Waratahs v Lions - 2011R14

[Hawko]

According to me,
Tahs conceding on average 8.8 pens per game.This is the 2nd lowest in the competition.
Of these 8.8, 4.6 are conceded at the ruck/maul. This is the lowest in the competition.
They are missing 11.5 tackles per game this is the 2nd lowest in the comp.
Handling errors are averaging 9.7 per game this is the 5th= highest in comp.
Handling errors contribute to them averaging 19.3 lost possession/turnovers per game. This is 3rd lowest in comp.

Lions conceding on average 9.9 pens per game.This is the 8th lowest in the competition.
Of these 9.9, 5.8 are conceded at the ruck/maul. This is the 6th= highest in the competition.
They are missing 13 tackles per game this 5th= lowest in the comp.
Handling errors are averaging 7.8 per game this is the 2nd lowest in comp.
Handling errors contribute to them averaging 21.3 lost possession/turnovers per game. This is 6th highest in comp.

Is anyone interested in the 95% confidence levels? I'm never sure if I should put those in.

Might post the ref stats 10 mins (if I remember) before the start so check back

Reading down those stats for the Lions gives no hint as to why they are running last. Apart from turnovers, where they are not the worst anyway, the rest of the stats are reasonable to good. Maybe, as the Brumbies found out, they are not the easy pushovers everyone thinks.

However I expect the Tahs to attack them through the forwards and especially through the scrum. After the week off those forwards still standing will at least be fresh and the ginger injected over the last fortnight in the media will have them surely focussed. That being said, we faced the Cheetahs straight after the first bye......

 

[RuckinGoodStats]

Reading down those stats for the Lions gives no hint as to why they are running last. Apart from turnovers, where they are not the worst anyway, the rest of the stats are reasonable to good. Maybe, as the Brumbies found out, they are not the easy pushovers everyone thinks.

However I expect the Tahs to attack them through the forwards and especially through the scrum. After the week off those forwards still standing will at least be fresh and the ginger injected over the last fortnight in the media will have them surely focussed. That being said, we faced the Cheetahs straight after the first bye......

As I've done every game I get a sense that the Lions run hot and cold (I'm building a momentum and pressure scale so I can see this in a game). Lions can come out firing and in the local derbies they do, but fail to come away with any points. Then they do to sleep, opp puts on points. They chop and change a bit in selection so there isn't any real continuity. e.g. they have dropped Jantjies for James and Jantjies was key to winning the game.

Key is to put the foot on throat and keep it there. If the Liosn take the scoring opps that are presented then its a different story on the scoreboard.

 

[Hawko]

Well the team is out and the key changes are:

• TPN and Fitzy will be the hookers. Anyone know who will go to hooker if TPN knocks his head and Fitzy gets a knock on the knee?
• Timani passed a fitness test OK.
• Alcock and Perrett are the opensides, I hope Alcock has another blinder like his last start.
• Cross is at 13, Anesi at 11 and Kingston warms the bench. If anyone can explain it to me I'd be interested, and if anyone saw anything in his starting performances that deserved him getting dropped I'd also like to know. I don't buy the crap about Kingston not being available because of the U20's, that's an argument for playing him more now.
• McKibben rides the pine again. Sometimes form counts for nothing. And what happens if Burgess picks up an injury? McK goes up against the Stormers and Bulls with virtually no game time.

This is selection conservatism to the power of 10, and its not doing the team any good.

 

[Albert]

Well the team is out and the key changes are:

• Alcock and Pettit are the opensides, I hope Alcock has another blinder like his last start.

• 
  
  I'm not an Eastwood supporter, but I'm fucking stoked for Hugh Perrett.

 

[Blue]

Reading down those stats for the Lions gives no hint as to why they are running last. Apart from turnovers, where they are not the worst anyway, the rest of the stats are reasonable to good. Maybe, as the Brumbies found out, they are not the easy pushovers everyone thinks.

However I expect the Tahs to attack them through the forwards and especially through the scrum. After the week off those forwards still standing will at least be fresh and the ginger injected over the last fortnight in the media will have them surely focussed. That being said, we faced the Cheetahs straight after the first bye......

I will be interested to see if they adopt the same "pod" strategy as they did against the Brumbies. I don't think it will be as effective against the Tahs.

They were very good at the breakdown which gave them a lot off momentum and that won't be as easy.

 

[JimboJoe1006]

Well the team is out and the key changes are:

• Cross is at 13, Anesi at 11 and Kingston warms the bench. If anyone can explain it to me I'd be interested, and if anyone saw anything in his starting performances that deserved him getting dropped I'd also like to know. I don't buy the crap about Kingston not being available because of the U20's, that's an argument for playing him more now.
• McKibben rides the pine again. Sometimes form counts for nothing. And what happens if Burgess picks up an injury? McK goes up against the Stormers and Bulls with virtually no game time.

This is selection conservatism to the power of 10, and its not doing the team any good.

Agree on both counts. Can't remember Kingo making any mistakes, perhaps a missed tackle or two against the Blues. The only thing is that he didn't get too involved in the game, listed as making a total of 20 run metres in his starts against Reds and Blues. For a kid though jumping into Super rugby, playing out of position, this can hardly be held against him so easily. I remember he showed some great footwork to jinx around two Reds' defenders but didn't really make any ground afterwards. He has such good work ethic, I know he will become a star for the Tahs soon enough.

 

[Torn Hammy]

NSW is supposed to be the largest nursery for rugby players in Australia.

Does anyone else think it is strange we have to choose between a 32 year old (Cross) and a 19 year old (Kingston) to play outside centre. At inside centre, the next in line to Carter (28) appears to be Apo (19).

As switching players from their preferred positions hasn't really worked this year, maybe the Waratahs should be develpoing more back-up players, particularly in the backs.

 

[fatprop]

Hickey does seem to favour experience and safety over youth and exuberance, it is the only reason I can think of concerning Kingston.

 

[Hawko]

NSW is supposed to be the largest nursery for rugby players in Australia.

Does anyone else think it is strange we have to choose between a 32 year old (Cross) and a 19 year old (Kingston) to play outside centre. At inside centre, the next in line to Carter (28) appears to be Apo (19).

As switching players from their preferred positions hasn't really worked this year, maybe the Waratahs should be develpoing more back-up players, particularly in the backs.

Cross was bought to mainly back up Carter. BKH was back-up to Horne but he's been injured all year and only recently started playing Shute. Kingston was third behind Horne and BKH.

 

[Torn Hammy]

When has Cross ever played inside centre? My point is that if Cross and Carter got run over by a bus tonight, we would be replacing them with two 19 year olds.

 

[Ash]

Cross spent the 2010 Super 14 season at inside centre, with Inman at outside centre.

 

[DPK]

When has Cross ever played inside centre? My point is that if Cross and Carter got run over by a bus tonight, we would be replacing them with two 19 year olds.

Lachie Turner's been 19 for a few years, has he?

 

[Hawko]

When has Cross ever played inside centre? My point is that if Cross and Carter got run over by a bus tonight, we would be replacing them with two 19 year olds.

BKH is 23.

 

[jay-c]

hearing that the tahs are gunna kick as last option in the hope of gettin a 4 try bonus point
great to hear> im bringing a few leaguies to the game> lets hope its a cracker!

 

[fatprop]

When has Cross ever played inside centre? My point is that if Cross and Carter got run over by a bus tonight, we would be replacing them with two 19 year olds.

Cross did rather well last year at the Force at 12.

The plan would have been that if "Cross and Carter got run over by a bus tonight" then Bracken-Henry & Kingston would be called in as Horne is wounded or Hangers to 10, Barnes to 12 and Turner to 13

 

[Jets]

hearing that the tahs are gunna kick as last option in the hope of gettin a 4 try bonus point
great to hear> im bringing a few leaguies to the game> lets hope its a cracker!

I hope that they just play with the balanced game that we all know that they can. The Brumbies kick less than any other team in the comp and it isn't helping them. They need to kick well when they do and run the ball when there is an opportunity for that.

I really hope that the Tah's win the remainder of their games in the home and away season as it would be great to have 2 Australian teams in the finals.

 

[Lee Grant]

Alcock and Perrett are the opensides

I hope that Perrett gets a run. Not many outside of Sydney would know this bloke. He has been overlooked year after year for Super rugby yet year after year he is one of the highest regarded players in the Shute Shield.


There are a couple of reasons mentioned for why he has been ignored:
- the Shute Shield is his highest level (yet he has performed well in the Guiness Premiership).
- he is a skills player and not hard enough for Super rugby - (how do we know?)


Those apparent drawbacks for Super Rugby may be valid, but I'd like to see the proof on the park. At the club level he can play all backrow positions and he is the fastest forward in Sydney which has seen him turn a few scoring opportunities into tries. Earlier this year he was playing for the Oz Baas and Mitch Inman made a clear break. Perrett, with no advantageous angle, ran him down - no try.


I am fairly sure that Hickey picked Perrett because of his knowledge of the player when he was Eastwood coach, but I have no qualms about him for the game the Lions are likely to play. Also, Hickey would know that with a couple of injuries on game day Perrett could play 12, as he has for Bath.


My word, looking at the backline, without the names of Horne, Mitchell and even Pakalani and a fit BKH in it (he's fat now after his injury layoff), it is looking pedestrian, and almost literally, is. Cross is at 13 by the way, and Carter at 12.


Carter has his critics but his work ethic is superior and with the faster fellows available he is fine. However with Carter, Cross and Anesi in the same backline it is no wonder why the Tahs backs struggle to penetrate or take advantage of situations, even when they have a go, which is not often enough.


I would have liked to have seen Turner at 13 which would bring a faster fellow closer to the ball. He is in good form, in bad circumstances. Or young Kingston could have played wing instead of Anesi, who is amiable both in person and pace.


I wouldn't have minded THP Ryan getting a start as part of his development. Weight is not everything but the Lions have a light pack. Fitzy could have been another starter but has been out when TPN wasn't available - though I wouldn't start both Ryan and Fitz in the same game.

 

[topo]

Agree, Lee. I think Perrett could go really well at this level. I suspect those who say he is not hard enough for Super Rugby have never been hit by him. He doesn't seem to lack toughness when I have seen him play. Also agree about Turner and/or Kingston. They need to get some pace into that backline.
I suspect THP Ryan wouldn't mind getting a start, either. However he seems to be thriving under Todd Louden at Uni and is playing good footy at Shute level in a very young pack.

 

[The Mayor of Perth]

Cross spent the 2010 Super 14 season at inside centre, with Inman at outside centre.

Nope, Crossy played 13 'til week 8 against the Stormers.

 

[Rob42]

Lee, as ever, a pleasure to read your contribution.