Why NZ can't win the World Cup

[Newter]

http://www.stuff.co.nz/sport/rugby/rugby-world-cup/4522991/Why-we-can-t-win-the-Rugby-World-Cup

A lack of leadership will mean the All Blacks won't win the Rugby World Cup this year, a leading academic says.

Dr David Harris spent four years writing a 292-page document for a business doctorate and concluded the men in black might not have what it takes to end 24 years of pain.

The Auckland University of Technology lecturer cites failures at the 1999, 2003 and 2007 tournaments to support his case.

Harris is aware his conclusion won't be warmly welcomed, writing in the preface to the document: "It is a story that ends with the troublesome conclusion the All Blacks might not be equipped to win the Rugby World Cup in 2011. It might also be a story nobody wants to listen to."

Talking to the Sunday Star-Times, Harris said: "The All Blacks are favourites with bookmakers, they clearly have the best athletes and the highest skill levels, and their win-loss ratio sets them apart from the competition.

"But reliance on the leadership of Richie McCaw and Daniel Carter leaves them vulnerable and in my opinion they are unlikely to win the three games in a row necessary to win the cup, although I hope I'm wrong."

Harris said McCaw's leadership had improved since the 20-18 loss to France in the 2007 cup, where decisions made by senior players, including the captain, were slated in a review commissioned by the Rugby Union

"The problem is if McCaw or Carter are taken out. I don't think the development of leaders to follow them is much better than 2007."

He said leadership, in business or sport, developed through "experiential learning" and that was being hindered in the modern era by immersing young talent in academies, where they constantly met other skilled players.

Harris said a club system was better, because they could learn to lead players of differing abilities.

He said the cup-winning and amateur All Blacks of 1987 came from club rugby. "The idea that you can teach leadership in an academy is flawed."

Harris stopped short of labelling players and administrators arrogant but said some had put up walls around themselves after the failure to win a cup since 1987. "When the public demands the winning of the cup, and you fail to deliver, the natural reaction is to get defensive."

But Fairfax Media head of sport Trevor McKewen was less convinced.

"That's why academics don't coach rugby teams and rugby coaches don't lecture at universities."

 

[RugbyReg]

A lack of leadership will mean the All Blacks won't win the Rugby World Cup this year, a leading academic says.

Dr David Harris spent four years writing a 292-page document for a business doctorate and concluded the men in black might not have what it takes to end 24 years of pain.

The Auckland University of Technology lecturer cites failures at the 1999, 2003 and 2007 tournaments to support his case.

Harris is aware his conclusion won't be warmly welcomed, writing in the preface to the document: "It is a story that ends with the troublesome conclusion the All Blacks might not be equipped to win the Rugby World Cup in 2011. It might also be a story nobody wants to listen to."

Talking to the Sunday Star-Times, Harris said: "The All Blacks are favourites with bookmakers, they clearly have the best athletes and the highest skill levels, and their win-loss ratio sets them apart from the competition.

"But reliance on the leadership of Richie McCaw and Daniel Carter leaves them vulnerable and in my opinion they are unlikely to win the three games in a row necessary to win the cup, although I hope I'm wrong."

Harris said McCaw's leadership had improved since the 20-18 loss to France in the 2007 cup, where decisions made by senior players, including the captain, were slated in a review commissioned by the Rugby Union

"The problem is if McCaw or Carter are taken out. I don't think the development of leaders to follow them is much better than 2007."

He said leadership, in business or sport, developed through "experiential learning" and that was being hindered in the modern era by immersing young talent in academies, where they constantly met other skilled players.

Harris said a club system was better, because they could learn to lead players of differing abilities.

He said the cup-winning and amateur All Blacks of 1987 came from club rugby. "The idea that you can teach leadership in an academy is flawed."

Harris stopped short of labelling players and administrators arrogant but said some had put up walls around themselves after the failure to win a cup since 1987. "When the public demands the winning of the cup, and you fail to deliver, the natural reaction is to get defensive."

But Fairfax Media head of sport Trevor McKewen was less convinced.

"That's why academics don't coach rugby teams and rugby coaches don't lecture at universities."

 

[Newter]

Brad Thorn could captain the side tomorrow. Andrew Hore. Conrad Smith, too, at a pinch.

Bit of a bullshit article, but does make a good point about good players growing into leaders when their team mates are fairly weak in ability. The best examples of this in Aus rugby would be Nathan Sharpe and David Pocock - they've both grown into better leaders at the Force, because it doesn't have a great roster.

 

[RugbyReg]

yeah, I think the ABs would respond well too Mils Muliana or Mealamu as well.

 

[MrTimms]

they would respond well to Mils or kev, but I think the gist is that they would not have the decision making skills required.

Look at Rocky, assuming the group responded well to him which they seem to have, it has taken him some time to grow into the role. Doing that suddenly in the knock-out stages of the cup would not cut it.

But yeah, a big if. McCaw is not the most fragile of players.

 

[dobduff11]

From their current lineup of, bold players could be potential Captains. I think they are better placed than previous World Cups.

1. Woodcock
2. Mealamu
3. Franks
4. Thorn
5. Donnelly/Whitelock
6. Kaino
7. McCaw (C)
8. Read
9. Cowan/Weepu
10. Carter
11. Rokococko
12. Nonu
13. Smith
14. Jane
15. Muliaina

In 2007 they had, McCaw, Rodney, Carter, Mauger and i think thats it maybe Hayman at a stretch.

In 2003 they had Umaga (injured), Thorne (ish), Marshall, and thats about it. This team definitely suffered from a lack of leadership.

In 99 i think it was more selection that was the concern, Cullen should have played 15, Goldie to 14 and Tana to 13.

 

[Gagger]

If the article's point is that leadership is the biggest weakness New Zealand has, I agree with it.

I haven't seen anything to make me think any of the above in bold could step into international captaincy, outside of McCaw obviously. Maybe Read

 

[The_Brown_Hornet]

Read would be my choice of stand in captain. I've been very impressed by him in the last 12 months and he's developed into an outstanding player. There is something about that Canterbury system that continues to produce fine players and fine leaders.

With that said, history has shown that without McCaw the AB's are vulnerable. They wanna hope he doesn't get injured.

 

[Newter]

From their current lineup of, bold players could be potential Captains. I think they are better placed than previous World Cups.

1. Woodcock
2. Mealamu
3. Franks
4. Thorn
5. Donnelly/Whitelock
6. Kaino
7. McCaw (C)
8. Read
9. Cowan/Weepu
10. Carter
11. Rokococko
12. Nonu
13. Smith
14. Jane
15. Muliaina

In 2007 they had, McCaw, Rodney, Carter, Mauger and i think thats it maybe Hayman at a stretch.

In 2003 they had Umaga (injured), Thorne (ish), Marshall, and thats about it. This team definitely suffered from a lack of leadership.

In 99 i think it was more selection that was the concern, Cullen should have played 15, Goldie to 14 and Tana to 13.

It's interesting looking at the All Blacks in previous world cups. You mention Aaron Mauger in 2007, but he didn't even make the team for that quarter-final against France. They were chock full of forward leaders and rudderless in the backs. When Carter went down, they lost their brains.

Also interesting is the lack of leaders in their 2003 side, especially compared to the Wallabies then. I mean, we had a lot of captains and vice captains in that team (as limited as it was). Apart from Gregan, there was David Giffin, Bill Young, Brendan Cannon, George Smith and Phil Waugh. Then Stephen Larkham, Elton Flatley and Stirling Mortlock. No wonder we creamed them in the clutch game.

The All Blacks now have a side with a leadership group as strong as it was in 07, but more balanced among forwards and backs. Scary thought.

 

[WB3]

^ So on that basis the choke should be spectacular

 

[matty_k]

And funny too.

 

[Baldric]

And funny too.

Understatement. It would be bloody hysterical.

 

[Rob42]

Can I enrol for a doctorate at that university? I'd love to bang out a 292 page document on why the ABs might lose, or any other team for that matter. In fact, I could have fired off about 300 pages on the problems in the Australian cricket team before I went to sleep the other night. I assume a "business doctorate" is not a real PhD?

 

[Newter]

One genuine reason the All Blacks might find it hard to win the Cup on home soil - they won't get any down time between matches. No anonymity for the country's most recognisable sportsmen, I'd think.

http://www.rugbyworldcup.com/home/news/newsid=2041185.html#victor+matfield+how+rugby+world+cup

With the seventh edition of Rugby World Cup only nine months away, we find out from South Africa's veteran second row Victor Matfield just what it takes to lift the Webb Ellis Cup.

Victory in a Rugby World Cup Final is the pinnacle of any player’s career and looking back at South Africa’s journey to lifting the trophy in 2007, I would say it all really began in 2004 when Jake White was appointed coach and he brought together the players who formed the nucleus of the squad that was ultimately successful in France.
We had a terrible World Cup in 2003 but when Jake came in, we talked about the style of play we wanted to adopt and how we could move forward. It was a decision taken between the players and the coaching staff and that democratic process ensured everyone was on board. Jake made it clear he believed in us as a group of players and we respected his trust. It meant that by the time the World Cup arrived, we were an experienced, tight-knit group.
Of course, it wasn’t all plain sailing. We struggled in 2006 in particular, losing five Tests on the bounce at one stage, but with hindsight it was a blessing. You often find out more about yourself as a team in adversity than you do when things are going well and that poor run of results collectively forced us to sit down and identify what we were doing wrong.
We came to the conclusion it was a case of minor alterations rather than major surgery. We realised more accuracy and patience were required and as the World Cup got closer we put the lessons into practice.
Even though a World Cup is a long tournament, you do all the hard work before the competition begins or a ball is kicked. We were in training camps during 2006 doing plenty of conditioning work simply because there was no time in 2007. For South African players, it was Super Rugby, then the Tri Nations and then the World Cup was upon us, so by the time we touched down in France, all the serious physical conditioning was behind us and training sessions were all about fine tuning and refining our structures.

Freedom key to success
Reaching the final meant we were away from home for seven weeks but boredom and homesickness were not a factor. We had our families with us for long periods during the tournament and we had a lot of freedom in terms of going out and sightseeing in Paris. I think that was hugely important because it kept spirits high in the squad.
It is always important to be able to switch off from rugby, to get away from it all, but it’s even more important in the pressurised environment of a World Cup and in that respect France were the perfect hosts. The country has a long, proud rugby tradition but we were still able to walk the streets with our families or rent a car for the day and not get mobbed by people asking for autographs.
Behind the scenes, the role of the coach and the captain were crucial. Jake was under huge pressure going into the tournament and he did get stressed at times but he kept a lid on it. He also got a lot of support from the rest of the coaching team and the likes of Eddie Jones, who had been there and done that before in 2003, and I think that was another big factor in our success.
As was John Smit. Supporters only see the captain on the pitch for the 80 minutes but I’d have to say what happens on the pitch is only 10 percent of the job a good captain does, especially when a group of players are away together at a tournament for a long period.
The captain sets the tone for everything, from the team meetings to training sessions. He’s ultimately responsible for the atmosphere in the camp and John was superb in France. He struck the perfect balance between keeping everyone focused and making sure we stayed relaxed. Of course, he’s world class out on the pitch but what he contributed off it in 2007 was absolutely critical.
There were more than one or two rows and disagreements within the squad in 2007 though. Some might see that as a sign of disunity or low morale, but I thought it was a positive because it’s always better to get something off your chest and move on rather than let it fester and ultimately affect team spirit.
It’s inevitable when you’ve got 30 players and a coaching staff of 20 together for seven weeks that tempers will flare when there’s a clash of heads in training or if a big tackle comes in unexpectedly. People won’t always see eye to eye but it doesn’t need to be a problem. Players had their say when they weren’t happy and we moved on as a squad.

Experience and togetherness
Looking back at the final in Paris, it was as close and tough as we expected and I think what got us through against England was our experience and sense of togetherness. We had been building up to that game for three years, so all the trials and tribulations we experienced on the way ultimately pulled us through.
We had hammered England in the group stages but there was definitely no sense of complacency ahead of the final. England were poor in the first game but when they beat Australia in the quarter finals and then France in the semi final, we were under no illusions that they had turned things around. English teams are always physically challenging and that side was no different but we stayed patient, stuck to our game plan and got over the line.
New Zealand host the 2011 World Cup and we know it will be incredibly difficult to defend our title. No country has yet won back to back World Cups, so we could make history but, as champions, we are also there to be shot at.
I’ve not doubt New Zealand will do a fantastic job of staging the tournament but I think it will be a different dynamic. It’s a smaller country than France and rugby is the number one sport, so it will be harder to escape during the competition. As I said, we were able to wander the streets of Paris in relative anonymity in 2007 but I can’t see that being the case in New Zealand because people are absolutely crazy about their rugby over there.
I think we will have to make a conscious effort to arrange more activities and get out of the cities so the squad can unwind, forget about rugby for a day or two and refresh minds and bodies.

No favourites for World Cup
Our form going into the tournament has not been great and our performances in the 2010 Tri Nations were disappointing but I’m still confident we are capable of lifting the trophy. Our recent results have not been part of the grand plan but the way we struggled in 2010 reminds me of the team’s problems in 2006 and we showed then that it is possible to turn the ship around.
We have to be brutally honest about what has gone wrong and not be afraid to change things. It worked for us four years ago and I don’t believe there is currently any shortage of talent in South African rugby.

The fact the Bulls and the Sharks contested an all-South Africa final in Super Rugby in 2100 tells its own story and there are young players on the domestic scene who are keeping the older, more experienced players on their toes.
We know we have no divine right to lift the World Cup again but we definitely won’t come up short in terms of preparation or commitment. We will probably be one of the most experienced squads in New Zealand and when it comes down to tournament rugby, that’s a huge asset.

At this stage, I really don’t think there is a favourite for the trophy. Previous tournaments have proved that form and reputation can often count for little and I’m sure it will be the same in New Zealand.

 

[Reddy!]

Why NZ cannot win the World Cup? Well that is an easy one to answer: because they are New Zealanders and history suggests they won't.

 

[Scorz]

Read will be the next Captain. It is written. Cantab, Loose forward who can do hard yakka and run with the backs, and has a good rugby brain. It's pretty clear though that most punters and journos are keeping in line with the "NZ won't win" mantra because it makes a better story than going down the same track as Spain winning the FIFA WC. It takes some luck as well as the experience to know how to use that luck with the players available.

 

[DPK]

How is Read's ref management? He's probably picked up what to do, playing with one of the best (McCaw) but it is a skill that is very difficult to hone for some players. Being polite off field doesn't always equate to being a good ref manager; George Smith's a great bloke off field but he clashed with some of the ref's while he was Wallaby captain.

 

[Groucho]

But Fairfax Media head of sport Trevor McKewen was less convinced.

"That's why academics don't coach rugby teams and rugby coaches don't lecture at universities."

And journalists aren't allowed within a mile of either.

 

[disco]

If NZ make the final they'll win, Their biggest hurdle will come from the Springboks.

A lot of the Boks are passed their peak but when you look back at most old champions they usually have one more big game in them before they move on & if the Boks can get to the semis without having a real fight on the way I think they can lift for the semi.

This world cup has been set up for a Kiwi victory with McCaw as the untouchable captain Paddy O'Brien as the chief of refs & the IRB willing to bend the laws at any given time the Kiwis feel they've been hard done by (Re: Keven "the christian saint" Mealamu).

 

[da_grubster]

How is Read's ref management? He's probably picked up what to do, playing with one of the best (McCaw) but it is a skill that is very difficult to hone for some players. Being polite off field doesn't always equate to being a good ref manager; George Smith's a great bloke off field but he clashed with some of the ref's while he was Wallaby captain.

Don't know but it cant be any worse than Rocky's!