Where to for Super Rugby?

[Omar Comin']

SANZAAR seems intent on reducing the competition to 15 teams because they have haemorrhaged viewers in all their markets. They seem intent on keeping the Sunwolves.

I really don't see the ARU backtracking on the decision to cut a team unless something external changes and they no longer need to cut a team (which seems pretty unlikely at this point).

SANZAAR can't do anything without the ARU going along with it so if new information changes the ARU's preference then SANZAAR would have to find a new solution, right?

Is the Force raising $8 million or more (presuming they do) and Cox not willing to sell, and both franchises having strong legal cases to remain beyond this year then why can't the ARU change its mind?

One other thing - I know the ARU have made this decision on the basis that they can cut a team and keep the same amount of broadcast money in the current deal, but do they really think they'll be able to keep the same % in the next deal given they're providing less content? Seems like a pretty temporary situation.

 

[amirite]

SANZAAR can't do anything without the ARU going along with it so if new information changes the ARU's preference then SANZAAR would have to find a new solution, right?

Is the Force raising $8 million or more (presuming they do) and Cox not willing to sell, and both franchises having strong legal cases to remain beyond this year then why can't the ARU change its mind?

One other thing - I know the ARU have made this decision on the basis that they can cut a team and keep the same amount of broadcast money in the current deal, but do they really think they'll be able to keep the same % in the next deal given they're providing less content? Seems like a pretty temporary situation.

It would be the darkest timeline for the ARU to destroy all it's good will by announcing they'd scrap a team due to solvency issues, then not scrapping a team. So many bridges burnt for no outcome.

Still, you're right the upside would be keeping the teams, with all of them being a touch more fiscally responsible.

 

[Braveheart81]

SANZAAR can't do anything without the ARU going along with it so if new information changes the ARU's preference then SANZAAR would have to find a new solution, right?

Is the Force raising $8 million or more (presuming they do) and Cox not willing to sell, and both franchises having strong legal cases to remain beyond this year then why can't the ARU change its mind?

One other thing - I know the ARU have made this decision on the basis that they can cut a team and keep the same amount of broadcast money in the current deal, but do they really think they'll be able to keep the same % in the next deal given they're providing less content? Seems like a pretty temporary situation.

You can think all those things. I just don't think things are likely to change from the ARU's perspective and they will proceed with cutting a team.

 

[Leo86]

Ah, yes then UK fan can buy the memberships, gate tickets and merchandise and but the local products from the locally based sponsors.

Just a catch up point for you. The reason all the Super Rugby franchises and ARU are bemoaning the current format is the lack of home derbies as that gate takings are critical financially.

Actually Force V any kiwi sides is huge over here. There is a good rivalry super rugby gives in between bledisoe games. Huge kiwi numbers here who are extremely loyal to their (original) home teams. Makes a bloody good atmosphere

 

[daz]

Hey all,

I fully get that emotions are running high, especially for those of us who face the very real possibility of losing our team.

BUT, as always, GAGR is a place to discuss our different points of view without getting personal. Our standards are our standards.

I know it is harder than usual to maintain those standards, but can I suggest that endlessly beating your POV just because you don't think the other person reading your posts gets it, is not the way to keep honest discourse flowing.

And unless you are a part of the Force/Rebels/ARU management teams voting on the final decision, what we say here has pretty much bugger all chance of changing the course of destiny.

Ranting is good. Venting is good. Opinions are good - made once.

Continued ranting, venting and being bloody minded in your opinions is not good.

It's a shitty deal for all, especially the WF and Rebs fans, so let's be aware that fuses are shorter than people posting in a "Quade Cooper Wallaby 10?" thread.

Some latitude will be allowed, but GAGR is GAGR for a reason.

Thanks folks.

 

[TOCC]

You can think all those things. I just don't think things are likely to change from the ARU's perspective and they will proceed with cutting a team.

Omar is pointing out the legal implications, what if they legally are unable to drop a team? and I certainly don't think the ARU conducted their due diligence in this area considering they set a 72hr deadline and retreated on that deadline 24hrs later when RugbyWA threatens legal action.

Does the ARU have a plan b?

 

[Braveheart81]

Omar is pointing out the legal implications, what if they legally are unable to drop a team? and I certainly don't think the ARU conducted their due diligence in this area considering they set a 72hr deadline and retreated on that deadline 24hrs later when RugbyWA threatens legal action.

Does the ARU have a plan b?

I don't think that will be the case. The Force have no permanent rights to a Super Rugby licence with SANZAAR. They are reliant on the ARU.

It may be that there is a cost for the ARU to break from the Alliance Agreement but contracts are broken all the time.

Ultimately I think the ARU will cut a team and it will end up being whichever causes the least financial pain.

 

[NTT]

Your Ctrl, C, and V keys must be pretty worn out.

I mostly find just find it funny that you artfully accuse me of "drawing it out" and "posting too much" whilst posting another reply - at least I have self awareness.

So i wasn't far off when i stated that your parameters to winning an argument is directly related to number of posts.
Again, my question is, can you move past your adorable obsession with my character to post anything pertaining to the future financial sustainability of Australian rugby that is more than just X franchise must perish because i heard someone say so?
3 questions that still have not been answered on this topic are as follows :
Private ownership is seen as guarantee for survival. How is this so when the franchise in this ownership model is still losing money after already losing $20 million?
How does private ownership of the Force through share syndication also guarantee that the same conditions to survival do not apply to the Force?

How does the Brumbies past record of success make them immune to future financial hardship?

Neither question has ever been addressed. All we get are snyde remarks and character assassination.

 

[Omar Comin']

It would be the darkest timeline for the ARU to destroy all it's good will by announcing they'd scrap a team due to solvency issues, then not scrapping a team. So many bridges burnt for no outcome.

Still, you're right the upside would be keeping the teams, with all of them being a touch more fiscally responsible.

Well it could be like when Coca Cola changed their formula due to blind taste test research, only to piss off their loyal customers so much they were getting thousands of complaints every day and their sales tanked. So they backflipped, reintroduced their 'classic' coke and boosted sales above what they were previously. The President of Coca Cola at the time said there had simply been no way to gauge the “deep and abiding emotional attachment to original Coca-Cola felt by so many people.”

I feel like the ARU have failed to gauge the emotional attachment many rugby fans have to the Force or Rebels, and even to the 5 teams in general.

It's a sign of wisdom to be able to change your mind when presented with new evidence that contradicts prior assumptions. Unfortunately as a species we're basically hard wired to be stubborn bastards.

 

[barbarian]

I feel like the ARU have failed to gauge the emotional attachment many rugby fans have to the Force or Rebels, and even to the 5 teams in general.

And yet the crowds and TV ratings for the Force and Rebels have been exceedingly poor these past few weeks.

For all the love poured out online, I'm not sure if any it has translated to bums on seats or eyeballs on TV screens.

If the Force got 10k+ to the Kings, and the Rebels had 10k+ to the Brumbies then this course of action may be appealing.......
.

 

[WorkingClassRugger]

And yet the crowds and TV ratings for the Force and Rebels have been exceedingly poor these past few weeks.

For all the love poured out online, I'm not sure if any it has translated to bums on seats or eyeballs on TV screens.

If the Force got 10k+ to the Kings, and the Rebels had 10k+ to the Brumbies then this course of action may be appealing...
.

The Force have traditionally drawn less than spectacular ratings. Mid thirties for mpst games. What should be more concerning for the Rebels is that despite being in the prime timezone their ratings are now at those levels.

 

[amirite]

And yet the crowds and TV ratings for the Force and Rebels have been exceedingly poor these past few weeks.

For all the love poured out online, I'm not sure if any it has translated to bums on seats or eyeballs on TV screens.

If the Force got 10k+ to the Kings, and the Rebels had 10k+ to the Brumbies then this course of action may be appealing...
.

I think people feel disengaged and disconnected. More people mention rugby in passing to me in Melbourne than ever before, but none of it is positive.

 

[NTT]

And yet the crowds and TV ratings for the Force and Rebels have been exceedingly poor these past few weeks.

For all the love poured out online, I'm not sure if any it has translated to bums on seats or eyeballs on TV screens.

If the Force got 10k+ to the Kings, and the Rebels had 10k+ to the Brumbies then this course of action may be appealing...
.

Crowds and tv ratings have been down for all teams.

The online love for the Force has translated into millions of dollars pledged to save them through the Own the Force campaign.

 

[kiap]

The Force have no permanent rights to a Super Rugby licence with SANZAAR.

Everyone one knows that.

The issue is whether they have rights through 2020.

They are reliant on the ARU.

Yeah, but the ARU's degree of freedom is dependent on the Alliance Agreement -- what's in it and whether it still applies.

Clyne's statement on air about this, to the effect of "circumstances have changed", won't augur too well for the ARU if they can't untie their hands from the contract.

As time drags on, it may well be that RugbyWA/Save the Force have a bigger pile of reddies to throw at it than the ARU.

It may be that there is a cost for the ARU to break from the Alliance Agreement

That's the $4.75m question.

 

[barbarian]

Crowds and tv ratings have been down for all teams.

The online love for the Force has translated into millions of dollars pledged to save them through the Own the Force campaign.

That may be so. But to me the most powerful way to make a statement is to attract a big crowd to a game. A very obvious, loud and lucrative show of support.

Neither team has been able to manage it. Which should be very worrying for whichever side that remains.
.

 

[daz]

The Force have traditionally drawn less than spectacular ratings. Mid thirties for mpst games. What should be more concerning for the Rebels is that despite being in the prime timezone their ratings are now at those levels.

Most neutrals only watch other teams if the product is worthy of engaging in. Saturday night, Easter long weekend, I'd be surprised if anyone except die-hard fans bothered to watch the Rebs/Brums game.

And let's be honest, who outside of the Rebels faithful is going to invest in a Friday night game (a Rebels traditional game-time) to watch a bottom of the ladder team lose, even if that is an Oz team?

To be fair though, the majority of Oz games this year are a frustrating snooze-fest.

 

[Omar Comin']

And yet the crowds and TV ratings for the Force and Rebels have been exceedingly poor these past few weeks.

For all the love poured out online, I'm not sure if any it has translated to bums on seats or eyeballs on TV screens.

If the Force got 10k+ to the Kings, and the Rebels had 10k+ to the Brumbies then this course of action may be appealing...
.

But is this because people don't care about the teams or because they're so fed up with everything external to the teams? Crowds and ratings are down across the board, I don't think it's because everyone who likes the sport of rugby suddenly stopped liking it.

The Force were dead in the water, but if thousands of their fans and a few heavy hitters are willing to put their hands in their pockets to help them swim for the foreseeable future, why not let them? Is the ARU really going to say 'nice work raising millions of dollars everyone, but we don't want you' when they could say 'nice work raising millions of dollars everyone, we underestimated the level of support and you've shown us a new way forward' ?

 

[TOCC]

I don't think that will be the case. The Force have no permanent rights to a Super Rugby licence with SANZAAR. They are reliant on the ARU.

It may be that there is a cost for the ARU to break from the Alliance Agreement but contracts are broken all the time.

Ultimately I think the ARU will cut a team and it will end up being whichever causes the least financial pain.

Well they reportedly have a contract which state they are to remain in Super Rugby until 2020...

If they had no legal grounds to stand on, and the ARU had made their choice(which they've had months to do), then announcement should have been made already..

 

[NTT]

That may be so. But to me the most powerful way to make a statement is to attract a big crowd to a game. A very obvious, loud and lucrative show of support.

Neither team has been able to manage it. Which should be very worrying for whichever side that remains.
.

Which all comes back to what i have been consistently saying.
Do the franchises that are considered safe have measures in place to deal with the financial impacts of poor crowds, lack of sponsors and a tv deal that may in fact be for a lower amount come 2020?
Has proper risk assessment been done?
Do these remaining franchises restructure and make moves towards cost cutting or will they resume current practice of relying on the ARU being in a position to constantly provide financial assistance?

 

[Braveheart81]

Well they reportedly have a contract which state they are to remain in Super Rugby until 2020.

If they had no legal grounds to stand on, and the ARU had made their choice(which they've had months to do), then announcement should have been made already..

They have gained an injunction to delay the decision.

I agree they probably have some legal grounds to stand on. I also doubt they will to the extent that the ARU can't make a decision to cut them and face the legal consequences that come from that.