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Will the Reds make the Final?

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Groucho

Groucho

Greg Davis (50)
kiap said:
I disagree on the Hurricanes result and suspect that the Canes won't make the playoffs.

Brumbies will likely get third but the Reds still have a good chance to make it two Aussie teams in the six. The Bulls and Saders look like they should make it, although the Cru are now a bit wobbly.

The Reds, Sharks and Canes (currently all on 49 points) will likely battle it out for the last playoff spot. They all have only home games remaining, but need to win them and get bonus points if they can. Any team that loses won't deserve to make it anyway. The maximum results for each side are:

RED (HIG, WAR): 11 wins and 59 points.
SHA (BUL, CHE): 10 wins and 59 points.
HUR (BYE, CHI): 10 wins and 58 points.

The Reds have to win both remaining games and not slip behind on bonus points, but if they manage it they'll prevail courtesy of their extra win.
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Fingers crossed kiap, but it could have been easier if the Crusaders had won today.
 
kiap

kiap

Steve Williams (59)
Groucho said:
Fingers crossed kiap, but it could have been easier if the Crusaders had won today.
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Yeah but nah, mate. It may have ruled out the Canes a bit earlier but it doesn't really change the equation for the Reds. They still have to win both games. The Shorks are the main competition for the playoff spot.

The downside of the Canes win is that the Saders might drop below the Reds/Shorks/(ok,Canes) to claim the coveted 6th spot. o_O
 
Groucho

Groucho

Greg Davis (50)
kiap said:
Yeah but nah, mate. It may have ruled out the Canes a bit earlier but it doesn't really change the equation for the Reds. They still have to win both games. The Shorks are the main competition for the playoff spot.

The downside of the Canes win is that the Saders might drop below the Reds/Shorks/(ok,Canes) to claim the coveted 6th spot. o_O
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I bow to the arithmetic.
 
Dan54

Dan54

David Wilson (68)
I bow to your arithmetic to Kiap, I also agree can't see the Canes making it,and as a Canes man I not too upset, they have ended up a bloody sight better than I thought this season, but I suspect trying to beat Chiefs maybe a step to far.
 
liquor box

liquor box

Peter Sullivan (51)
Scotty said:
The crusaders loss was the one they will rue the most. They were the better team and should have put that game away.
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I think looking back at the season the biggest dissapointment will be the lack of bonus points, the Reds have probably blown 4-5 point seasily
 
flat_eric

flat_eric

Alfred Walker (16)
None of the results this week (besides their own win) have done the Reds any favours. The fight continues.
 
emuarse

emuarse

Chilla Wilson (44)
The Reds, Sharks and Canes (currently all on 49 points) will likely battle it out for the last playoff spot. They all have only home games remaining, but need to win them and get bonus points if they can. Any team that loses won't deserve to make it anyway. The maximum results for each side are:RED (HIG, WAR): 11 wins and 59 points.
SHA (BUL, CHE): 10 wins and 59 points.
HUR (BYE, CHI): 10 wins and 58 points.
Click to expand...

The Hurricanes are really up against it as they play the Chiefs in the last game. I therefore see them only getting 4 points from their bye & 1 possible point for losing by less than 8 to the Chiefs, so 50 points is there likely result (currently on 45).

The Sharks will probably lose to the Bulls next weekend, with possibly a single bonus point, and would be expected to beat the Cheetahs the following weekend, even getting another bonus point, so ending up with 55 points.

The Crusaders are not in the finals yet. They play the Chiefs away next week, and I doubt they will get a bonus point even the way the Chiefs are playing lately. They then play the Force at home so should pick up 5 points, finishing with 57 points.

So cutting to the chase, if the Reds win both their final games, without bonus points, they will have 57 points, but one more win than the Crusaders, so for & against won't count. They will also be ahead of the Sharks & Hurricanes.

I'm predicting that the Reds will be fifth at season end and will play either the Stormers in SA or Chiefs in NZ, unless the Waratahs do the Brumbies in at Sydney. And the Blues have found some end of year form and may also upset the Brumbies plans, So the dream of 3rd position (winner of Australian conference) is still quite possible for the Reds.
 
Scotty

Scotty

David Codey (61)
Canes will only get 4 points for the bye.

Basically the Nz teams take points off each other so you'd expect the sharks to be the main competitor for the reds.

It is feasible that the sharks could upset the bulls. (sharks loss is the other one that the reds would be disappointed about - all the more important now they are the main competition for the finals).
 
spectator

spectator

Bob Davidson (42)
Two bloody hard games for the Reds to finish the season. Getting the win will be hard enough, let alone the bonus points. I just hope the Tah's do the Reds a favour next week.
 
BDA

BDA

Jim Lenehan (48)
They need a bonus point win this weekend against the highlanders. I cant see them getting 4 tries against nsw, and i think theyll need 9 more competition points to make the final
 
Athilnaur

Athilnaur

Arch Winning (36)
I was very impressed by the Canes standard of play, down two key players and still able to play good rugby.

They definitely have a good shot at beating the chiefs, I think it will come down to whether Cruden plays or not.

Ath.
 
Athilnaur

Athilnaur

Arch Winning (36)
Re the Reds, after Friday, yes they could go all the way.

I'm just hoping they can wrestle their way to 5th as I want to see Brumbies and Reds both make the semis.

Ath.
 
P

Paradox

Guest
Scotty said:
The crusaders loss was the one they will rue the most. They were the better team and should have put that game away.
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They also nicked a game or two they could have lost. Tahs round 1 springs to mind and Brumbies in Canberra. Brumbies have been quite unfortunate in a few games as well. Chiefs in NZ, Bulls in SA, Reds in Canberra. We got a late win against the Cheetahs though.
 
kiap

kiap

Steve Williams (59)
Dan54 said:
I bow to your arithmetic to Kiap, I also agree can't see the Canes making it,and as a Canes man I not too upset, they have ended up a bloody sight better than I thought this season, but I suspect trying to beat Chiefs maybe a step to far.
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I've been on the Canes bandwagon this year, Dan. They are a bit like the Reds and Wallabies have been at times - wobbly on the set piece but with firepower out wide. It's a worry for them, but I still like the way they've attacked with the ball, and I've adopted them as my kiwi team.

Their chances for the playoffs are lower, I think, than the Shorks and Reds - but not zero. Like you say, the Canes have to beat the Chiefs. And with the Stormers close on the ladder, the Chiefs won't want to lose their #1 position.

If the Hurricanes do get a bonus point win over the Chiefs it still might not be enough, unless the Sharks and Reds miss their two chances each for a bonus point - or lose.

Be a great story, though, if they did make it.
 
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