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Which Team Will Win The S15 and Why?

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Ali's Choice

Jimmy Flynn (14)
There are only four teams which I feel can realistically win the Super Rugby title this year. And unsurprisingly they make up the current top four. They are the Blues, Reds, Stormers and Crusaders. Despite some good performances from teams outside the current top four, I think one of these teams is almost guaranteed to win the title.

But which team do you think will win the title, and why?

I think the Crusaders will win. For the sake of disclosure I am a Crusaders fan. But that dosen't mean I always feel we will win the title. Over the past two seasons it has been pretty obvious that we were not as good as the Bulls and that we were not going to beat the Bulls in Pretoria to win the title. However, despite the fact that the Crusaders currently lie fourth on the table, I strongly believe they will win this tournament. For these reasons.

Firstly, I think they have the best squad. Injuries are starting to take their toll, and losing Dagg and Maitland for potentially the rest of the home and away season will be a big loss as our attack will lose much of its potency and our backlines will lose much of its speed. But overall, even accounting for injuries, I think the Crusaders have the most balanced squad, followed closely the Blues. They have potent backs, smart halves and a strong, workaholic pack which does well in the set piece. They also have the right mix of youth and experience, of enthusiasm and class. They’ve got plenty of players who have won titles to be able to draw on their experience come finals time, but enough players who haven’t to mean that as a squad the hunger is still there for success. We’ve got enough world class players such as Dan Carter, Richie McCaw, Kieran Read, Owen Franks and Brad Thorn to complement our 2nd tier and rookie players.

Secondly, due to the earthquake forcing the Crusaders out of AMI Stadium for the entire season, they’re probably the best travelling team in the comp. Out of necessity they’ve had to learn to play every week away from the comfort and familiarity of their home stadium. And this should bode well for them should they fail to overhaul the Blues and force their way into the top 3. Given their brave performance against the Stormers in Cape Town Sunday morning, I don’t think the Crusaders will fear playing a final anywhere. Although in saying that, the high veldt has been unkind to them in recent seasons.

Lastly and most importantly I think there is now a title-winning level of self-belief in this squad. Having seen the Crusaders win seven Super titles, I feel that there is the self belief required to win such a tough comp as the S15. The Bulls have shown this self belief in recent years. I haven’t seen this self belief in a Crusaders team since their last title in 2008, and it was especially evident during their great run in the late 1990s and early 00s. But it was evident once again against the Stormers on Saturday night. They simply weren’t going to let the Stormers win, despite the fact that they were playing in Cape Town, in front of 50,000 spectators, with no reserves left and forwards playing in the backline.
 

Joe Mac

Arch Winning (36)
I hate to say it but the Saders are looking nigh on impossible to beat with a full-squad. They really rise to the occasion as seen over the weekend.
 

Godfrey

Phil Hardcastle (33)
I pretty much agree with this, though I would love for the Reds to win. The only problem is that despite winning a lot of games they never seem to really hit the top gear and leave a couple of tries on the park. If they step up and truly click I think they could challenge anyone on the day. I think it will be either the Crusaders, Reds or Blues - with the rank of the later two being decided this weekend.
 

tigerland12

John Thornett (49)
If the Crusaders can get a lot of their injured stars back they will win it. Queensland has the potential, but once again have to make sure their backs aren't completely depleted by injuries. Auckland have looked rusty in their last few matches, but still are a quality side. And the Stormers are strong all over the park and will come close if they get a home semi-final.
I can't chose right now, i have no doubt this will be the top 4 at the end of the regular season though. If i was to tip now I'd say Crusaders vs Reds/Stormers final
 

biggsy

Chilla Wilson (44)
I truly Believe the Reds will win, but I say that every year. And I don't think the Reds have fully switched on yet, saving the best till last for home G.F
 

barbarian

Phil Kearns (64)
Staff member
I can't see the Blues winning. They have played pretty poorly the last few weeks, and both the Canes and the Clan should have put them away. They will miss Toeava.
 

rugbysmartarse

Alan Cameron (40)
good post AC. exteding your thoughts, who are the other 2 probable finalists, and how will the finals be made up? I think the highlanders are shot without thommo for the next month, and will fall away. This probably leaves the shorks and tahs (not that the tahs deserve to be there on current form). So it will likely be
opt 1 opt 2
1: saders 1: saders
2: stormers 2: reds
3: reds 3: stormers
4: blues 4: blues
5: shorks 5: shorks
6: tahs 6: tahs

so by my understanding the first round of semis will be either reds/tahs and blues/shorks, or stormers/tahs and blues/shorks

Now the reds/tahs would be great to see (decider!) and while I think the tahs could potentially choke the reds out of the game, the reds will probably win that encounter. Sharks travel poorly, and I am tipping the blues to get up over them. If the tahs go to Capetown then they have no hope anyway. So IMO, this would result in major semis of
Saders/reds or Saders/stormers and stormers/blues or reds/blues

The reds beat the stormers in Capetown this year. It was a great display of game plan execution, but the stormers have more experience playing finals rugby (especially in the CC) so I am not sure they would let themselves be beaten twice at home knowing better now what the reds have to throw at them. I would pick a stormers win (note that if the tahs did upset the reds, they would still have to go to the cape to beat the stormers, and I still cant see it happening, even with the belief of a semi upset under their belts)
If the stormers have to fly to South Island to play the saders, I do not think they could get up over the saders - its a long flight if nothing else, and their finals experiece will count for less against the overall super rugby champs.
in the other game, the blues also travel poorly, so I would tip the stormers over them if they had to fly to SA, and I cannot tip the possible reds/blues clash until I see this weekends game (head going with Blues).
so the probable final is Saders v stormers/reds/blues (in that order of likelyhood). it's becoming clear that every way I cut it, the one constrant is the Crusaders

so as I look at it, IMO the final is in NZ (where would they play it? surely not hamilton?)
The crusaders, at home, after their home has been devestated by earthquake, in good form? I'd have to say they are the likely champs.

Sorry for the long post, but I thought I should put down more than Crusaders because of SBW
 

Blue

Andrew Slack (58)
History tells us that rarely does an away team win a semi and sure as hell not against the Crusaders.

If they can travel to Cape Town, lose an arm before the game, a leg and an eye during the game, and still beat a bloody good team you can't look past them.
 

cyclopath

George Smith (75)
Staff member
Crusaders.
They are a true team, rather than a collection of stars, who clearly know how to play for each other as evidenced by their superb performance on the weekend.
Their defence is rock-solid, and winning teams in this comp usually have close to, if not the best defence. Their attack is always dangerous, and there is more to them than counter-attack.
Their depth is scary.
I think the Reds could be a real chance too, but they cannot afford to lose a few big names as that would expose them - especially Genia and Cooper. They are the most likely team to unlock a good defence.
 

MajorlyRagerly

Trevor Allan (34)
Sorry for the long post, but I thought I should put down more than Crusaders because of SBW

I'd have accepted this. He just blows my mind how many opportunities he can make up.

The Genia/Cooper axis is just as good though I suppose.

People seem to be looking past the Stormers. I know they just lost, but my pick is Saders/Stormers final & we all know anything can happen in a final.

Agree with people's views about the Blues & I'd have the reds as my third most likely team. But I do think the Saders/Stormers are the 2 best teams in the comp and thus should be the final.
 

Bullrush

Geoff Shaw (53)
The thing about the Blues is that they have the potential to run any team off the field on the night. They can play the best open-field, counter-attacking, free-flowing, mind-boggling rugby you've ever seen but they are starting to also become a team that can grind out a win as per the last two weeks.

On the other hand, they can also have your TV needing to be replaced because of the new remote-shaped hole that happened during one of their brain explosions.
 
G

Geeves

Guest
Lets look at the top 6 and their run in (1 to 6)

The final 6 are almost set but a couple of losses in a row now could turn a golden confirmed semi-final spot into a shit fight to make the finals cut. The Blues are 3 points clear of the Crusaders who are 9 clear of the Highlanders. The Stormers are four points clear of the Sharks (note if you give the Sharks their Bye the Stormers get the SA comp on points) who are 8 clear of the most disappointing side this year, the Bulls. The Reds look safe with 9 points clear of the Tahs who are an embarrassing 14 points clear of the Brumbies (the Aussie comp looks the weakest).

Blues : Reds (A), Stormers (H), BYE, Chiefs (H), Crusaders (A), Highlanders (H)
The Blues play 3 sides in the top 6 (2 away, 1 at home), and the Highlanders in 7th. While the Chiefs always front up well against the Blues. It will not be an easy run in. Expected points 12 (Bye+ Chiefs + Highlanders), Min 8-10, Max 15-22 (get either Stormers or Reds). They will not win all their remaining games (they will lose at least one against the top 3). Likely finish 1 (host semi) or 4.

Reds: Blues (H), Bye, Crusaders (H), Brumbies (H), Force (A), Chiefs (A)
Arguably a hell of a lot easier for the Reds as the big games are at home (Blues and Crusaders). But these are not easy games even the local derbies are not guaranteed while the finish in NZ will be cold. Expected 16 – 18 (Bye + Brumbies + Force + Chiefs), Min 12, Max 20-22 (they will not win all games). Overall finish 1 (host semi), could win conference but could be 3rd overall. If things go pear shaped 5th or 6th. But NSW would have to play a lot better than they have of late to kicking them down that far.

Stormers: Chiefs (A), Blues (A), Brumbies (A), Rebels (A), Bulls (H), Cheetahs (A)
The Stormers have already had their second Bye and are about to embark on touring. They are likely to hit the wall and struggle in the opening 2 games on tour. While easier in Aus the Bulls are going to be tough to beat. Expected points 12 -16 (Brumbies + Rebels+ Cheetahs maybe Chiefs), min 8-10 (just don’t travel well), max 16-20 (pick up Chiefs + Bulls). I reckon they will finish in the top 6 but will not have a home final and travel will get them at the end.

Crusaders: Cheetahs (A), Chiefs (H), Reds (A), Bye, Blues (H), Hurricanes (A)
Injuries are a struggle but their ability to polish any turd of a player into a great player cannot be underestimated. Expected 16-20, Min 15, Max 26-29. At this stage I just cannot underestimate this side. Arrgh ####ing hell. The best/worst thing is that the Crusaders don’t get to play the Lions and Rebels this year (that would have been a gift 10). Finish on top of the table by points difference or second in the NZ comp and scare the hell out of everyone during the finals

Sharks: Bye, Bulls (H), Waratahs (H), Cheetahs (A), Lions (A), Bulls (A)
Sharks are now only in SA. The Bulls are going to be their major hurdle and depending on how they contain them they could steal the top SA conference spot. They should get at least 18 more points. I think like the Stormers they face the real prospect of being 3rd overall or traveling away.

Tahs: Bye, Lions (H), Sharks (A), Bulls (A), Highlanders (H), Brumbies (H),
Tahs will have to play exceptionally well from now to make the finals. The game against the Highlanders could be one loss to many. As I think they will loose to Sharks and Bulls and the 13 points (Bye, Lions and Brumbies) might not be enough. A win against the Highlanders will be vital.

Others Highlanders and Bulls could sneak it in but they will have to cover injuries and play exceptionally well to get there. No one else is really in the race.

Crusaders will be the side to beat if they can overcome injuries.
 
D

daz

Guest
I truly Believe the Reds will win, but I say that every year.

Really? Every year? Even die hard Reds fans would not have believed that we were genuine title contenders up until this year.

And even now, our recent turbulent history means we are just waiting for something very, very bad to happen....

Not that we (or maybe just me) are "glass is half empty" kind of people, but I need to see Jimmy hold the trophy up before I would dare to believe the dream was actually reality!
 

Ruggo

Mark Ella (57)
To many games ahead that could be deal breakers for the top four sides and cause a large momentum shift. The Blues vs Reds is the first one. Others include Reds vs Crusaders and Blues vs Crusaders.

All the teams have a difficult run home in different ways, that the ladder does not take into account. For the Stormers it's the road trip and for the Reds, Crusaders and Blues it is that they all have to play each other. I believe the Kiwi derbies are somewhat unpredictable when they throw everything including the kitchen sink at each other. Those two local derbies for the Reds could easy be banana skin games.

Without question the Crusaders look the bench mark at current but I think you have a better chance at finding the meaning of life than you do at working out hho will win the Super 15.
 

Ali's Choice

Jimmy Flynn (14)
good post AC. exteding your thoughts, who are the other 2 probable finalists, and how will the finals be made up? I think the highlanders are shot without thommo for the next month, and will fall away. This probably leaves the shorks and tahs (not that the tahs deserve to be there on current form).

Hypothetically speaking of course, I agree with you that the Sharks and Waratahs will probably finish 5th and 6th in that order. I also think that the Top 4 will stay the same. I think all the teams currently in the Top 4 will lose at least one more game, probably two. I think the Blues will hang on to top spot in the NZ Conference, leaving the Crusaders to stay on 4th spot despite the fact that I think they will finish with more points than one or both of the Reds and Stormers.

So, if the top 6 stays how it is now, then this will be what will happens in the three week finals series.

Top 6

1. Blues
2. Reds
3. Stormers
4. Crusaders
5. Sharks
6. Waratahs

Week One

Blues and Stormers rest

Game One:Stormers vs Waratahs In Cape Town
Game Two: Crusaders vs Sharks in New Zealand (wherever the Crusaders elect to play)

Week Two

Game Three: Blues vs Lowest ranked winner in Games One and Two (likely the Crusaders) in Auckland
Game Four: Reds vs Highest ranked winner in Games One and Two (likely to be the Stormers) in Brisbane.

Week Three

Final: Winner of Game 3 vs Winner Game 4
 

biggsy

Chilla Wilson (44)
Really? Every year? Even die hard Reds fans would not have believed that we were genuine title contenders up until this year.

And even now, our recent turbulent history means we are just waiting for something very, very bad to happen....

Not that we (or maybe just me) are "glass is half empty" kind of people, but I need to see Jimmy hold the trophy up before I would dare to believe the dream was actually reality!

yep every year i say that,???
 

The_Brown_Hornet

John Eales (66)
Some good analysis fellas. For my money, I think if the Crusaders can field 15 fit blokes, they'll win the comp. They have overcome all sorts of adversity this season and have just kept winning. Frankly I am marvelling at their ability to do that. Finals footy is mainly won in the pack and they'll have most of their best forwards available come finals time.

The Stormers would have to be a little concerned about dropping two games at Newlands against likely finals rivals. They haven't toured yet and will want to step up a level to get a home semi. They'll make the finals I think, but I still think they have a bit to prove.

The Blues have been good and frequently brilliant this season. No Ice is a blow for them, but not a season killer. They have a tough run home though, facing several rivals on the way. If they make it, they will have firstly done well to make the finals to begin with and secondly be a real threat.

The Tahs need to step up and play a lot better and win a couple of big away games to not only book the points, but also maybe put away a couple of their rivals. I don't know that they are capable of it this year. Too many injuries and a lack of scoring ability hamper them. They are on a knife edge right now.

The Highlanders might have just about done their dash by now, which is a shame, because they have been great value this season. Is Thomson gone? If so, I think that hurts them considerably.

The Sharks could well make it and have one of the easier runs home. I'd be backing them to do it with the draw they have. They won't win the comp though, as the opposition teams I think have a little too much fire power for them. Two big games against the Bulls though. Win those and they would be almost home I reckon.
 

PaarlBok

Rod McCall (65)
Dont count the Brutes out just yet. They have this unique way of snick in the business end and have the cattle to win the important ones. They did it for many a year in the CC, they did it in S14 rugby in their first win and are about to do this in the Vodacom Cup. Just have the feel they will start their run just about from now.
 
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