T
TOCC
Guest
You can tell because the brumbies actually have a sponsor on that jersey
Aussie Player Exodus
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Omar Comin'
Chilla Wilson (44)
I'm more optimistic. I think it could be less than that. 10 years.
If the Japanese and Argentinian Super Rugby teams are a success then I think we'd see more Japanese/Asian teams and more Argentinian teams pretty quickly. Then the tournament structure can become more sensible. And I'd like to hope that North American involvement in Super Rugby is possible too.
Either way I predict the Japanese and North American national teams will progress significantly in the next 5 years. To the point where all would be reasonably competitive in the rugby championship. Maybe it would take them time to be genuine threats, but they wouldn't be worse than Italy in the 6 Nations.
Quick Hands
David Wilson (68)
I think you're right about US, Canada and Japan maybe only being 5 years away but certainly inside 10. It really depends on when USA Rugby can get a professional league going and I'm hopeful this might be in the next year or 2.
The PI nations are further away if at all, but IMO it's a worthy objective and not only would it benefit rugby, it would benefit those 3 nations (more than in just a rugby sense) and it's just the right thing to do.
T
TOCC
Guest
US, Canada and Japan will be competitive with SANZAR nations within 5 years?
What is your definition of competitive?
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What is your definition of competitive?
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These are impoverished countries with tiny populations. How does it make sense to have a local professional rugby team where players are earning 50-100 or more times the average income if their salaries were to be in line with other Super Rugby teams etc.?
They might produce more than enough quality rugby players who have the ability to be professional rugby players but the economies don't support that in any way shape or form. That is where the idea falls down there.
It's like saying that there should be a professional marathon league in Kenya because it's the right thing to do because that country produces many of the great long distance runners.
Professional rugby players are well paid but in general outside of the really top players, their salaries aren't grossly out of whack with the rest of the society they belong to. It's the economy that drives the prospect of professionalism, not the players that become the professionals.
Omar Comin'
Chilla Wilson (44)
Argentina's level in the last 2-3 years. Occasionally hammered, more often than not a respectable loss and a win possible on a good day.
Follow the trends. The first decade or so after professionalism the gap between tier 1 and tier 2 increased. This is reflected in average win margins at RWC (peaking in 2003). Since then the gap has shrunk, and I expect it to decrease further.
I think they're closer already than a lot of people think. They just rarely get to play tier 1 teams at full strength with any kind of decent preparation. If they did then they'd improve a lot quicker.
The US, Canada and Japan have all played some excellent matches in the last couple of years. It's easy to look at a result like the All Blacks match in Chicago, but you have to put it in perspective. The American team (or at least their core of professional players) had a few days to prepare for a match against a New Zealand side that had just gone through the Rugby Championship and essentially been in camp together for months.
Japan played the NZ Maori on the same day and got thumped 61-21. Going by that result you'd conclude they're no where near good enough for even Super Rugby. But they played a 2nd match the next weekend and lost 18-20, with the Maori only winning it with a last minute try.
I don't think this is really the case. Argentina have been consistently up there for a long while.
1999 RWC they beat Samoa and almost beat Wales. It was a different format then and they beat Ireland in a playoff to make the quarter finals.
2003 RWC they lost by 1 point to Ireland which meant they missed out on the quarters.
2007 they topped their group beating France and Ireland and then beat Scotland in the quarter finals.
2011 they beat Scotland to finish 2nd in their group and only lost to England by 4 points and again made the quarter finals.
Strewthcobber
Andrew Slack (58)
Argentina consistently beat the likes of France Ireland and Australia through the 70s and 80s as well.
Canada and USA have never been at their level
T
TOCC
Guest
Argentina has had dozens of players playing in the top club comps in Europe for years now and have at times been considered some of the beat in the comp, that's a reflection of the quality of player emerging from Argentina..
A few test players from Japan, Canada and the US have tried their hand at Super Rugby or the European Leagues and very few could hold stating spots.
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A few test players from Japan, Canada and the US have tried their hand at Super Rugby or the European Leagues and very few could hold stating spots.
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Quick Hands
David Wilson (68)
The first step is the US adn Canada setting up their own professional league. I understand that USA rugby might not be that far away. These things are done in stages, but you also need an ultimate goal in mind.
Otherwise we'd still have NSW and Qld playing a 3 match series every year and nothing else.
Otherwise we'd still have NSW and Qld playing a 3 match series every year and nothing else.
matty_k
Peter Johnson (47)
I saw that too. I was wondering how observant others were.
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Slim 293
Stirling Mortlock (74)
You can tell because the brumbies actually have a sponsor on that jersey
And who still wears BLK? That's so 2013...........
Omar Comin'
Chilla Wilson (44)
They've defeated Wales (minus their Lions) and Italy in the last 2 years. At full strength they're already competitive with the lower tier 1 nations.
Next year they'll be in Super Rugby and they'll improve considerably as a result. The 2019 world cup is a massive goal. And after that they might well be ready for entry into the Rugby Championship. Perhaps not a title threat for several years, but sometimes you have to jump into the deep end! If SANZAR was run by the AFL, the Japanese and the Americans would probably already be involved in some way. They'd recognise the potential of the markets and have a proper crack at them.
Omar Comin'
Chilla Wilson (44)
Strewthcobber said:
I never said they have.
I was asked how I would define competitive with the Rugby Championship teams and I answered Argentina's level in the last 2-3 years. And for the record, Argentina's level in the last 2-3 years has certainly not been at an all time high for them.
In 5 years, if given regular opportunity to play tier 1 teams, I think Japan, USA and Canada will be at or around that level of competitiveness. Probably not with the same depth Argentina have, but capable of that level when they have their best players on the park.
Japan because of the influence of better coaching in the Top League and the entry into Super Rugby; USA because the recent boom in youth rugby will filter through to the top levels, a local professional league will likely begin and more and more players are getting opportunities in top European squads; and Canada because they'll be lifted up with the US.
And importantly, all these nations have had decent crowds for test matches in the last few years when playing against tier 1 opponents. There is a rugby market already there and SANZAR would be insane to ignore it.
T
TOCC
Guest
Whilst impressive wins, I have to point out both those teams were vastly weakened touring squads..
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T
TOCC
Guest
The pathway to improve the test team is to first improve the domestic rugby competition.. For the USA and Canada this means firstly establishing a professional competition, and then from there slowly developing the talent pathway and academy programs to promote the right talent.. It will take a few years to reach maturity and then a few more years for the talent to be identified but it will lay the foundations for a better test team..
So let's say hypothetically a professional comp is started in 2016, it'll probably be another 4 to 5 years before the talent identification(11 -16yr olds) and development pathway start to produce players for the professional teams and flow into the test team..
Realistically I think we're looking at 2021/2022 before there would be any real improvement at the test level if a professional competition is established next year..
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So let's say hypothetically a professional comp is started in 2016, it'll probably be another 4 to 5 years before the talent identification(11 -16yr olds) and development pathway start to produce players for the professional teams and flow into the test team..
Realistically I think we're looking at 2021/2022 before there would be any real improvement at the test level if a professional competition is established next year..
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