There is so much to savour about this final, which should be a battle for the ages. It features traditional rivals with a history of contesting finals. The best team in the competition in 2014 versus the best team in the tournament’s history. On paper these are the two most balanced, talented and highly credentialed teams in the competition. And throughout 2014 they have shown that they are the most complete teams, neither side exhibiting any obvious flaws or weaknesses for the opposing coaching team to exploit.
Attack
The Waratahs have been the best attacking team this year. They have scored the most points and tries, and boast attacking threats right across the park. In Israel Folau they have the most dangerous attacking player in world rugby. He is a balanced, powerful ball carrier who runs excellent angles and invariably beats the first defender. He is ably supported by the dynamic Alofa Alofa, and the dangerous Adam Ashley-Cooper and Kurtley Beale in the midfield. Beale’s ability to create space and time for his outside men has been a revelation this year, and one of the main reasons why the Waratahs have been so lethal against all-comers.
The Crusaders attacked lacked potency early in the season, and they really struggled to score tries and make linebreaks. They were guilty of playing lateral, side-to-side rugby, which made them easy to defend against. Coach Todd Blackadder was forced to make some adjustments, and as the season has progressed they have looked more and more dangerous. Nemani Nadolo has been played a key role in the revitalisation of the Crusaders attack. The Fijian international has not only provided a lethal attacking option on the left wing, but he has been given a roving commission, often appearing in the midfield off scrum moves or creating an extra man on the right side. As well as being an excellent ball runner Nadolo has shown a surprisingly safe pair of hands for a man of his size, something he attributes to his junior days in Australia playing AFL. Israel Dagg has improved as the season has progressed and is adding an attacking element to his excellent kicking game. It’s no coincidence that in Folau and Dagg we see the two safest kick receivers in Super Rugby featuring in this game.
Defense
As well as being the best attacking team in Super Rugby for 2014, the Waratahs are also the best defensive team. They combine excellent line speed and communication with consistently high tackle accuracy. They really push the off-side line, testing the referees ability to police this effectively, and this puts immense pressure on opposing teams.
The Crusaders defense has traditionally been one of their strong points, and like the Waratahs they too possess a well organised defensive structure and a high tackle accuracy rate. At times the Crusaders kick chase line has been exposed this season, and even last night Sharks fullback SP Marais regularly beat the first chaser. If the Crusaders give Folau the same opportunities they will be chasing the game from the beginning.
Both teams have the ability to withstand sustained pressure and both teams back their defences in all areas of the field. I expect the Waratahs to target inexperienced winger Kieron Fonotia both with high balls and kicks behind him. The Crusaders will target the Foley/Beale axis and I also expect them to test out the Waratahs driving maul defense. The Crusaders scored three tries from driving mauls against the Highlanders a fortnight ago and they have confidence in using the maul as an attacking weapon.
Set piece
Both teams boast international standard packs, and very powerful, technically proficient set pieces. At lineout time Jacques Potgieter and Kane Douglas will have their hands full against Dominic Bird and Sam Whitelock. Kieran Read was the Crusaders main target in the semi final against the Sharks, and once again I expect him to be used heavily. The Waratahs use a range of targets, but they don’t have a 3rd target of the same quality as Read.
Scrum time will be fascinating. Both scrums have dominated opposing teams this year, and it’s hard to see the front rows doing little more than cancelling each other out this Saturday. Benn Robinson and Owen Franks have battled against each other numerous times, and neither can claim consistent bragging right. The key match up will be Crocket and Kepu on the Waratahs tight head side. If Kepu de-stablise Crockett, and force him up or to collapse, he could really trouble the lanky Crusaders loose-head and earn some crucial penalties. In Palu and Read, both teams have dynamic no.8s who can pose genuine attacking threats if given a stable scrum platform to run off.
Breakdown
As always, the breakdown battle will be crucial in deciding the outcome of Saturday’s final. The Waratahs have proven themselves adept at slowing or disrupting opposition ruck ball, be it legally or otherwise, and this ability to prevent the Crusaders from achieving quick recycle ball will be vitally important to their chances on Saturday. In captain Michael Hooper the Waratahs have the luxury of fielding one of the most potent pilferers in the game, and the Crusaders are going to have to work very hard as a team to ensure he doesn’t isolate ball runners and create crucial turnover opportunities.
The Crusaders are one of the best teams in the competition at affecting ruck turnovers through counter-ruck, and they are quick to sense when the attacking team has failed to commit sufficient numbers to secure ruck ball. The Waratahs are going to have to work hard as a team to commit numbers to the breakdowns and ensure the security of their breakdown ball. Whilst Richie McCaw is no longer the pilfering threat he once was, through the aggressive use of counter-ruck McCaw and his teammates will still apply immense pressure on the Waratahs at ruck time.
Halves
Teams cannot win a Super Rugby title without a genuinely world class first five and in Bernard Foley the Waratahs have finally unearthed a world class pivot. His game management skills are superb and his ability to control the pace and tempo of games has played a huge part in the success of the Waratahs this year. His combination with Nick Phipps has developed and prospered, but even more important has been his evolving relationship and partnership with Kurtley Beale. KB (Kurtley Beale)’s presence takes much of the attacking pressure of Foley and allows him the chance to play himself into the game, and focus on the fundamentals of game management, organising his outside men and playing for territory.
The Crusaders have persisted with Colin Slade at first five. Whilst Slade has had his best season at this level his game is still riddled with inconsistencies, and he is not playing as well as he was prior to the June test window. Dan Carter has shifted effortlessly into no.12 and his presence allows the Crusaders to play a much wider, more expansive style of attack. Andy Ellis has been the form Kiwi halfback of the competition, and he takes on much the responsibility for general play kicking and leading the team around the field. His decision making is second to none and a strong game in next week’s final would send a strong reminder to the All Black selectors that he’s in career best form and wouldn’t look out of place in a black jersey. The Crusaders have opted for a dual halfback strategy with Willie Heinz playing considerable minutes every week and often starting in place of Ellis. Heinz is a quicker, more combative style of halfback and as he showed with his well taken try against the Shark in the semi-final, he offers a dangerous counter-point to Andy Ellis.
Home ground advantage
Home ground advantage is so important in Super Rugby and the Waratahs will glean some benefit from playing in Sydney this weekend. However, the fact that they are playing out at Homebush and not the the SFS, the spiritual home of the Waratahs, will diminish some of this advantage. The Crusaders are the best traveling team in this year's competition and they have won finals away from Christchurch in the past. Moreover, the Crusaders have a good record in Sydney, winning 63% of their games in Australia's largest city and not having lost there since 2003.
Final prediction
Too close to call. My heart says the Crusaders but my head says the Waratahs. Home advantage might just sway things in the Waratahs favour. Let's just hope the better team wins and the final result is not marred in controversy, particularly involving a match official. As much as I'd love to see the Crusaders triumph the Waratahs have been the form team this year and I don't think any Crusaders fans could begrudge them winning their first ever title.
