Wallaby 31 players for 2015 RWC

[Gnostic]

No no, I think Izzy is just an example of a player who's preternatural skill in the air (at least in 2013) solved the issue of opposition having an easy time getting into the Wallabies half by putting up midfield bombs.

So he and Pocock are the only two examples of players who possess a skill that they are so good at it forces tactical adjustment by the opposition. I'm mulling over the others.

I think you do Skelton a dis-service there, he commits multiple tacklers. It is then up to the support runners to make the most of the holes that are created by him attracting and committing two or three tacklers. Against the Highlanders he still achieved that but the support runners were swarmed as well to prevent the offloads and slow the play.

The big problem I see in what you have as an otherwise very good premise is that this focus and reliance on individuals and their points of difference is no better than Deans' reliance on "X factor".

The Highlanders no name pack and backline beat the Tahs in all facets of play because they executed a well crafted plan to target the obvious weaknesses in the Tahs side, which had been apparent all year. I am very disappointed that the Tahs didn't evolve from last year and fix those issues. If the Wallabies don't I expect a RWC exit in the pool stages and a third or even last place in the RC. Selection will only have a small part to play in the evolution of the side, but a very important one.

For instance a big part of the Tahs inability to exit their 22 was the fact that they had no real kickers in the whole backline despite fielding two Wallaby 15s. If as has been suggested many times the Wallabies field a first choice back three of Tomane, Speight and Folau the weakness is not addressed at all. A selection of Cooper at 10 and To'omua at 12 can partially address the weakness but will require significant backline alignment changes between attack and defence and a lot of buggerising around.

Those sorts of conundrums can be argued in the second and backrows as well.

So does Chieka try to craft a side to cover some of the glaring weaknesses exposed in both the Tahs this year and the Wallabies on the EOYT, or does he say bugger it and concentrate on the Wallabies game to the exclusion of what the opposition may do?

I know what I'd like to see, but there is no kicking coach and no set piece coach at this stage.

 

[Joe Blow]

I see some still throwing around Dennis' name as a lock option. I don't see it.
He is manageable at Super level but will be seriously outgunned at test level in both the set piece and in general play.
I don't see how Dennis could be included in any 23 with several good lock options in Simmons, Skelton, Coleman, Horwill, Arnold etc and a couple of better part timers in Fardy, Jones and even McCalman.

Dennis struggled with the physicality at test level previously, and he was in the back row. Ditto for Jones in his one outing.
We need blokes who are going to bring some punch and be able to give back at least as much as they get. We need a big physical pack that will not be intimidated or take a backward step.

I'm really looking forward to seeing Sio and Coleman in the RC. Also Higgers at 8

 

[Micheal]

I see some still throwing around Dennis' name as a lock option. I don't see it.
He is manageable at Super level but will be seriously outgunned at test level in both the set piece and in general play.
I don't see how Dennis could be included in any 23 with several good lock options in Simmons, Skelton, Coleman, Horwill, Arnold etc and a couple of better part timers in Fardy, Jones and even McCalman.

Dennis struggled with the physicality at test level previously, and he was in the back row. Ditto for Jones in his one outing.
We need blokes who are going to bring some punch and be able to give back at least as much as they get. We need a big physical pack that will not be intimidated or take a backward step.

I'm really looking forward to seeing Sio and Coleman in the RC. Also Higgers at 8

Personally, Dennis' physicality is what sets him apart for me. I'm probably not too qualified to speak on Jones and McCalman as I haven't watched a huge amount of Force games this season, and I haven't really been keeping an eye out for Jones when I watch the Rebels, but atleast in terms of general play (I understand there are some reasonable reservations about his set piece work), Dennis stands out for mine. He has a huge work rate, carries decently and defends very dominantly. He has put on huge shots this year, and this physicality is something that the Tahs and presumably, the Wallabies, game plan has and will be based on moving forward.

Watch this space. He'll be in gold atleast once in the upcoming year.

 

[The_Brown_Hornet]

I've loved Dave's physical presence in general play over the last couple of seasons. I do wonder if he can translate that at test level, particularly at lock. I can't help but wonder if he'd struggle against a Retallick, AWJ, Etzebeth or Lawes in that department. I'd be picking him in the back row, but we've got some excellent options there too. Perhaps he's a lock/blindside bench option.

 

[hammertimethere]

I think you do Skelton a dis-service there, he commits multiple tacklers. It is then up to the support runners to make the most of the holes that are created by him attracting and committing two or three tacklers. Against the Highlanders he still achieved that but the support runners were swarmed as well to prevent the offloads and slow the play.

The big problem I see in what you have as an otherwise very good premise is that this focus and reliance on individuals and their points of difference is no better than Deans' reliance on "X factor".

The Highlanders no name pack and backline beat the Tahs in all facets of play because they executed a well crafted plan to target the obvious weaknesses in the Tahs side, which had been apparent all year. I am very disappointed that the Tahs didn't evolve from last year and fix those issues. If the Wallabies don't I expect a RWC exit in the pool stages and a third or even last place in the RC. Selection will only have a small part to play in the evolution of the side, but a very important one.

For instance a big part of the Tahs inability to exit their 22 was the fact that they had no real kickers in the whole backline despite fielding two Wallaby 15s. If as has been suggested many times the Wallabies field a first choice back three of Tomane, Speight and Folau the weakness is not addressed at all. A selection of Cooper at 10 and To'omua at 12 can partially address the weakness but will require significant backline alignment changes between attack and defence and a lot of buggerising around.

Those sorts of conundrums can be argued in the second and backrows as well.

So does Chieka try to craft a side to cover some of the glaring weaknesses exposed in both the Tahs this year and the Wallabies on the EOYT, or does he say bugger it and concentrate on the Wallabies game to the exclusion of what the opposition may do?

I know what I'd like to see, but there is no kicking coach and no set piece coach at this stage.

In fact if you read the first post the first name aside from the two mentioned was Skelton's for his exceptional ball running ability. I'm not sure if he's what I'd call consistently world class but he's not far off and more time and coaching should get him there.

I should clarify, I don't believe my premise is akin to an over reliance on individuals as an overriding delay ion philosophy, merely a good model to examine how to solve some selection dilemmas when they arise in particularly competitive spots. However I do think that most of the time it is not good practice to have a inflexible game plan and subsequently select the players best suited to carry it out regardless of things like team balance, form etc. such an approach is really only justifiable when
a) most candidates are in possession of similar health, form and ability
b) the coach is veritably certain they can extract the best performance from a player in worse form who offers what they are looking for over another in great form who possesses a different balance of skill set.

Generally (85% of the time) it is better to develop a flexible game plan that takes advantage the collective skills of your best available 15 players.

It's the balance of "collective skills" that interests me. I don't really want to see a team made up of PURELY hard working footy players all with general skill sets, I prefer to see players bring to the table specific skill sets to a consistently world class level (though having glaring weaknesses e.g being slow, weak tackler, lazy and unfit, poor hands are obviously not acceptable, but those are barriers to selection at lower levels than Wallaby).

 

[Beefcake]

Therein lies the key, I refer again to an earlier (50+ pages ago) point I made about selecting players who (through the consistent application of a select world class skill(s)) change the way the opposition must play against you.

Hooper may have a broader range of useful skills but in none of them is he so completely world class that he forces a re-think from the opposition. Pocock's ability over the ball is such that his mere presence in the game can often force teams to consciously apply more numbers to their attacking breakdown, which in turn makes their continuity in attack harder, which in turn may play nicely into the rush defence system the wallabies will probably employ under Grey etc. Tactically it can make such a difference in the shape of the game.

So kindly explain Hur vs Bru last nite?

Pocock is immovable once set but was easily countered and nullified last nite as Hur got him early.

The Hur tore the Bru apart, right across the park, and Bru had no answers. Unfortunately they also had little ball, and even with that they kicked away, so attacking game had little impact. Such a poor game plan and showed the contest can get away between set pieces. I dont think even Hoops could have made a difference.

So wobs campaign for the RC need penetration as a workon among other things.

 

[hammertimethere]

So kindly explain Hur vs Bru last nite?

Pocock is immovable once set but was easily countered and nullified last nite as Hur got him early.

The Hur tore the Bru apart, right across the park, and Bru had no answers. Unfortunately they also had little ball, and even with that they kicked away, so attacking game had little impact. Such a poor game plan and showed the contest can get away between set pieces. I dont think even Hoops could have made a difference.

So wobs campaign for the RC need penetration as a workon among other things.

Well you kind of explained it yourself in paragraph 2....

I agree with you on all of your points. The Brumbies did get torn apart and wallabies do need penetration. I just am not sure how your (quite salient) point is relevant to my thoughts on a paradigm for solving selection problems

 

[Intruder]

IMO 31 Man Squad: (Match Day 23)

LH Prop
1. Slipper (1)
2. Robinson (17)

Hooker
3. Moore (2)
4. Polota-Nau (16)
5. Hanson

TH Prop
6. Kepu (3)
7. Holmes (18)
8. PAE

S Row
9. Simmons (4)
10. Skelton (5)
11. Carter
12. Dennis (19)

B Flanker
13. Fardy (6)
14. McMahon

O Flanker
15. Pocock (7)
16. Hooper (20)

No 8
17. Palu (8)
18. Higginbotham

S Half
19. Phipps (9)
20. Genia (21)
21. Giteau

F Half
22. Foley (10)
23. Cooper (22)

I Center
24. To'omua (12)
25. Beale (23)

O Center
26. Kuridrani (13)
27. Ashley-Cooper (14)

Wing
28. Horne
29. Speight (11)
30. Mitchell

FB
31. Folau (15)

Few changes to the squad I picked last month;

Props:
PAE has undergone ankle surgery and will be back in time for RWC but will leave his run to late for the RWC. Giving Alexander/Faulkner a real shot at nailing down that 5th prop position. They will only take two LHP and I will still take Robinson over Sio in a very close one. Three specialist THP to board the plane.

1. Slipper
2. Robinson
3. Kepu
4. Holmes
5. Alexander

Hookers:
Simply for me it's a race for the third string position. IMO Hansen has been immense for the Reds in the back end of the season however Fainga'a was just as good during his EOYT.

6. Moore
7. TPN
8. Fainga'a

Locks:
Skelton and Simmons have already booked their seats but there will be two remaining spots to fill. Many have picked one other specialist to join and a back row type to join. IMO all players in the tight must be genuine locks for us to one have multiple line out options and two significant weight from behind at scrum time. Coleman is close to recovering from a broken toe giving him minimal weeks to train with squad, could hurt him. Carter will be one to watch for closer to the Cup but still a while away. Which has opened up a good shot for Horwill. Jones doesn't make it for mine, awesome around the field but still a lot of developing to do at line out time calling, reading options and knowledge. The one that has gone under the radar is Dean Mumm who Chieka rates really highly and IMO could surprise and nab a ticket to England with his experience not only at Test level but playing in Europes biggest arenas, should feature in the RC.

9. Simmons
10. Skelton
11. Horwill
12. Mumm

Back row:
The back row has been tough to pick due to the combinations needed in the back 5 at set piece time. However I think they will take the same stock. Previously forgot McCalman who should beat McMahon for a ticket.

13. Fardy
14. Higginbotham
15. Pocock
16. Hooper
17. Palu
18. McCalman

Scrum half:
No brainer should only take the two specialist with Guiteu as third option.

19. Genia
20. Phipps

Fly half:
Also a no brainer. Cooper will definitely be there as Chieka believes he will play an integral part of the squad. His injury cloud isn't as bad as people have thought. He will be good for the SA test match.

21. Foley
22. Cooper

Centre:
IMO this position is a no brainer. Samu Kerevi has had a breakout year but his defence and actual tackle technique is poor. That's not a blight on the kid he will definitely make his debut in the near future but his just not ready yet. However the wildcard for me is Lilo. Has been very solid with the absence of To'omua but will be next in line if any injury occurs. I also think AAC (Adam Ashley-Cooper) will spend time in the centres to give Kuridrani a rest during the competition. Will not be surprised to see Israel up at 13 late in games if they are chasing points.

23. To'omua
24. Kuridrani
25. Beale
26. Giteau

Back Three:
One big performances from Tomane has shot him straight up the list and could possibly have played himself into a gold jersey. He will fight that out with Horne. Speight IMO could have effected his starting spot with his suspension but will be boarding the plane.

27. AAC (Adam Ashley-Cooper)
28. Tomane
29. Speight
30. Mitchell
31. Folau

If the availability of Mitchell & Giteau for the Rugby Championship was declined for some reason I would expect Chieka to select Nic White as third choice halfback & Karmicheal Hunt to fill the back three void if needed with the two options below to jump into the squad first.
However, if available The remaining 4 players to get the call up into the squad should be;

32. Sio
33. Dennis
34. Horne
35. JOC (James O'Connor)

 

[Beefcake]

Well you kind of explained it yourself in paragraph 2..

I agree with you on all of your points. The Brumbies did get torn apart and wallabies do need penetration. I just am not sure how your (quite salient) point is relevant to my thoughts on a paradigm for solving selection problems

I suppose the notion of 'world class' is subjective, to time, place, game plan, team, skillset etc.

The fact Pocock was nullified in his 'world class' area of strength in rucks, that he offered little else (understanding he is a well-rounded player), as opposed to Hoops, whose running game is 'world class - for an openside' still better than many of the frontline wobs players, and yet is still competitive at the ruck.

So if looking at the Bru v Hur game, the Bru lacked (the ball) attacking penetration in order to get momentum, so at the very minimum, you know Hoops has a running game that is positive in both loose and tight games. In Hig vs War, he still offered alot despite the team being outthought. Whereas Pocock ruck game is positive only if the forward pack are dominating or the games are tight. As Bru were outgunned, Pocock influence on the game was therefore limited.

Hoops starts for me, in attacking orientated games. Although easily convinced if Pocock starts to secure ball. Pocock starts for tight games, although happy to see Hoops, cause running and linking abilities.

Selections must be horses for course criteria - subject to game plan, combinations and some form, rather than picking best in each position.

Honestly I dont think any in the wobs is worldclass, have many excellent players (with potential Folau, Kudrani, Skelton for example) but to get to the next tier, you gotta have something special. I haven't seen it, but thats me.

 

[hammertimethere]

I suppose the notion of 'world class' is subjective, to time, place, game plan, team, skillset etc.

The fact Pocock was nullified in his 'world class' area of strength in rucks, that he offered little else (understanding he is a well-rounded player), as opposed to Hoops, whose running game is 'world class - for an openside' still better than many of the frontline wobs players, and yet is still competitive at the ruck.

So if looking at the Bru v Hur game, the Bru lacked (the ball) attacking penetration in order to get momentum, so at the very minimum, you know Hoops has a running game that is positive in both loose and tight games. In Hig vs War, he still offered alot despite the team being outthought. Whereas Pocock ruck game is positive only if the forward pack are dominating or the games are tight. As Bru were outgunned, Pocock influence on the game was therefore limited.

Hoops starts for me, in attacking orientated games. Although easily convinced if Pocock starts to secure ball. Pocock starts for tight games, although happy to see Hoops, cause running and linking abilities.

Selections must be horses for course criteria - subject to game plan, combinations and some form, rather than picking best in each position.

Honestly I dont think any in the wobs is worldclass, have many excellent players (with potential Folau, Kudrani, Skelton for example) but to get to the next tier, you gotta have something special. I haven't seen it, but thats me.

Excellent point, you're exactly right.

I think it is close to given that most of our RWC games will be tight therefore mostly I would have Pocock starting. I think it's a necessity to have both in the 23 however and I do think that playing a 6-2 bench is the big games is something we will probably have to look at and luckily having the flexibility of guys like To'omua, AAC (Adam Ashley-Cooper), Horne and Foley (as well as JOC (James O'Connor) and KB (Kurtley Beale) if you are so inclined) allows us to do that

 

[Slim 293]

They will only take two LHP and I will still take Robinson over Sio in a very close one. Three specialist THP to board the plane.

Sio has Robinson well beaten in scrummaging and general play........

Slipper and Sio should be the two LH props...........

Robinson will be fighting it out with Smith, Alexander etc for the 5th spot.

 

[Dave Beat]

So kindly explain Hur vs Bru last nite?

Pocock is immovable once set but was easily countered and nullified last nite as Hur got him early.

The Hur tore the Bru apart, right across the park, and Bru had no answers. Unfortunately they also had little ball, and even with that they kicked away, so attacking game had little impact. Such a poor game plan and showed the contest can get away between set pieces. I dont think even Hoops could have made a difference.

So wobs campaign for the RC need penetration as a workon among other things.

Seen quite a few games at a number of levels where we have been blown off the ball, momentum built against us, and never regained. The only real go forward was a kick that provides the opposition the ball and we defend.

Even with Pocock out there, if the opposing team is running planned channels and dominating the go forward with players in support, or clearing out - & DOING IT WELL we need to arrest the momentum.

As on Saturday, players need to defend, and as seen when defending on the back foot it usually has the defender standing up because its hard to have low body height when you are going backwards.
Thus if the ball player isn't immediately grassed the D line is bent, multiple players are required - space created - points scored.

You can have the best backs in the world in your side, but it is about momentum.
You can have the biggest ugliest forward back in the world, but they need to get momentum.

As said above I've seen this tactic used above quite a bit recently - if i could make a suggestion, pull out a couple of reruns of the Reds 2011 season. I recall they were very very good at;
> making sure the first tackler grasses the ball carrier and that reduced the momentum.
> then ensuring there are always 2 players in over the ball and this forces the opposing team to contribute players and reduced the number of players standing off to attack / continue the go forward.
> next player hitting it up gets grassed again, and they often ended up attacking in D with this model.

I want Cheika that selects the team to execute the game plan, to take the points. At least at the Tah's game we struggled to shift the momentum in our favor.

 

[fatprop]

Sio has Robinson well beaten in scrummaging and general play....

Slipper and Sio should be the two LH props.....

Robinson will be fighting it out with Smith, Alexander etc for the 5th spot.

Sio's real challenge is that he hasn't aimed up so far in test rugby, but he will get his chance again in the RC.

 

[Dave Beat]

Honestly I don't think any in the wobs is worldclass, have many excellent players (with potential Folau, Kudrani, Skelton for example) but to get to the next tier, you gotta have something special. I haven't seen it, but thats me.

All depends on game, plan, and attitude. Many would have said the Tah's were favorites on Saturday night. Possibly because some of the players were thought to be better, I know I heard people refer to the Highlanders as a team of no names - BUT - these no names, turned up with a game plan, arrested momentum and 5 tries to 1 is a comprehensive win.

I think we have the players to give the RWC a serious dent, but we need to look at games like Saturday night and look at ways of shifting momentum.

Maybe it is doing things differently???
Up until 99 most teams kicked off, or kicked the 22 with the forwards to the left or right, kick was often short with the forwards stacked in the 5 meter train tracks - remember those days?
I recall Rod Macqueen saying;
why set up and showcase where the ball is going so they can prepare.
another one, he had us watching the Haka in our tracksuits so the AB's could then watch us get changed after the Haka.

I'll throw one out there - short line outs, doing these well, and and working out subsequent attacking plays????? - Gee Skelts my not even be in the line out, his involvement may come in at 4th phase. Just thinking outside the box that's all.

 

[Scrubber2050]

Benn Robinson was one of the best on the field last night.

Certainly was in the top 2 LHP's

 

[Train Without a Station]

Dave as I noted on the locks thread, short line outs are not a great solution. The benefit of a line out is it locks 8 players into the 15m channel and gives the remain 7 (or 6 if you exclude the halfback) up to around 50m width to attack in a 1 on 1 of better attacking situation.

Short line out cramp the space, which means there is less distance between each defender and therefore is less difficult to defend.

For a crash ball to set up quick ball a short line out is great, but it's not the most effective use of an excellent attacking situation.

 

[fatprop]

Certainly was in the top 2 LHP's

The surprising thing about fatcat is that despite apparently being overweight, slow and no longer up to it, he is playing long minutes every week and rarely being out scrummaged over a match



Typos by SwiftKey, errors in tone by me

 

[Gillys_ghost]

So it's kepu who's being out-scrummaged? The Tahs scrum has been awful the past few weeks and whilst it's unfair to lay all the blame on the props, they do play a big role in it.

 

[Langthorne]

Hopefully, we'll get a chance to see a few of these potential combinations in the RC, because Chieka needs to try things out (finding the best combination and being prepared for situations where the first choice isn't an option), and the work load needs to be shared so we have a fit and fresh squad for the RWC.

I think the Wallabies need to be able to pressure the opposition all the time - strong defence, defensive lineout, tactical kick and chase (I want to see Folau chasing and contesting high balls into the opposition half from time to time), variations at kickoff....and try to include some of the once successful Waratah tactics (which also pressure the opposition defence).

 

[cyclopath]

So it's kepu who's being out-scrummaged? The Tahs scrum has been awful the past few weeks and whilst it's unfair to lay all the blame on the props, they do play a big role in it.

It wasn't "awful" on the weekend - both packs had some wins and a few came down. Highlanders have been a good scrummaging unit. Were all these down to the Waratahs pack, in particular Robinson or Kepu? I don't know, and I suspect no-one else really does.