Will the Reds make the Final?

[Slim 293]

Would normally agree with you Penguin (especially as it will favor the Reds) but the issue in Super XV is that not every team plays every other team or even the same teams as the teams in their conference.
Check out the teams the Brumbies have avoided playing this year.
No perfect method in this situation.

But if the Brumbies had've played the Crusaders and Stormers.......

They would've played the Crusaders in Canberra, and the Stormers in Cape Town.......

You might want to look up that history.......

 

[TOCC]

Interesting to note that the only team the Brumbies have beaten in the top 8 is the Hurricanes back in May, although they did come close to the Sharks, Bulls and Chiefs.

 

[tigerland12]

Interesting to note that the only team the Brumbies have beaten in the top 8 is the Hurricanes back in May, although they did come close to the Sharks, Bulls and Chiefs.

This is why we need the Reds in the finals, because the Brumbies have no chance of progressing further, while the Reds might. Don't get me wrong they are having a great season, but they still aren't anywhere near the likes of the Chiefs, Stormers, Crusaders or The bulls.

 

[Slim 293]

You're right.......

The Reds have been so much more convincing against the best teams this year, and we should just hand then top place.

 

[Paradox]

This is why we need the Reds in the finals, because the Brumbies have no chance of progressing further, while the Reds might.

that's a load of crap, what was the score when the Reds played against the Bulls or Force? Furthermore, the Brumbies knocked off the Highlanders when they were top dog in the comp. Probably should have drawn with the Chiefs away from home as well and would have beaten the Reds if a simple kick had gone over.

 

[Scoey]

that's a load of crap

It's a big stretch, but it's no load of crap. Yes the Bulls smashed us at the height of our injury dramas. I have no comeback for the Force game but. The Reds did knock off the Chiefs when they were the top of the comp and probably should've beaten the Saders away from home.

But when you start talking about ifs buts and maybes, yes your boys could've beaten the Reds if one more penalty went over. But your boys also could've lost to the Force and the Cheetahs if it were not for a kick.

The Brumbies are top of the conf for a reason, but through my Red tinted glasses I would say that given a 3rd spot at the end of the season proper, the Reds would be slightly more likely than the Brumbies to go all the way. And this was tigerlands point. Not to take a single thing away from the Brumbies.

Regardless, the Brubmies should easily finish 3rd spot and the Reds a likely 6th, so we may find out in a couple of weeks!

 

[Braveheart81]

The reality is that neither the Reds or the Brumbies are contenders this season.

 

[Slim 293]

Well, neither side is any match for the James Bevan trophy winners.......

 

[emuarse]

that's a load of crap, what was the score when the Reds played against the Bulls or Force? Furthermore, the Brumbies knocked off the Highlanders when they were top dog in the comp. Probably should have drawn with the Chiefs away from home as well and would have beaten the Reds if a simple kick had gone over.

Of course the Reds would have won by 7 more points if the obvious hand in the scrum had been seen by the assistant referee standing right in front on the 5 metre line

 

[Scotty]

The reality is that neither the Reds or the Brumbies are contenders this season.

Who are the contenders, in your view?

 

[Braveheart81]

I think the Chiefs and Stormers are going to be really hard to beat.

Historically it has been very hard to overcome home ground advantage in the finals.

 

[Slim 293]

Of course the Reds would have won by 7 more points if the obvious hand in the scrum had been seen by the assistant referee standing right in front on the 5 metre line

I didn't realise you get an automatic 7 points for that?

 

[Scotty]

I think the Chiefs and Stormers are going to be really hard to beat.

Historically it has been very hard to overcome home ground advantage in the finals.

So only two contenders for the title?

I think the only clear favourites are the stormers. I'd give every other team close to similar chances, but chances none the less.

 

[fatprop]

Assuming the table stays the same except for the Crusaders being replaced by the Reds ..........

1 Chiefs
2 Stormers
3 Brumbies
4 Bulls
5 Hurricanes
6 Reds/Crusaders

So
Quarter-finals
Team Three v Team Six - (QF1)
Brumbies vs Reds
Team Four v Team Five - (QF2)
Bulls Vs Canes

Semi-finals
Chiefs Vs lowest ranked qualifier
Stormers Vs Highest ranked qualifier

Final

I can see the Reds a slim chance vs the Brumbies in Canberra, but I can't see the Reds rolling the Chiefs @ Hamilton that next week let alone heading to SA the following week to beat the Bulls or Stormers.

 

[Tangawizi]

Equation for the Reds is really quite simple - they've just got to win their next 5 matches.

Already done 4 in a row so just got to keep that roll going.

 

[kiap]

I can see the Reds a slim chance vs the Brumbies in Canberra, but I can't see the Reds rolling the Chiefs @ Hamilton that next week let alone heading to SA the following week to beat the Bulls or Stormers.

The Reds would have a chance (less than even money, but still a fighting chance). I think the Chiefs would be the side they'd choose to play if they could. Hamilton is far preferable to Capetown or Pretoria for a semi-final.

I suspect the top 4 will remain where they are now, but 5 and 6 might be:

(A)
5 Crusaders
6 Reds/Sharks/Canes

or

(B)
5 Reds/Sharks
6 Crusaders

Outcome (A) is preferable to outcome (B) for the Reds.

 

[Ghibli]

This is why we need the Reds in the finals, because the Brumbies have no chance of progressing further, while the Reds might.

Brumbies have been my second team for ages behind the Reds, and I hate for them to lose to anyone but the Reds. But I will have to say F#*K them

Passion is a great thing.

 

[Scotty]

Reds only a slim chance vs the brumbies in Canberra? So you reckon brumbies would be overwhelming favourites, fp?

 

[fatprop]

Reds only a slim chance vs the brumbies in Canberra? So you reckon brumbies would be overwhelming favourites, fp?

overwhelming may be a bit high, but they will be at home, in front of a big partisan crowd and that is a distinct advantage

 

[Set piece magic]

I'm sure all 13000 of them will have the Reds shaking in their boots... Oh wait that's the weather