our centres having to move if Mogg comes on (at any place other than centre).

If a winger goes off I expect Mogg will just play on the wing. If fullback goes down, Mogg will play fullback and if JOC (James O'Connor) goes down, Beale moves to 10 and Mogg plays fullback.

If Horne was the player on the bench then the only positions he can play are 12 or 13 and any injury will require us to shift our centres.

I think the underlying thinking is that the only reason we want to shift AAC (Adam Ashley-Cooper) out of 13 is if AAC (Adam Ashley-Cooper) gets injured.

You are probably right, but it doesn't make it the right decision. Mogg is both on debut and has some question over his defense. Horne is experienced, in form and has great defense. It is clear that the Lions are going to attack us in the midfield, and if AAC (Adam Ashley-Cooper) goes do it leaves us exposed both in terms of experience and tackle effectiveness.

Anyway if Horne was on the bench it doesn't mean that AAC (Adam Ashley-Cooper) needs to move if a wing goes down? Simply move Lilo to 10 and JOC (James O'Connor) to wing?

Lilo will play 10 25% of the time anyway (JOC (James O'Connor) 25%, Beale 50%).

 

[Braveheart81]

If Deans has such a high regard for Smith why the hell was he not a part of our previous world cup.

He lived and played overseas.