2012 Rugby Championship Game 1 Australia vs New Zealand - 18 August

[Nelse]

Honestly could be worse. Dennis has been rewarded for a solid super rugby season. I suspect Beale and Barnes will swap positions over the course of the game, giving the backline a solid pivot when needed, but also having the potential to spark something. Centres are a bit of a worry, but Deans seems to prefer 2 hard runners and defensive centres to a 2nd 5.

Timani had better step up. Luckiest man in the 15. I would have had Simmons any day starting over him. Also, Nic White is unlucky to miss out on the bench position. Hope he just warms the bench.

 

[fatprop]

That's the problem though isn't it.
I agree that it appears that our only chance to beat the AB's is to go "all in" and punt on Quade.
But Quade has not demonstrated the form since he returned that would justify "putting your house" on him.
A couple of big losses to the AB's and Robbie knows he will get shot.
He can handle a couple of honourable narrow losses, but not any blowouts.
Back self preservation every time.

Coopers work with the Reds on one and a half legs to start "demonstrated form"

The Reds would never have made the semis without him

 

[Swat]

What is TPN still doing in the starting side?

Timani is lucky. Simmons playing consistently near his best is definitely a better choice but who knows what we will get. Both bad options.

Good to see the end of Alexander at test level.

Cannot see how Samo on the bench provides anything. Cooper must have done the dirty on Dingo's daughter to lose his bench spot to him.

I think the only thing holding simmons back is him constantly loitering on the wrong side of the ruck and holding people down, I know everyone does it but someone teach him the art of subtlety.

 

[kronic]

Oh btw. Nine don't seem to be showing the game LIVE outside of NSW/QLD as usual.

 

[GaffaCHinO]

Nic White is just hanging around as cover. He needs shoulder surgery but they have but that on hold.

 

[I like to watch]

That sort of of reinforces my point. "one and a half legs" seems to indicate that you agree with me that he was not playing at his max.
I'm pretty sure QC (Quade Cooper) lost significant brownie points with RD in NZ last year, so unless he was in sublime form he was never going to be picked.
Again, this is my reading of RD's thinking on the matter.I would prefer to punt on selections and tactics, because I believe that conservative selections/game plan ensure an honourable loss.Their cattle is better than our cattle in most positions.

 

[fatprop]

Mate Larkham played for years thanks to gaffer tape

 

[Braveheart81]

I definitely thought that McCabe's injury gave Deans a fairly easy decision to move Barnes to 12 and bring Cooper in at 10.

I can see Deans' reasoning for not doing it though. From a reputational point of view it's a risky decision moving your fly half who was man of the match in two of the three tests against the 6N Champions.

If he'd made that change and Cooper doesn't star and you lose badly, it doesn't give you much room to move.

 

[Richo]

I definitely thought that McCabe's injury gave Deans a fairly easy decision to move Barnes to 12 and bring Cooper in at 10.

I can see Deans' reasoning for not doing it though. From a reputational point of view it's a risky decision moving your fly half who was man of the match in two of the three tests against the 6N Champions.

If he'd made that change and Cooper doesn't star and you lose badly, it doesn't give you much room to move.

All of which makes sense, but if true means that Deans is making choices that are best for him first and the team second.

Personally, I'd rather see Australia playing attacking rugby, chance their arm and try to take on the ABs than play a conservative, keep-it-close, at-least-we-won't-lose-by-too-much strategy.

 

[Joe Blow]

I definitely thought that McCabe's injury gave Deans a fairly easy decision to move Barnes to 12 and bring Cooper in at 10.

I can see Deans' reasoning for not doing it though. From a reputational point of view it's a risky decision moving your fly half who was man of the match in two of the three tests against the 6N Champions.

If he'd made that change and Cooper doesn't star and you lose badly, it doesn't give you much room to move.

He needs to be picking a side that has the best chance of winning, not one that he feels(wrongly)has the best chance of limiting reputation damage to him personally.
Let's face it, his reputation is getting sucked down the gurgler rapidly and a close loss with a very conservatively chosen side will not slow that down.

Only a win could do that.

 

[Braveheart81]

If you do that and get flogged by 30 points in the first test, where do you go then?

Do you persist with Cooper at 10 in the hope that the combination comes good or do you revert to Barnes who played well at 10 in a recent 3-0 series victory?

 

[Lee Enfield]

Just as well we have a brilliant game plan, Beale, Ioane, Fainga'a and Horne punching holes through the defence of Sonny Bill and Nonu. I was worried about how we were going to score tries with that back line, but now that I know we intend to shoot 5.56mm rounds at Abram tanks, I am not worried at all, we will be punching holes through their armour all night.

I don't buy the match fitness bullshit either. He had no problem rushing an under done Beale back into the 15 for the final test against the Welsh. He will have no problem bringing back McCabe into the 15 despite not having played for nearly two months and he will have no problem bringing back O'Connor who hasn't played bugger all Rugby in the last few months. He has inlcuded Mitchell in the 22, who if he has more match fitness thnt Cooper, it wouldn't be by much. Lastly, how can he say it is due to match fitness, then pick 9 Waratahs in the 22, the Waratahs were the unfittest team in the competition, many of whom were only good for 60mins effort.

 

[scaraby]

That's the problem though isn't it.
I agree that it appears that our only chance to beat the AB's is to go "all in" and punt on Quade.
But Quade has not demonstrated the form since he returned that would justify "putting your house" on him.
A couple of big losses to the AB's and Robbie knows he will get shot.
He can handle a couple of honourable narrow losses, but not any blowouts.
Back self preservation every time.

The biggest issue I have with Aussie Rugby is the term honourable loss being trotted out when we blow a game. I'm sick of us accepting"we got close".."we played well but...." a loss is a loss..the Bledisloe score reads 3-0 or 2-1 etc not "we almost won one so can we borrow the cup maybe for a couple of days.".. you will never beat the ABs by thinking that getting close is good enough...stupid b...y selections once again..let me go back..Farr jones-Lynagh, Gregan -Larkham.... we need to get this settled down or we will never see the silver...accept at the Olympics...self preservation means winning not accepting defeat.

 

[tigerland12]

The Fainga'a Horne center combination is not the issue for me here. If i was coming up against SBW and Nonu I would want a strong center pairing aswell, but Horne will not be able to cope defensively against these two, Fainga'a will be. I really think Ashley-Cooper is our long term 13, yet he never gets played there.
As well as Barnes played, Cooper is a rare talent, he is the type of player that will win you big games on his own, Barnes can't do that, we cannot beat the All Blacks with Barnes at 10.

 

[Joe Blow]

He needs to try and win this home test.
Has he really pushed Quade outside of the reckoning because he went public about not subscribing to the RWC gameplan or is Cooper legitimately not ready for test rugby? He sure looked it in those last few games for the Reds.
I am no expert but the recognised ones are pretty much all saying we need to score a lot of points to win. That means we need Genia and Quade at 9-10.

It would have been wise to play both QC (Quade Cooper) and Barnes (in the 22 at least) to have the option of both combinations available.

 

[Inside Shoulder]

we cannot beat the All Blacks with Barnes at 10.

Richard Loe agrees.
Do I need to see a doctor: I am completely underwhelmed by the Bledisloe even though I have seats on half way? (and they cost me near enough to $800)

 

[No4918]

Maybe Deans has trotted out the least threatening Wallabies backline in years in the hope of getting the ABs complacement? Crafty bastard. Wobs by 10.

 

[I like to watch]

..
Has he really pushed Quade outside of the reckoning because he went public about not subscribing to the RWC gameplan or is Cooper legitimately not ready for test rugby? He sure looked it in those last few games for the Reds.

When did QC (Quade Cooper) do that?
Not selecting QC (Quade Cooper) in the 22 is a big statement from RD IMO.

 

[Braveheart81]

In the last 50 years we've only won one Bledisloe Cup test where NZ has scored 26 points or more.

Statistics would suggest that if we can't hold them to under 25 (and preferably a fair bit lower) we have no chance of winning.

 

[Quade Cheapshot]

Personally, I'd rather see Australia playing attacking rugby, chance their arm and try to take on the ABs than play a conservative, keep-it-close, at-least-we-won't-lose-by-too-much strategy.

He needs to try and win this home test.

In terms of the overall Rugby Championship, keeping the score down would seem sensible.

2012 is about avoiding the ignominy of the wooden spoon for the Wallabies. A reasonable expectation is to share the home and away with the Argies and target the match in Perth against the Bok to get up into third place.

A sniff at second place might come down to points differential with the Bok.