Forget all the talk about the decline of the Springboks. This weekend’s clash between New Zealand and South Africa promises to be a wonderful occasion and should be just as intense and competitive as any previous test match between these two traditional foes.
Any time the two best teams square off against each other, there is plenty at stake. Bragging rights mean as much as IRB ranking points and both teams will be keen to gain a psychological advantage over their opponent with next year’s Rugby World Cup just around the corner. Not only is this game an epic, stand-alone fixture in its own right, but it shapes up as being absolutely crucial in determining this season’s Rugby Championship winner.
Both teams have suffered set backs so far in this tournament. The All Blacks were lucky to hold on for a draw in Sydney, whilst the Springboks played poorly in back to back games against Argentina before suffering an unlucky loss at Subiaco. The team that wins this game will take a healthy points lead into the pusiness end of the tournament. The Springboks have their backs to the wall, but historically that has been when they have been at their best and most dangerous.
The All Blacks are undefeated since late 2012 and field a surprisingly settled team given the high number of first choice players who are missing through injury. Dan Carter, Tony Woodcock, Jerome Kaino, Sam Whitelock and Liam Messam are all out injured, but as always with the All Blacks their replacements are not just capable, they’re exceptional. And they’re hungry for opportunity and grateful for the chance to wear the black jersey.
Coach Steve Hansen will be pleased with his team’s success this season, although privately he would concede that the All Blacks’ performances have not always been consistent or top shelf. He will be acutely aware that even a Springbok team low in confidence and in relatively poor form will pose a severe challenge for his charges come Saturday evening. And anything less than a complete, 80 minute performance by the All Blacks could result in a costly defeat.
Aaron Cruden has recovered from injury and rightfully reclaims his no.10 jersey, forcing Beaudan Barrett back to the reserves where he will cover both flyhalf and fullback.
Injuries to both Liam Messam and Jerome Kaino sees Steven Luatua promoted to the starting XV, where he will combine with Crusaders duo Kieran Read and Richie McCaw in the backrow.
This is a massive opportunity for Luatua to redeem himself and win back the respect of his teammates and coaches. An indifferent start to the 2014 season, where he struggled with form and fitness, saw him unceremoniously dumped from the squad during the England series. The Springboks are always physical, priding themselves on their strength and power and Steven Luatua will be called upon to provide a physical presence both on defense, at the breakdown collisions and when countering rolling mauls. Of great interest will be how he combines with Kieran Read, as both players are at their best playing wider in attack. Don’t be surprised if Luatua is under instruction to play a much tighter role on Saturday night.
Israel Dagg has deservedly retained his spot at 15. Find of the season Malachai Fekitoa drops off an All Black bench which is notable for its lack of midfield cover. Right winger Ben Smith can cover centre, but no-one in the match day XXIII has played any meaningful minutes at second five eighth. Steve Hansen will no doubt be praying that his talismanic no.12 Ma’a Nonu can avoid injury for the duration of the game.
The Springboks were left stunned and disappointed after their last gasp loss to the Wallabies in Perth, and coach Heyneke Meyer’s men will know that a loss this weekend will end their chances of winning this year’s silverware. Meyer dropped a stunning selection bombshell this week, replacing experienced flyhalf Morne Steyn with the preciously talented but inexperienced Handre Pollard.
South African U20s captain Pollard’s selection has been a game changer this week. It’s redefined the team, redefined Meyer as a coach and could potentially redefine the way the Springboks play. It’s immensely risky but potentially hugely rewarding. Fast tracking Pollard’s career in such a bold fashion could be Meyer’s best ever decision as a professional coach. Pollard’s ability to handle the step up from under 20s level to the All Blacks will be crucial in determining the outcome of this match. The risk Meyer has taken is that Pollard is not quite ready to face a team of the standard of New Zealand, and his confidence is dented.
Elsewhere the Springboks team is settled. Ruan Pienaar has his critics, but provides a calming influence at scrumhalf. Captain Jean de Villiers has received glowing platitudes from both Richie McCaw and Steve Hansen this week in the lead up to his 100th test match and his combination with young Bulls centre Jan Serfontein will be crucial, especially defensively. In Vermuelen and Louw the Springboks boast two of the most physical and hardest working loose forwards in test rugby. Matfield and Etzebeth performed well in the lineouts against the Wallabies, and in the absence of Sam Whitelock will be looking to apply immense pressure on the All Black jumpers.
The scrum battle will be intriguing and potentially match deciding. By their own high standards the Springbok scrum was poor against the Pumas, and forwards coach Johann van Graan has worked hard to rectify this facet of their game. The scrummaged well against the Wallabies in Perth and will be looking to gain the ascendency again on Saturday night. Tenda Mtawarira and Janie du Plessis are both physical, highly experienced props and the smaller, less-credentialed All Black front 5 may struggle to deliver a stable platform from which to attack. Wyatt Crockett arguably exceeded expectations against the Pumas in Napier, but will need to match that performance if he is to establish himself as a genuine, long term contender for Tony Woodcock’s Loosehead position.
There are so many intriguing individual match-ups right across the park, as you’d expect when the best two teams in the world are playing. However arguably the most important and decisive contest will be the battle of the coaching teams. The battle of tactics and strategy. Steve Hansen has been on the charm offensive this week and has openly admitted to liking and respecting his opposing head coach, Heyneke Meyer. Both men are incredibly driven and will have been targeting this match all year. Whoever’s team can employ the best tactics, play to the referee and the conditions and nullify their opposition’s strengths will triumph. Meyer has set the tone tactically for the week by introducing rising star Pollard. How Hansen responds to this will be very interesting.
The Springboks have the talent and the capacity to play open, expansive and attacking rugby. However when placed under pressure they often revert back to the conservative, risk averse, 10 man style which defines South African Rugby. They will need to do more than just kick and chase against NZ if they are to be victorious in two days’ time. And in Handre Pollard, Meyer has selected a flyhalf capable of playing an attacking brand of rugby. Let’s just hope we see this on Saturday night.
Look I am pretty sure Pollards defense , distribution and attacking skills is much better then Morne, even Lambie. Pollard wont shy away from the physical exchanges and wont mind getting his pants dirty. JLP & Morne dont like dirty pants. Pollard place and line kicking is top notch. Its between the ears that may hurt him now but he sure have the talent to become the worlds prime 10. It may not happen now , but he'll get there. He is a real hard worker and a cool head.
