Where to for Super Rugby?

[Twoilms]

We can stop arguing about it now, anyway. Cox was supposedly told as long as four weeks ago the Rebels would not be cut. The Brumbies are not going to be cut and unless the ARU want to go full Brexit neither QRU or NSWRU will be cut.

The Force it is. What a sad day.

 

[lou75]

You would think the ARU would have a clause about terminating a license in the case of insolvency, in other words, the first club to become insolvent will have its license terminated - Western Force seem to have a guarantee of ARU support to 2020 (will this be worth more than the paper it is written on?) - Rebels have the unlimited resources of Cox and if they turn off the special funding tap, that may speed up the process and eliminate the need for legal action re being sued

 

[Twoilms]

You would think the ARU would have a clause about terminating a license in the case of insolvency, in other words, the first club to become insolvent will have its license terminated - Western Force seem to have a guarantee of ARU support to 2020 (will this be worth more than the paper it is written on?) - Rebels have the unlimited resources of Cox and if they turn off the special funding tap, that may speed up the process and eliminate the need for legal action re being sued

If i was a private owner i would never sign a contract that had such a clause in it, given how risky a Rugby venture in an unfamiliar territory would likely to be. The odds of either Force or Rebels becoming insolvent without ARU backing would be extremely high. It came to pass that both organisations needed ARU funds to remain solvent.

 

[Slim 293]

Whatever happens I'm sure it's all going to run smoothly and without any complications...........

 

[sidelineview]

Alan Jones recently gave his passionate assessment of current proceedings and wasn't kind to the ARU administrators or positive about the current state of Australian rugby.
He just about hit the nail on the head with the guts of what's going on.

The neglect of grassroots rugby: school and club.
People can't identify with Super rugby teams and are bored with the style of game played (in relation to a reunion of the great 1977 Schoolboys team who swept all before them overseas playing brilliant running rugby)
"Building the roof before building the floor".

To say it's a major disappointment is an understatement and i certainly feel for the Force.

How is it the AFL can expand their game so successfully and especially into the grassroots areas, and the ARU can stuff it up so badly. Surely it can't all be about lack of resources.

 

[NTT]

The fundamental business model to super rugby is still broken. The ARU will still be bailing out the remaining franchises because of the broken business model. The franchises simply can not make the required revenue to survive in such a short tournament. The lack of the required number of home games is still a big issue going forward. That is what has caused the $28 million cost blowout. The only way a franchise can be sustainable on 7/8 home games is if an average crowd of 40 000 attend each game. This will now be even more difficult to achieve with alienated fan numbers at an all time high. Asking a professional sporting organization to make 52 weeks of income of 7 games is ludicrous.
Super Rugby is not the cash cow the ARU hoped it would be. For it to work you need paying, attending customers supplementing the ARUs investment.
$20 million to run a franchise.
$7 million from the ARU.
$2 million in sponsorship.
$7 million in ticket sales.
That will always leave a $3-4 million shortfall that the ARU needs to assist with.

Player depth is the biggest crock argument in all of this. It completely ignores the fact that the ARU has commited itself to a dud competition with a broken business model. Not all grassroots participants will see any difference to what they already get. The "saved" money will be ploughed into keeping the other 4 franchises afloat.

Every other argument for cost cutting is a pure lie. If you want to know why every club has gone broke then look at the business model. Its broken. The ARU ignores this basic fact to its detriment.

 

[Dave Beat]

I think you mean Ewen Mac

tah fixed

 

[blues recovery]

Alternative facts?

The Brumbies average crowds and TV ratings were higher than the Rebels in 2 of those first 3 years....

You are wrong buts let's move on

 

[NTT]

You are wrong buts let's move on

Force crowds in 2006 were regularly above 25 000. Melbournes were not.

 

[Strewthcobber]

You would think the ARU would have a clause about terminating a license in the case of insolvency, in other words, the first club to become insolvent will have its license terminated - Western Force seem to have a guarantee of ARU support to 2020 (will this be worth more than the paper it is written on?) - Rebels have the unlimited resources of Cox and if they turn off the special funding tap, that may speed up the process and eliminate the need for legal action re being sued

Last year's ARU agreement with the force complicates that a bit - the ARU own the intellectual property of the Force and all of the players, staff and coaches are actually ARU employees. They probably can't become insolvent as the ARU acted before it happened.

Interesting to see what exactly the legal action from RugbyWA entails beyond the initial injunction preventing a descision being made in the short term

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[NTT]

The 23 000 members the Force had in 2006 is still the highest by any franchise

 

[Jon]

No, the word 'sunk' has a fairly negative connotation. It means the money is already gone, it cannot be reclaimed; it shouldn't be taken into consideration of any future decision.

But it can be reclaimed. RWA and the public are willing to reimburse the ARU for it.


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[Rugbynutter39]

Why would it automatically follow that there would be an increase in revenue from broadcast rights? particularly in Australia?

Pay tv has reached market saturation. Everyone who wants it has it. Now there will be one less aussie team and less interest from Australians in general re rugby, which means declining incomes from rugby for the broadcaster and presumably a flow on effect to the ARU coffers. Argentina and Japan are already part of the current deal, are the ARU taking to the bank some sort of exponential growth in those markets to offset the loss in domestic demand?

The ARU's cash cow the wallabies are also in a mess, the ARU for years have ignored the grassroots and done nothing to correct the slide in both junior numbers and development, betting the farm on ex-league mercenaries to keep the wallabies winning. Their silly graphs they handed out at the presser as their justification for boning an aussie super rugby team shows this to be wrong. As usual the ARU has everything arse about.

I am disappointed and angry (although not surprised) with the ARU. Some of the poor work of ARU highlighted by this situation includes agreeing to the expansion with Jaguares, Kings and Sunwolves despite being warned it wasn't a good idea, some of the clauses they agreed to in Rebels "privatisation" agreement and the fact they didn't stick up for all of our teams at SANZAAR. Also if the reports are to be believed saying we need to do more consultation and then going to Perth swinging the axe.

99% of the time GAGR is full of friendly banter between supporters of different clubs. This fiasco has led to slanging matches between supporters, particularly Rebels and Force fans, some based on fact some not so much. Nice work ARU, your level of fan engagement has dropped and now you have a portion of existing fans fighting amongst ourselves and I assume a fair portion of the fans of the axed team walk away from rugby.

In my opinion both the Force and Rebels have good development pathway programs, which are both important for the future of the ARU. Unfortunately one of these pathways is going to be cut off at the knees due in large part to the ineptness of the ARU.

I assume, despite this decision, the ARU plan to re-enter the axed city in the future, well good luck with that.

A sad day for Australian rugby.

I will feel for rebels or force fans whoever is dropped as both markets offer some long term growth and most have made progress developing rugby in their states. Most of the banter is pretty respectful as dropping neither side is desirable from long term perspective but yes short term imperative as aru is struggling to generate growth long term and definitely not the brains trust to turn things short term.

I can only see a future when current aru members get punted and some real sports administrative talent is brought in with some real strategic leadership skills.

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[Slim 293]

You are wrong buts let's move on

The Rebels only had higher average crowds and TV ratings than the Brumbies in 2011.

2011 (crowds/ratings)
Rebels 17,141 / 83,250
Force 16,201 66,467
Brumbies 13,083 / 83,143

2012
Brumbies 14,419 / 101,750
Rebels 13,914 / 97,538
Force 13,255 / 95,417

2013
Brumbies 14,287 / 109,000
Force 12,631 / 89,850
Rebels 11,442 / 103,000

But yes, let's move on.

 

[blues recovery]

Force crowds in 2006 were regularly above 25 000. Melbournes were not.

I'm talking about 2011, 2012 and 2013

 

[NTT]

The only reason the Force signed the Alliance Agreement was that it guaranteed our survival untill 2020 to give us a chance to sort out our finances. No deal would have been made otherwise.

 

[NTT]

I'm talking about 2011, 2012 and 2013

You said Melbournes crowds were higher than the Forces in their first 2 years aswell as tv ratings.

 

[GaffaCHinO]

A post on TWF from a very highly placed insider at the force.

General 22:23 Yesterday
Well folks I was at the meeting today and what these two chaps presented to us was the most fundamentally flawed evaluation you could possibly imagine. The details will come out in the press but basically the case was if we bin the Rebels Cox will demand a large break fee and the Victorian Government won't sign the 2020 Blediloe Cup Heads of Agreement or the British and Irish Lions match deal which hasn't even been negotiated. So in the end it's the Force versus the Victorian Goverment and the Rebels are just a side show. Of course we have willingly offered to host both the 2020 Blediloe and the Lions Test in our fine new stadium.
This has been a stitch up for ages. We have served a writ which will lead to an injunction not because of this bollocks but because scrapping us will lead to a breach of our Alliance Agreement. Government has agreed to support us and is also looking at their own rights having been duped by the ARU investing $100mm into the code and funding a further $5mm for the 2019 Bledilsloe. Cox will be going after them next.
Hold onto your hats.

 

[NTT]

No argument from me here . Apologies to the passionate supporters of Rugby in the west , but having a well run , professional Rugby presence in Melbourne for all of the other competing interests in the city ,has far more upside .
In its first three years the Rebels crowds , sponsorship , membership and tv viewing numbers were significantly higher than both the Force and the Brumbies .I know this as fact .
Problem was from its very outset the club bleed money for both self inflicted and ARU inflicted reasons .What is not remembered here is how difficult the ARU made it for the Rebels to recruit its original playing roster with it being impossible for the Rebels to sign ARU contracted players in its initial setup.
This lead to the roster being a combination of expensive foreign players (Cipriani, Delve etc , grizelled wounded veterans (Mortlock , Freier), League converts ( Saffy , Vuna , Rooney ) and untried youngsters ( Pyle , Phibbs,Du Plessis).
And this team cost 7.5 million a year almost 3 million more than the other Oz teams with there abundance of Wallaby top ups . And a little reported fact is the Rebels received less ARU funding than the rest of the teams in its first two years .All of this on top of the self inflicted issues such as appointment of the first CEO lead to the club losing 12 million dollars in its first two years . This includes 5 million in 2010 when they hadn't kicked a football yet
This is a financial burden the club has never recovered from despite a lot of people with solid business acumen including the current owners best endeavours .
Unfortunately the business model just doesn't work , even in good times let alone when you throw this current cluster fxxx into the mix .
That's why I'm putting myself in Coxs shoes and from a business perspective saying "How do I get out and take these bastards money with me as I leave "

According to you it is a "fact".

 

[Rugbynutter39]

You said Melbournes crowds were higher than the Forces in their first 2 years aswell as tv ratings.

Does anybody think super rugby can recover from this from oz perspective as feel so many fans have been lost on super rugby

Time for better investments in alternatives ...long form semi pro nrc season perhaps...as if aru can't see risks super rugby might not recover from here with whatever changes it needs to get off its arse and look at lower risk plan b.s. as fallbacks

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