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Where to for Super Rugby?

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dru

David Wilson (68)
Fair cop, I haven’t noted who was actually saying what, just that similar comments had been made quite often

I didn’t think much of the Chinese ambassador stunt, but otherwise have great respect for the guy. I’m with you btw, some of the comments (skimming $ etc) have been below the belt. His appearance within the rugby world is 100% good as far as I am concerned.
 

The Honey Badger

Jim Lenehan (48)
Still don’t get the hate towards Twiggy Forrest.. those who criticise him act as though he is the only person who is acting with a bit of self-interest in this whole Australian rugby community, despite it being rampant in the eastern states for decades.

The constant swipes at Twiggy just come across as jealousy.. shit I hope a $billionaire comes forward and saves the Reds when Super Rugby capitulate.. not likely to happen though

Lets direct them towards Australia's First Rugby Province,
 

oztimmay

Tony Shaw (54)
Staff member
I think the thread is running out of puff.

Not a single post for 24 hours,

Mods time to close it down and archive


Nope, just catching it's breath.

I wanna see what happens when it makes 1,000 pages.

Besides, ther will be a lot to ttalk aobut with new competition structes on the horizion.
 

half

Dick Tooth (41)
I wanna see what happens when it makes 1,000 pages.

Not allowed to happen

Tis against forum laws.

If someone foolishly posts a post that takes us to 1, 000 pages.

Well the world will stop spinning on its current axis.

In fact the world will stop spinning.

Then spin in the opposite direction.

Meaning all life as we know it will die

AND it will be the fault of the fool


Who made the post to get 1, 000 pages
 

oztimmay

Tony Shaw (54)
Staff member
Gotta be another 100+ pages worth right there :)

At least.

In her article, Geerob raises a ot of questions, and a lot of possible scenarios. Some thoughts:

I don't really think our NZ friends are trying to strong-arm a 6th kiwi franchise. There is certainly the talent, but I donth think there is the cash to fund another team. Perhaps PE may change that view.

There's an underlying assumption the Western Force WANT to play in a Trans-Tasman comp again. All indications from the west indicate they want to make GRR a success. But it the easy option just to go all-in for a trans-tasman comp with the east coast elitist? Also, is Twiggy prepared to fund a team that doesn't play in GRR?

I personally can't ever see a Rebels/Brumbies merger ever happening. First, the broadcast deal would have to be so low that they can't afford four teams. Then, RugbyAU would have to fail to secure private equity for runing Super Rugby; given the interest in VC's funding sporting comps, I find this scenario unlikely.

I'd also think that PE could be source by the Rebels / Brumbies before they fell into a financial hole. It's been done before.

I also can't see a broadcaster wanting to buy rights where no Melbourne team (population size, PTV subscriptions, population growth, etc...) or a Canberra team(histroical performance).

Still, we have the next 100 pages to speculate on the topic.
 

RedsHappy

Tony Shaw (54)
Somewhat deeper data below re Foxtel and the FFA media rights talks breakdown as have been reported in AFR (and referenced here for potential indirect relevance to Foxtel and Super Rugby 2021+):

- Foxtel pulled archive footage of FFA-related video material not through some kind of negotiating tactic (as leaped upon above by the I Hate Foxtel & Murdoch Brigade without any affirmed evidence .....as usual), but rather their legal view was one that as they had withdrawn from their FFA contract under force majeure contractual clauses, they automatically had no extant legal ights to FFA images and such material

- Foxtel pre-COVID was paying FFA $A57m pa under a deal through to 2023 (just wow really) which of course post COVID they now want out of

- Post COVID Foxtel offered FFA $11m for 2020 ongoing broadcast rights. FFA rejected this, talks collapsed. Foxtel withdrew.

The $11m is interesting for rugby (if proven to be true, AFR reporting of such matters is usually good). (Btw: $11m is higher than I would have guessed in these circumstances.) Why?

Well as of 2019 FFA A-League matches were achieving Foxtel viewership nos way under those of Super Rugby. (NB: I have not checked out the no of annual A-L matches involved, a potentially relevant variable vs Super Rugby game nos.)

If we take that $11m as a rough marker for the awful A-L Foxtel viewership nos that could be anticipated for 2020, and remembering FFA have little equivalent to the TRC and Bleds* (and assuming the 2021 comp is TT) on top of Super Rugby, it _may_ be able to be sensibly speculated that Foxtel would offer for 2021 all-in rugby in the approximate order of $18-$23m pa. FTA may top this up to the extent of $3m or so (assuming any Foxtel deal is non-inclusive of FTA anti-siphoning with Foxtel to on-sell-to-FTA rights).

What posters here often forget is that, in a 2021+ scenario that does not include SA rugby in any form - highly likely -, then RA lose the big US$ gain of the 3-4-way media rights pooling split whereby all 4 SANZAAR parties' media rights $s are pooled and then, by and large, divided such that the bigger 3 get the lion's share as an average and a smaller % share is left over for Argentina. This has always very materially benefitted RA disproportionally and partly why they became lazy leeches to the SANZAAR model. Now, in a TT comp, what new pooling formula (if any) would apply is very uncertain today as SKY SPORTS NZ paid a truckload in late 2019 for SANZAAR & Bled etc media rights post 2021 and the NZRU are not likely to give up the lion's share of those $s (which now may be reduced contractually if SA leave the comp) in a simple 50/50 total media rights pooling deal with RA, especially if the Aust media rights $s obtained for 2021+ are poor pro-team-rata as compared to NZ's.

The final complication is what media $s any new TT pro rugby comp for 2021+ could extract from Nth Hem media players. These $s were boom-bonanza level huge for 2015+ for various reasons and will be way, way less this time round and diluted further by the lack of SA games which are perfect for Nth Hem TZs. But there will be some 2021 +Nth Hem rugby media rights $s nonetheless, these are additive to RA's and the NZRU's coffers.

So the holistic picture is complicated but nonetheless still points to any Foxtel offer for post 2020 to RA being materially below the 2015-2019 levels and the total aggregate $s also being way less for all the reasons noted above.

The big question remaining of course being whether whatever total media $s RA can gain are enough to fund 4 Aust top pro teams and fund them not just for raw survival day-to-day but, critically, in a manner that ensures their viability in terms of coaching and squad quality. RA is surely smart enough** to know: they MUST be able to fund teams to a level of base delivered playing quality or any TT comp will see little but Aust teams being routinely smashed by NZ ones and thus the vicious circles of fan disengagement - proxied by crowd and viewership nos - will be just accelerating further downwards versus being arrested and improved.

(* It may be that Foxtel will wait to bid on RA's 2021 pro rugby plans until they see what the viewerships for 2020's TRC and Bleds are like, who could blame them if so.)
(** Did I just say that?)
 

half

Dick Tooth (41)
^^^^^^^^^^^^^

FFA are in the processing a new deal for 12 months worth 32 million. Previous deal was 57 Million. Deal includes broadcasting as well.

This after Fox cancelled their previous deal.

The new deal as I understand it allows FFA to approach other broadcaster something the previous deal did not.

Seems FFA have taken a gamble, refused Fox's offer, believe they can get their house in order and reset in 12 months. The deal also allows them to reset when they hold their season.
 

half

Dick Tooth (41)
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

This is very very very very very important for Super Rugby nay beyond very very very important. More is coming out on what is happening and this will effect rugby.

FFA plan to move to a winter competition and introduce P & R, thereby creating a second division.

https://www.smh.com.au/sport/soccer/a-league-set-for-winter-switch-after-securing-new-fox-sports-deal-20200619-p554dx.html

Why is this so so so so so so very very very important for Super Rugby.

Because FFA under their new CEO are building what they essentially had a three year civil war and they will if they can pull it off be in direct competition with rugby.

Their belief is they by playing across winter they can connect to their player base.

The new and quite young CEO they have is uniting the stakeholders behind him.
 

hoggy

Nev Cottrell (35)
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

This is very very very very very important for Super Rugby nay beyond very very very important. More is coming out on what is happening and this will effect rugby.

FFA plan to move to a winter competition and introduce P & R, thereby creating a second division.

https://www.smh.com.au/sport/soccer/a-league-set-for-winter-switch-after-securing-new-fox-sports-deal-20200619-p554dx.html

Why is this so so so so so so very very very important for Super Rugby.

Because FFA under their new CEO are building what they essentially had a three year civil war and they will if they can pull it off be in direct competition with rugby.

Their belief is they by playing across winter they can connect to their player base.

The new and quite young CEO they have is uniting the stakeholders behind him.

So who would have thought, connect to your grassroots strategy bloody amateurs o_O
 

WorkingClassRugger

Michael Lynagh (62)
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

This is very very very very very important for Super Rugby nay beyond very very very important. More is coming out on what is happening and this will effect rugby.

FFA plan to move to a winter competition and introduce P & R, thereby creating a second division.

https://www.smh.com.au/sport/soccer/a-league-set-for-winter-switch-after-securing-new-fox-sports-deal-20200619-p554dx.html

Why is this so so so so so so very very very important for Super Rugby.

Because FFA under their new CEO are building what they essentially had a three year civil war and they will if they can pull it off be in direct competition with rugby.

Their belief is they by playing across winter they can connect to their player base.

The new and quite young CEO they have is uniting the stakeholders behind him.


That's not the A-League's primary problem. What would you as a fan prefer? Tuning into the EPL with a raft of the best players and best known brands in the game or the A-League which doesn't even rank in the Top 50 leagues in the world? It's base know it's bush league and know where/how they can access better for at least the same if not less than a Foxtel/Kayo subscription.

Fortunately for us in Rugby it's still not so clear cut and we could still present a compelling option for Rugby fans locally. And I do take encouragement from the deal. Particularly from a TT competition perspective as the A-League last couple of seasons in terms of TV ratings have made Super Rugby look positively stellar. And that's with the average being dragged down by out of time zone games in SA and Argentina.

A 10 team TT competition playing a double round robin format averaging >50k should be worth at least the same going from the most recent seasons average a 12 team league playing over 22 rounds averaging just a tick over 20k a game. Arguably twice as much.
 
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