2012 Rugby Championship Game 1 Australia vs New Zealand - 18 August

[waratahjesus]

I think I'm the odd one out here, while I would personally make a couple of changes to the team, I'm not sure even if the 22 was all my personnel preference that I would feel any more confident of a wallaby victory.

That said, I'm happy to embrace the underdog. We're playing the world champs in a match were not expected to win. I just hope the boys come out full of piss and vinaigre and give the blacks and the fans something to remember.

 

[FrankLind]

If the do come out firing, the Men in Gold have a very good chance of winning. A very good chance.

I think the "rock star" midfield partnership of SBW and Nonu will lack cohesiveness and might be weak on defence (though not physically obviously) and the ABs will realize just how much they need Conrad Smith.

 

[Joe Blow]

My gut feeling this weekend is Barnes and Genia will be ordered to do a lot of kicking.

I don't think so Biggsy. We have a backs division that will be very hard to break through the centres. Sharpie eluded to the Wallabies holding onto the ball in the podcast and it has also been mentioned by several others in the lead up to this test.
Deans is going to try and take them on up front. The bench selection backs this up.
Our backrow is very mobile and our back 3 are excellent on the counter. I think we will attempt to shut down SBW/Nonu and force DC to kick for territory.

Not sure if they can pull it off but it sure will be interesting watching them try.

 

[Jiggles]

I think the "rock star" midfield partnership of SBW and Nonu will lack cohesiveness and might be weak on defence (though not physically obviously) and the ABs will realize just how much they need Conrad Smith.

I think that is definitely a weakness. However I am not confident we have firepower or tactics to exploit it. We haven't really seen players coming at depth and pace into the outside channel since France 2010. Barnes doesn't really take it to the line then pass, which is vital. He either shovels it league style or attacks the line by holding up the ball and ghosting through a gap. Maybe Digby will attack that line from the blind side, but it would be a departure from how he has been used for the Reds and Wallabies in the past, and it would require a longer flatter ball from Barnes (I haven't seen that yet) or a pop in or out by one of the centres, which is even less likely to happen.

Very nice thought though.

 

[Groucho]

I would bet if I was 100% confident but I am not. I am more of a realist. The pressure to win is now firmly on the Wallabies shoulders as well (it is always on the ABs) and God knows they have surprised us before.

Mate I was just jerking your chain. You're right. The Wallabies do have it in them to lose some games this year. Us Aussies can only hope it is an on year not an off year.

 

[Riptide]

The fever pitch of negativity around this team is pretty impressive, especially when it really only comes down to two selections: Barnes over Cooper, and then Timani over, well, anyone by the looks.

It seems to me that the Wobs are looking for more physicality and toughness in defence - Sharpie said as much in our podcast. Looks like Totality Tony is looking to put some Munster in us, and I don't think we'd be unhappy about that would we? Do we really think we're going to beat NZ 6 tries to 5? (most likely trying that it would wind up 2 tries to 6)

I think this is an attitude re-adjustment that we Australian rugby supporters need - from howling about exaggerated memories of attacking champagne rugby to being first and foremost concerned about being able to muscle up to test match rugby against the best.

I reckon the controversial selections are in this vein. Yes, there are questions to be answered, but so would there be if you stuck Cooper and Pyle/Simmons whoever else in there.

I'm interested to see how this goes before I completely lose my shit.

But then we have TPN over Nandos?. In what Deansian landscape is TPN more accomplished than Moore to be accurate, and more disciplined?

I have no problem with a new mindset or tactical approach to the game, but then I scream when I see the selections of TPN and Timani (and even Higgers at 8) being completely at odds with that approach.

 

[Riptide]

Most folks will be saying "I told you so" but it will have little impact because their intended audience will be doing it also. It will be a contest to be the most sarcastic and virulent so others will notice what they are saying.

If we lose I may visit the thread come Tuesday to spot the winner.

Meantime I will be at the game and hoping to see what I saw in the first Bledisloe match with Deans as coach. It was an unexpected win at the same ground.

We have a bread and butter team with not much jam in it.

So many times we have seen the All Blacks play winning rugby with hard-nosed, no-frills play; just basic stuff and they beat us in small moments that can become big moments seconds later. They have flair but it is underwritten by about 15-20 years experience in each player working to gain small victories and being rugby-wise enough to do so.

I'm not sure if our players can contend man for man like that, especially in the forwards, but I will be looking for it on Saturday night. They played small moments well against Wales and ground out wins; if this lot can't do it there aren't a lot of grinders left to try.
.

Lee, I agree with all of this and feel that the Wallabies must front up with the intensity they exhibited in Brisbane last year or they will be battered. The ABs are now without the hardened muscle of Kaino and Thorn and their replacements (assume Messam and Rettalick) are simply not like-for-like. While I worry about our starting selections of Timani and TPN upfront (and Higgers capacity to play a tight 8), it'll be the full 22 banging bodies against their full 22. No individual player will be that exposed in such a tight encounter except through error and ill-discipline (again TPN and Timani) I expect the bodies will be flying this Saturday. Owen is the ref and he'll allow a contest for the ball and so I expect the breakdown will be a torrid, brutal affair with winners to be decided at the margin, but for me it's that margin that will ultimately decide the outcome; there will be no space to be had anywhere this Saturday.

Another area of concern is the Fainga'a/Horne combination - they offer nothing at Test level while their opposites can be managed into the game and brought onto the ball by a brilliant ball player in Carter/Cruden.

 

[Riptide]

NZ team announced...
Israel Dagg, Cory Jane, Ma'a Nonu, Sonny Bill Williams, Hosea Gear, Dan Carter, Aaron Smith, Kieran Read, Richie McCaw, Liam Messam, Sam Whitelock, Luke Romano, Owen Franks, Keven Mealamu, Tony Woodcock.
Bench: Andrew Hore, Ben Franks, Brodie Retallick, Victor Vito, Piri Weepu, Aaron Cruden, Ben Smith.

Romano gets in ahead of Retallick and Gear over Savea but no real surprises. Savea, Tamati Ellison, Sam Cane, Crockett and Thomson miss the cut entirely. Christ that is some depth.

 

[Scorz]

Happy with that team apart from Rettallick, who should start. Bigfoot Romano... I'm not convinced. Vito shouldn't be there, he's done nothing so far. I guess Richie wants the 80mins at 7 and Cane only plays 7.

If SBW hadn't turned up I'd have run with Cruden, DC, Nonu. But SBW is in some serious form so happy days.

Gear better do it this weekend. Second lifeline extended.

And Ben Franks is a lucky brother. Still haven't seen him be "immense" "destructive" or "integral" in any game. Ever.

 

[Riptide]

Gear, a "2nd lifeline extended"? I can't recall him disappointing in any Tests in which he has played in recent years. Every time he gets the call, he plays well. For some reason, the NZ selectors look at alternatives. Kahui's steady less explosive game can be explained for tournament play like the RWC I suppose but there is nobody on the field this Saturday who can finish better Gear. His aerial game seems to have improved also.

 

[fatprop]

I don't think so Biggsy. We have a backs division that will be very hard to break through the centres. Sharpie eluded to the Wallabies holding onto the ball in the podcast and it has also been mentioned by several others in the lead up to this test.
Deans is going to try and take them on up front. The bench selection backs this up.
Our backrow is very mobile and our back 3 are excellent on the counter. I think we will attempt to shut down SBW/Nonu and force DC to kick for territory.

Not sure if they can pull it off but it sure will be interesting watching them try.

Yeah, keeping the ball and kicking into the grandstand should be the plan.

The challenge will be seeing if we can keep getting enough units to the ball to stop isolating carriers for 80 minutes.

 

[Dan54]

I reasonably happy with AB team, I not sure how SBW/Nonu will work, but noone ever can be sure of different centre combos, Scorz I not to concerned about Retallic on bench he has had huge season for Chiefs, Cane I think will be nursed into test rugby for ahile yet,would expect Messam to cover 7 and Vito 6 or 8. All in all,off to Sydney tomorrow and now both teams named getting pretty bloody excited!!

 

[Schadenfreude]

If the criticisms are justifiable and you keep it level headed then you will be fine.

How about one out of two?

 

[The Red Baron]

That is a pretty fine AB team. If we aren't accurate with our long range kicking, either Dagg will return it with interest or the AB counter attack will tear us to shreds.

If we are going to kick the crap out of the ball, lets hope that we hit the corners all night!

Even though Robbies tactics usually leave a lot to be desired, I think that there is a weakness in the AB centres. SBW is in good form and he has worked off of Carter before, but I think his combo with Nonu could lead to a bit of a stunted NZ attack. Finger is marking him too, and Finger usually does a good job of keeping Sonny Bill quiet.

I think we are hoping to capitalise on the outside centre (Nonu in this case) being caught out of position defensively. Gotta get the ball out that far before we can go testing him though!

I would like to see Diggers coming through between Finger and Horne. He might get smashed, but he might get through if Nonu pushes too wide.

Problem is, Nonu is a good player. He always steps up a gear when he dons the black, doesn't matter which position he plays.

Obviously I want the Wallabies to win, but either way, I hope it is a cracker of a game.

 

[biggsy]

If your gut feeling is correct and Barnes boots away and Genia box kicks at every opportunity, I stand with TBH on this - The Wallabies will be slaughtered so badly that the resulting cull might get them a place on the UN endangered species list.

Can I suggest that if the worst happens, we all take a deep breath and count to infinity before taking our anger out on the forums.

Prior posting preparation prevents piss-poor performance lifetime bans.

Ok

 

[Gagger]

But then we have TPN over Nandos?. In what Deansian landscape is TPN more accomplished than Moore to be accurate, and more disciplined?

I have no problem with a new mindset or tactical approach to the game, but then I scream when I see the selections of TPN and Timani (and even Higgers at 8) being completely at odds with that approach.

Yeah, fairdos, except I believe the thinking behind TPN and Timani is to make up for the lack of Palu and balance out the Higgers-boson particle

 

[SaderCheif]

I think far too many people are writing off the Wobs ATM.
Reminds me of France the week leading up to the WC final...
The last time it was this negative VS the ABs it was the 10 game win streak just before Hong Kong, when the Wobs had just had enough.
Could be an ambush on our hand here, but then again I always feel this way VS the Wallabies.

 

[Lee Enfield]

After seeing the AB team, the Wallabies can't afford any aimless or inaccurate kicking, that backline will create havoc. The Wallaby forwards are going to have to play out of their skin if Aus are any chance of winning. If our forwards slack off or never really get into to the contest, their backline is going to rack up some serious points. The Wallaby backline does not have the firepower to match it with All Black backs.

 

[matty_k]

How about one out of two?

I think you can work it out.

 

[tooms]

It really depends which Wallaby team shows up ... If it's the one from the Brisbane Test last year, then it's going to be a cracker! If it's the one from the WC Semi, then it's going to be a dud!