Where to for Super Rugby?

[Gnostic]

To take another tangent, as much as there seems to be some glee at the ARU and / or individuals within it being financially ruined by Andrew Cox, where does that leave an escape solution?

If the ARU is ruined financially, what happens?

If individual board members face personal liability, how does that play with finding a new board?

Who finds the new board? It seems management structures within Aus Professional rugby are inherently batfisted, so who oversees the establishment of a new structure?

I personally find the notion that Andrew Cox et al can financially devastate the ARU more than a bit unnerving, regardless of whether the ARU brought this all upon themselves.

Just some random thoughts, since most of the previous thoughts on this thread have been round the block so many times they remind me of this bloke.

View attachment 9254

Hence why I was suggesting an idea that just might sneek through and allow the ARU to survive as an organisation, but there can be no doubt that every member of the board and the executive are toast. Just this situation is enough to make that outcome essential.

You know that my preferred outcome is an Independent Commission style governing body, but I'll accept anything that sees the game flourish in Australia AND produces systems that have rigorous integrity.

 

[RedsHappy]

Well, we don't really know what he wants, do we? Quite a few posters seem quite accepting of the concept he could ruin the ARU Why is that perceived to be a good thing?
As for my other questions...

I'll come to those soon ;-).

 

[Gnostic]

Well, we don't really know what he wants, do we? Quite a few posters seem quite accepting of the concept he could ruin the ARU Why is that perceived to be a good thing?

As for my other questions...

Brexit and Trump effect - a tipping point is reached and some people are quite happy to just see a fire burn down the perceived source of their angst with no discrimination.

I am a bit more discerning, I like a good fire as much as the next anarchist, but prefer to focus that fire and put target on a slow roast for a while till I get bored.

 

[cyclopath]

Brexit and Trump effect - a tipping point is reached and some people are quite happy to just see a fire burn down the perceived source of their angst with no discrimination.

I am a bit more discerning, I like a good fire as much as the next anarchist, but prefer to focus that fire and put target on a slow roast for a while till I get bored.

OK, where do people think the "new faces" will come from? If someone trots out Demetriou et al (i.e. other highly paid successful sports administrators from other sports) as the white knights, why would anyone expect them to do it for change, which might be all that is left? Guys like him are used to being the apex predator in the organisation. The ARU is likely to be the comedy relief at SANZAAR (if it endures) and World Rugby for some time to come after all this. Can't see someone of his calibre wanting to play that role. The reality is that those anxious and eager to step into the management vacuum will be other entrenched "rugby men" (probably not woman, they're likely far too sensible to want any part of this fetid swamp) with a different set of the same short-comings.
Just my feelings.

 

[Slim 293]

Cue Slim in 3...2...1...

 

[Gnostic]

OK, where do people think the "new faces" will come from? If someone trots out Demetriou et al (i.e. other highly paid successful sports administrators from other sports) as the white knights, why would anyone expect them to do it for change, which might be all that is left? Guys like him are used to being the apex predator in the organisation. The ARU is likely to be the comedy relief at SANZAAR (if it endures) and World Rugby for some time to come after all this. Can't see someone of his calibre wanting to play that role. The reality is that those anxious and eager to step into the management vacuum will be other entrenched "rugby men" (probably not woman, they're likely far too sensible to want any part of this fetid swamp) with a different set of the same short-comings.

Just my feelings.

"Drain the Swamp"

Totally valid worries/questions and ones we will know the answer to this year as there is no doubt in my mind at all that everyone currently in place are in an untenable position given what has transpired. Maybe some masochist who loves a challenge will be up for it. It isn't a good enough reason though to continue on as we are with people who led us to this.

I do think the ARU have been a laughing stock for some time at SANZAAR and IRB levels. How could they not be?

Hence why the systems are more important than the individuals IMO. They need to be robust enough to survive idiots, and the parochial vested interests.

 

[Gnostic]

And if they aren't, well, I couldn't care less if Cox bankrupts and shuts down the entire code in the country, as the code will have ceased to exist for me the moment the Rebels fold. But I'm sure it won't come to that, and please refer to point 1 above as my reason why.



Not sure I could be any clearer.

So DAZ you aren't really a fan of the game, just of your side. Please refer to Post 6083 about some people happy to burn down the house. That's fine, I do like a fire as I said, just don't be upset when the rest of us are trying to keep the damage to a minimum while pushing the executive and board back into the flames.

If the Tahs ceased to exist tomorrow I'd saddened but still be watching the game, locally, in Euroland and anywhere else, even if I have no idea who is playing and looking forward to the next trip away with the boys.

 

[RedsHappy]

Fuck me, every man and his dog seems to "know" what Cox wants. Unless you have been in his business meetings, the only thing we "know" is what has been released on his behalf. And they are:

1. He won't sell the Rebels licence to the ARU.
2. He reserves his legal rights.
3. Come to the next home game against the Crusaders.

Whatever else that may or may not be going on in the background is pure speculation.

Keep talking about the Rebels, by all means, but it seems to me that the Rebels (and possibly the Force) are the least exposed contractually, and therefore safest, of all the Oz Super Rugby teams.

And if they aren't, well, I couldn't care less if Cox bankrupts and shuts down the entire code in the country, as the code will have ceased to exist for me the moment the Rebels fold. But I'm sure it won't come to that, and please refer to point 1 above as my reason why.

Not sure I could be any clearer.

You could be a tad more factualy thorough though - to add to your list above on or about May 19 Cox told The Australian that he would definitely be suing the ARU for damages 'next week' and for a sum likely to exceed $12m.

Once this was announced, its remarkable specificity permits a certain amount of more targeted and perhaps quite credible speculation as to his motivation and objectives in taking such a major public step.

 

[chibimatty]

If Cox wants salary caps lifted so he can buy players, what would be the negative ramifications? What if it helps retain Aussies who would have gone abroad, or regains Aussie union players who went across to RL when they were younger?

 

[Inside Shoulder]

You could be a tad more factualy thorough though - to add to your list above on or about May 19 Cox told The Australian that he would definitely be suing the ARU for damages 'next week' and for a sum likely to exceed $12m.

Once this was announced, its remarkable specificity permits a certain amount of more targeted and perhaps quite credible speculation as to his motivation and objectives in taking such a major public step.

When was"next week"? Was it literal or relative? If the former then that's one thing he hasn't done that he said he would.
Could there be others?
Maybe he's playing chicken...........
With geese

 

[KOB1987]

I think we have to veto the SANZAAR decision, restructure into 3 x 6-team conferences (with fan engagement not results potential as the main criteria for structuring the draw) until 2020, and then we go domestic.

We worked out several pages back that a domestic comp of 8 teams would cost about $80m to run ($10m per club) if we want to keep the best players on the payroll and get some marquees in. Surely with our top players on board Fox or beIN would pay for the rights and there'd be some FTA interest. It would probably have to be undersold initially to get it off the ground but just do a 2 year deal or something to begin with. Clubs would generate further revenue from sponsorships, memberships, bums on seats and merchandise. There'd still be a shortfall initially, have a capital raising to get some cash to run the comp for a few years (I'd buy in to the right business model for sure), market it right, play good footy and then build it from there.

Maybe play that comp until the July test window, and then we have some representative fixtures. 4 teams - Qld, NSW, ACT/Vic and 'The rest' (similar to Combined States at schoolboy level, they can still take the spillover from the other regions).

Maybe this is a bit 'pie in the sky' but I think we have to take a risk like this and be ambitious to rebirth the game in this country.

 

[cyclopath]

I think we have to veto the SANZAAR decision, restructure into 3 x 6-team conferences (with fan engagement not results potential as the main criteria for structuring the draw) until 2020, and then we go domestic.

We worked out several pages back that a domestic comp of 8 teams would cost about $80m to run ($10m per club) if we want to keep the best players on the payroll and get some marquees in. Surely with our top players on board Fox or beIN would pay for the rights and there'd be some FTA interest. It would probably have to be undersold initially to get it off the ground but just do a 2 year deal or something to begin with. Clubs would generate further revenue from sponsorships, memberships, bums on seats and merchandise. There'd still be a shortfall initially, have a capital raising to get some cash to run the comp for a few years (I'd buy in to the right business model for sure), market it right, play good footy and then build it from there.

Maybe play that comp until the July test window, and then we have some representative fixtures. 4 teams - Qld, NSW, ACT/Vic and 'The rest' (similar to Combined States at schoolboy level, they can still take the spillover from the other regions).

Maybe this is a bit 'pie in the sky' but I think we have to take a risk like this and be ambitious to rebirth the game in this country.

I don't think it's a sure thing at all that TV would be throwing much money at it. Look where a massive chunk of the TV money "originates" now. Franchises are already struggling with sponsors now, too. Don't forget, a fair bit of ARU resources needs to be used, many believe, for development of coaching structures / national academies etc, with which I strongly agree. I think the money will be a big limiting factor.
I like the sentiment but I am not so sure it will work.

 

[dru]

@KOB firm agreement.

Possibly add return to Soup at a later stage with more stability when it is designed to work for us as well as NZ.

 

[dru]

I don't think it's a sure thing at all that TV would be throwing much money at it. Look where a massive chunk of the TV money "originates" now. Franchises are already struggling with sponsors now, too. Don't forget, a fair bit of ARU resources needs to be used, many believe, for development of coaching structures / national academies etc, with which I strongly agree. I think the money will be a big limiting factor.
I like the sentiment but I am not so sure it will work.

There is certainly a roundabout happening with many of these sub-topics.

Cyclo, as things are portrayed the bulk of ARU income comes from the Wallabies. We should do all we can to keep this stable. Which admittedly will prove delicate as we need to maintain our role within SANZAR at the internationals, whilst we have problems with SANZAR in the Soup. None-the-less our target should be to maintain status quo with the Wallabies.

For the Super teams, TV funding has been limited by a lack of domestic content along with sensible scheduling. Those restrictions should evaporate along with the consequent strain on funding. Of course this is against a background where TV income is dropping. Deal with it now or in 2020 - for the longevity of the game is there much difference? Also the drop in cost from international travel and associated issues - that's an opportunity cost that can be reallocated to additional teams in a domestic comp.

All things being equal a target of maintaining funding does not seem ridiculous. Of course things are not "equal" and funding would need careful management with an expectation to start with less and then try to build. imo do it now, or do it after the ARU finishes sliding down the abyss.

 

[No4918]

Well said. I must admit I personally couldn't care less about any other team. I'm a Rebels supporter, and the other Oz teams mean as much to me as the SA and NZ teams do.

As for Coxy, it's his team and his money. As long as he keeps the Rebels going he can do whatever he wants with his money. It doesn't bother me in the slightest.

I think supporters of other teams need to worry about their team, rather than tin foil hatting what Coxy is or isn't doing. Now, let's put some energy and thought into a Rebels 2018 thread.

Shit attitude. Most fans don't want a team cut. It's only normal that speculation (often with reasonable basis) about Cox and what will happen is discussed here. Hardly seems a legitimate reason to tell the other clubs where to go. They are not to blame for this cluster fuck. The Force are not to blame either,getting upset that they are taking every measure available to stay alive while your club does the same is unreasonable.

What happens to your precious Melbourne rugby when the other clubs are weakened? Rugby will also die down there too if the game continues to fucking canabalise itself.

Very few people here seem to be acting in the long-term interest of the code. Not the Rebels or Force, or the ARU, or probably QLD, NSW or Canberra.

It's all fucked. Too many fuckers still, after all this, only interested in what's best for them. And I put Cox in that category too. But don't confuse that with me being happy a team is going to be cut.

There are no winners here. Everyone loses, all that varies is the extent of the loss. Most important of all, and sorry if this insults your Rebels pride, is the damage being done to the code. Because the loss of rugby as a legitimate game is this country is a much sadder prospect than the loss of one club, and that's what will happen when fans in general develop your insular attitude.

 

[cyclopath]

There is certainly a roundabout happening with many of these sub-topics.

Cyclo, as things are portrayed the bulk of ARU income comes from the Wallabies. We should do all we can to keep this stable. Which admittedly will prove delicate as we need to maintain our role within SANZAR at the internationals, whilst we have problems with SANZAR in the Soup. None-the-less our target should be to maintain status quo with the Wallabies.

For the Super teams, TV funding has been limited by a lack of domestic content along with sensible scheduling. Those restrictions should evaporate along with the consequent strain on funding. Of course this is against a background where TV income is dropping. Deal with it now or in 2020 - for the longevity of the game is there much difference? Also the drop in cost from international travel and associated issues - that's an opportunity cost that can be reallocated to additional teams in a domestic comp.

All things being equal a target of maintaining funding does not seem ridiculous. Of course things are not "equal" and funding would need careful management with an expectation to start with less and then try to build. imo do it now, or do it after the ARU finishes sliding down the abyss.

If we bail out of SANZAAR as far as Super Rugby goes, Tests will likely be affected too. All these things are linked. I don't think our bargaining position is such that we can pick the pathway to "suit ourselves" and get the upside while dumping all the downside. We hold few decent cards.

 

[Braveheart81]

Surely the only way to really reform Australian rugby would be for the powerful state unions to essentially collapse themselves and cede power to the ARU which would need a substantial overhaul in terms of corporate governance etc.

The areas of the game that need the most attention are under the least control by the ARU. They need money with no way of generating it themselves.

There are too many levels of bureaucracy between the top and the bottom.

 

[RedsHappy]

I don't think it's a sure thing at all that TV would be throwing much money at it. Look where a massive chunk of the TV money "originates" now. Franchises are already struggling with sponsors now, too. Don't forget, a fair bit of ARU resources needs to be used, many believe, for development of coaching structures / national academies etc, with which I strongly agree. I think the money will be a big limiting factor.
I like the sentiment but I am not so sure it will work.

I think you are right, overall.

I do think that a well-structured elite rugby domestic comp that replaced Super Rugby in Australia would continue to interest Foxtel but of course at a much lower $ pa figure than today especially for the 'prove it works' years. International broadcasters would probably add a moderate amt to that. Live streaming with tailored sponsorship and advertising may be a supplementary option. FTA's interest except at the margins would be very debatable until proven 'good enough' audiences were established.

If the new elite rugby domestic comp was structured and promoted carefully I think a case could be made that Foxtel's rugby-hungry subscription base would not suffer greatly particularly if Foxtel could (a) obtain the rights to show NZ-based Super games vs RSA teams and derbies (as there would be no games vs Aus teams unless a Champions League or such like was added on top) and (b) get streaming rights (low production costs) to a good selection of the Sydney and Brisbane Premier grade matches, and that should be possible somehow. That is, some imaginative new packaging.

Complicating that picture is that Foxtel's weekly production cost for the altered elite comp here may be similar to today's assuming the same production standards/camera numeracy (though a major saving could be made by dismissing all their truly awful commentators and removing their laughable weekly TV commentary programs). So TV production costs would almost certainly need to be materially cut to match up with the reduced value of the comp to the principal broadcaster.

What I keep coming back to though is the proper examination of the holistic, total, all-in cost base in the ARU and all State RU's coupled with a ruthless assessment in the scenarios being considered here of what the game's support and investment priorities really are (this has not happened even within today's status quo btw; we are pretty much paying for and investing in what we always have as though by habit).

There are literally $ millions pa that can saved from poorly productive ARU HQ costs - which are still very substantial - and a full removal of large State RU duplication of marketing, back office, admin and irrationally duplicated national functions.

Further costs could be stripped out on that 'ruthless assessment of priorities' referenced above in a wholly new Australian rugby landscape as we are contemplating here, just as examples only:

- can the men's 7s program, it's got nowhere and won't without further investment in superior coaching and recruitment

- can the U20s program in its current form with large o/s travel expenses and so on

- can super-elite player deals like the insane $1m pa to Pocock in the twilight of his career and similarly Izzy F-like deals, they are just not affordable and their true pay-back is highly debatable

- get all the RU's that are in high-cost locations into low-cost ones

I make the above points re the total Australian rugby structural cost base as it's a far too-neglected topic and is one that when carefully considered can go some considerable way to making a radical set of innovations in the structure of Australian rugby's elite comps far more viable.

 

[dru]

Well, we don't really know what he wants, do we? Quite a few posters seem quite accepting of the concept he could ruin the ARU Why is that perceived to be a good thing?
As for my other questions...

So there are a couple of issues here. I'll leave the Cox intent alone, but look to the "attitude" of some posters.

The ARU, and a few other commentators, completely misunderstand the scenario. Cutting the Force particularly, and the Rebels are not really that different, is not cutting a team but cutting rugby in those states. OK, my statement is a polemic but so is the ARU view that cutting a team makes economic sense. Reality will sit somewhere the two. The ARU and all other commentators who take a view that cutting a team is good, are being naiive if they expect to have no reaction.

In the mean-time there is an apparent complete lack of ability to hold the ARU to account as we fans are meant to sit idly by going "oh well, they'd only be replaced by another set of equally (un) impressive board members". Why would anyone be surprised that many fans are not willing to accept that "turd sandwich"?

If Cox is the only one who can kick these guys, and it seems so, of course fans caught in this are going to experience something less than disappointment.

Personally I won't be gloating and personally I find comments around "ERU" and "the NE conspiracy" offensive. I'm just as effected by this as fans in Perth and Melbourne. But I try not to jump on those issues nor to get involved in "it should be YOUR team - why should it be mine?". Emotions are running high. It's completely understandable and the ARU are utterly and completely culpable. IMO.

The drop is not just in Perth and Melbourne btw. This is the sum total of friends/family I know who I would have considered rusted on rugby diehards:
x Dad (Qld), fell to the dark side (NRL) for FTA but held a firm interest in Rugby. Now zip.
x Brother (Red but NSW), rugby tragic. First failed to renew Tah membership, now cancelled his Foxtel. He has however gone to two local subby games with me.
x Saffer work mat (Tahs), used to watch Tahs and the Saffer games on replay. Now Tahs only and misses some of those.
x Work-mate (tragic, Woodies and coaches under something-or-other, I think at Newport). Never missed a Tah game and most of the derbies, now watches no Super. Does watch a little SS and of course heaps involved at grass roots.
x Work mate (Tahs, Uni). Did not renew Tah membership, was going to reinvest in Foxtel, hasn't bothered. No rugby involvement other taking the kid to play on the weekend.

Note that NONE of those guys are in Perth/Melbourne.

I try to not join those looking for a slow spit for Clyne. But to be totally honest, if Cox has named the individual members of the ARU board in his legal action, I have some real personal controls issues with it. Trying to put out the flame of schadenfreude. The term "just deserts" keeps springing out at me.

 

[KOB1987]

If we bail out of SANZAAR as far as Super Rugby goes, Tests will likely be affected too. All these things are linked. I don't think our bargaining position is such that we can pick the pathway to "suit ourselves" and get the upside while dumping all the downside. We hold few decent cards.

Yes, as someone pointed out our economy is one of them. I don't think SANZAAR would want too ditch us completely, but they aren't going to accommodate our every request either so some middle ground would have to be met. As far as tests go, NZ will still want to play the Bledisloe every year and I'd be surprised if the Saffers aren't up for a home and away fixture every year as well.

I think it's good that everyone is thinking about things, what actually ends up happening with the provincial competition(s) probably hasn't even been written down yet. Maybe it will turn out that every country has their own domestic comp for 10 weeks or so and the top 2 from each conference and a couple of wild cards convene for 6 weeks or so of play offs. Who knows!