Wallabies v Pumas - Saturday 17 September, nib Stadium Perth

[Train Without a Station]

Sorry I'm a little late to the goal kicking discussion. But I have some points I think need to be weighed in on.

Dating back to the start of 2014, Foley and Quade kick within about 1 or 2 percent of each other.

Take out kicks for goal (where there is no alternative option) and Foley's percentage increases meaning penalties prop up his average. Do the same for Cooper and his decreases, meaning penalty attempts are dragging his down.

As for Pfitzy's comment. No, it's not where the team infringes. It's where the Waratahs and Wallabies opt to kick from a penalty. Foley's range is shorter, thus closer to goal than Cooper, he either doesn't attempt, or passes the shot off to somebody else. Was Beale for the Waratahs and Hodge for the Wallabies now.

Baa Baa. Yes. He's kicked high pressure shots. As long as they are around the 40m mark and not outside the 15m mark. He's not kicking them from 50 or the sideline like O'Conner in SOO for the win.

Lindommer. No, it wasn't 48m for the 2014 Super Rugby final. At 0:42 in the link below you can see that the ball is 43-44m max from the goals. It goes over and is caught about 1m behind the goal line. Absolute max of his range.

KOB, it's no point talking about a brief period where Foley kicked really well, because over a brief period you can lots of easy shots. Over time it all averages out though. Mike Harris kicked 100% over about half a Super Rugby season (I think it was over 32 consecutive successful shots). Should we call him up?

Cooper's reputation took a hit in one game, where he kicked around half of his attempts outside the 15m lines. During the RWC until the QF's Foley had attempted only one or two shots from the same width, thus on a head to head basis making him look vastly inferior. But like most stats, over time they even out.

Am I saying Cooper is a better goal kicker? Nope. I'm just saying that statistically Foley is not materially better, and his reputation as being better is anecdotal evidence of "pressure" kicks which were kicks that decent kickers should kick 100% of the time.

I don't mind Foley kicking as I believe he's no worse than any other option. But I don't see how his kicking should keep him in the side if he's considered inferior around the ground to alternatives.

 

[KOB1987]

^^^^ good analysis that.

For the record I wasn't suggesting Foley should be selected for his goal kicking. I was trying to find evidence supporting Seb's claim that he kicks at around 70%, from what I could find it's about 80%, maybe a point or 2 lower. The only mention I made of a short time frame was that you'd probably be able to find a statistically significant (say >10 kicks) period where he kicked at 70% or lower if you looked hard enough.

 

[Train Without a Station]

KOB,

Just to elaborate I've taken all the data I have available.

This is:

Quade's 2013 season (I don't think Foley kicked as much in 2013 and don't have his data).
2014 Super Rugby Season
2014 Rugby Championship
2015 Super Rugby Season
2015 Rugby Championship
2015 Rugby World Cup
2016 Super Rugby Season
2016 Rugby Championship

Unfortunately the Vodacom Rugby App doesn't have the following:
2014 EOYT
June Tests
3rd Bledisloe's
USA Test 2015

As a result it's too difficult to go back and find the details of missed attempts as ESPN doesn't keep those and it took an eternity for me to do that for Quade's 2013 games when I did it.

Anyway, what this selection of data tells me is:

Quade conversion kicks at 75%
Penalty kicks at 68%
Goal kicks at 72%

Foley conversion kicks at 73%
Penalty kicks at 78%
Goal kicks at 75%

So it's 3% difference on the data I can find. Based on the quantity, I'd say the listed games I missed of Foley's and any other times Quade may have kicked, it's likely going to be at a similar range.

 

[Lee Enfield]

"Or cooper/kerevi/kuridrani
Or cooper/Beale/kerevi
Or cooper/kerevi/folau with hodge at FB.
All would be preferable to the current combination.
I'd make minimal changes for the Pumas/ Boks but I'd love to see Cheika think outside the box for the next ABs game. We know his selections failed in the first 2 games and we've lost the Bledisloe. It's the perfect game to give it a red hot crack with plan B. "

Most of those combinations could also work effectively, though I don't think Cooper/Beale at 10 and 12 would be a success.

 

[Joe Blow]

"Or cooper/kerevi/kuridrani
Or cooper/Beale/kerevi
Or cooper/kerevi/folau with hodge at FB.
All would be preferable to the current combination.
I'd make minimal changes for the Pumas/ Boks but I'd love to see Cheika think outside the box for the next ABs game. We know his selections failed in the first 2 games and we've lost the Bledisloe. It's the perfect game to give it a red hot crack with plan B. "

Most of those combinations could also work effectively, though I don't think Cooper/Beale at 10 and 12 would be a success.

So you are an advocate of Kerevi at 12 Lee?

 

[Viking]

^^^^ good analysis that.

For the record I wasn't suggesting Foley should be selected for his goal kicking. I was trying to find evidence supporting Seb's claim that he kicks at around 70%, from what I could find it's about 80%, maybe a point or 2 lower. The only mention I made of a short time frame was that you'd probably be able to find a statistically significant (say >10 kicks) period where he kicked at 70% or lower if you looked hard enough.

For the record when i say 70% kicker, I mean the range of 70-79%, which is not a good enough standard IMO for test level.

You want an 80% kicker, in the range 80-89%. I don't think it's unreasonable to suggest most international kickers should kick in this range.

A 90% kicker (90-99%) is just a freak, and unreasonable to suggest an international kicker should be this good - but it would be bloody nice but would only come along once in a generation.

 

[KOB1987]

For the record when i say 70% kicker, I mean the range of 70-79%, which is not a good enough standard IMO for test level.

You want an 80% kicker, in the range 80-89%. I don't think it's unreasonable to suggest most international kickers should kick in this range.

A 90% kicker (90-99%) is just a freak, and unreasonable to suggest an international kicker should be this good - but it would be bloody nice but would only come along once in a generation.

I don't dispute any of that but I call a 70% kicker a 7/10 kicker and a 79% kicker an 8/10 kicker!

Anyway, it turns out he's about in the middle and there's nothing suggesting Quade is better so differentiating them on their kicking alone is a moot point.

 

[Viking]

Well I don't think Douglas is playing to the level most of us expected. He;'s had several games now after returning from injury.

At his best he would be one of the first forwards picked.

Does he ever call lineouts ??????

I agree. Douglas is a hard one, because for how long he was out injured for, in my opinion is actually playing pretty well.

However that is still pretty far off where we want him to be. Fitness is still off for me. Still a better prospect then the alternatives Simmons/Carter - as Douglas has had one or two great games in the past (although this is not as many as suggested by most posters) - but that is still more then Simmons/Carter.

He should be 100% by the international season next year and currently isn't the worst player on the field - at least he has an excuse (what's the front row's excuse for their poor work-rate?)

 

[Viking]

I don't dispute any of that but I call a 70% kicker a 7/10 kicker and a 79% kicker an 8/10 kicker!

Anyway, it turns out he's about in the middle and there's nothing suggesting Quade is better so differentiating them on their kicking alone is a moot point.

Agree. But that backs my original point there is no need to keep Foley in the team for his goal-kicking ability as all the data suggest's Quade isn't much worse - goal-kicking simply shouldn't be a factor in selection - or at least not a primary one. (when it comes to Foley / Quade )

Plus Hodge is another option.

TWAS' post sums it up beautifully.

 

[Lee Enfield]

I think that's pretty ridiculous actually. Calling the bloke a 'one hit wonder'?? Please.

Let's start with the fact he got the Tahs to a Super final, and played a key role in the victory.

And then he got the Wallabies to a World Cup final, playing high quality, error-free rugby along the way. The notion that he only had one good game is completely misguided. He was good against Wales, he kicked us to a victory against Scotland, he played really well against the Argies, too (that pass to set up AAC (Adam Ashley-Cooper)'s try is what dreams are made of).

He hasn't been at his best this year, but that shouldn't detract from his past achievements.

I would say Beale was the most important factor in the Tahs performance in 2014, not Foley.

I disagree he played high quality error free rugby, he made plenty of errors, but those errors just get conveniently glossed over.

The England game was the only game he played good, and that game was excellent. We needed him to kick us to victory against Wales because our chief playmaker and general, Foley, couldn't orchestrate a try. He has moments of great play, but they are not the normal and when he is at 10, the Wallabies generally look lost in attack.

His past achievements show an average 10 with limited ability to orchestrate a team attack and who requires an actual playmaker at 12 to spark a team attack. Foley has moments of individual brilliance with the ball in hand running himself, but he is limited in his ability to be the pivot and focal point of attack.

I actually expect the Cooper/Foley combination to develop into something useful and serviceable, but it will not be the best combination for the Wallabies. If Cheika is going to play Foley in the starting team and midfield, then I think he should be 13 and Kerevi 12. He is already out of position at 12, and the Kerevi/Foley combination could work in a similar manner to Nonu/Smith.

 

[Lee Enfield]

So you are an advocate of Kerevi at 12 Lee?

Broadly speaking yes, but I think it comes down to where he plays for the Reds. But it would be interesting seeing how 12 Hodge 13 Kerevi goes.

 

[Viking]

I would say Beale was the most important factor in the Tahs performance in 2014, not Foley.

I disagree he played high quality error free rugby, he made plenty of errors, but those errors just get conveniently glossed over.

The England game was the only game he played good, and that game was excellent. We needed him to kick us to victory against Wales because our chief playmaker and general, Foley, couldn't orchestrate a try. He has moments of great play, but they are not the normal and when he is at 10, the Wallabies generally look lost in attack.

His past achievements show an average 10 with limited ability to orchestrate a team attack and who requires an actual playmaker at 12 to spark a team attack. Foley has moments of individual brilliance with the ball in hand running himself, but he is limited in his ability to be the pivot and focal point of attack.

I actually expect the Cooper/Foley combination to develop into something useful and serviceable, but it will not be the best combination for the Wallabies. If Cheika is going to play Foley in the starting team and midfield, then I think he should be 13 and Kerevi 12. He is already out of position at 12, and the Kerevi/Foley combination could work in a similar manner to Nonu/Smith.

I agree with your overall assessment of Foley, his best games he has heavily relied on Beale for the playmaking.

And his error rate is always glossed over.

Disagree with moving him to 13 though. Foley really isn't anything like Smith. Foley is a selfish minded player as his first instinct is to run. Smith was never like this. Not that this is a bad thing, what Foley is good at is running and he is miles better then Smith at running into holes.

Defence they are on completely different levels too. So long-term 13 Foley really isn't fitting the mould.

Foley does fit a Horan style 12, primary runner and support player. Secondary distributor. I think this will take time to develop though, and it would be quicker to simply develop Hodge at 12, or better yet, Kerevi who offers that Nonu style.

But if your looking for a C.Smith style 13 to team up with Kerevi then I think Godwin or Hodge would be better long-term 13 options.

 

[Scrubber2050]

What time is the team announced ?

 

[Pfitzy]

What time is the team announced ?

Yes, please! We need something else to talk about.

 

[Lee Enfield]

Disagree with moving him to 13 though. Foley really isn't anything like Smith. Foley is a selfish minded player as his first instinct is to run. Smith was never like this. Not that this is a bad thing, what Foley is good at is running and he is miles better then Smith at running into holes.

Defence they are on completely different levels too. So long-term 13 Foley really isn't fitting the mould.

Foley does fit a Horan style 12, primary runner and support player. Secondary distributor. I think this will take time to develop though, and it would be quicker to simply develop Hodge at 12, or better yet, Kerevi who offers that Nonu style.

But if your looking for a C.Smith style 13 to team up with Kerevi then I think Godwin or Hodge would be better long-term 13 options.

I agree with your points. I am only looking at Foley in this position cause Cheika seems hell bent on selecting him. At this point I think Kerevi at 12 and Hodge at 13 looks like it could develop into an excellent combination but I honestly can't see Cheika trying Kerevi/Hodge anytime soon. Long term Foley should be a bench option and injury cover.

If Cheika is going to continue to pick Foley, it should be at 13 so Kerevi can develop at international level as a 12. I think Foley would be a player who could take advantage of the holes and space Kerevi creates and he could also take advantage of Coopers passing game with his line running. He is pretty darn quick and if put into space, is more than likely to go all the way.

As for defence, he defends on the wing, so no change needed. Hodge can defend at 13 whilst Cheika is selecting him on the wing.

 

[KOB1987]

I don't mind what Cheika is doing with Cooper-Foley while we don't have a standout contender for the 12 jersey. From a longer term perspective, having them share the role of first receiver allows an objective comparison of the two players for that responsibility in the future. Foley is a bit down on form but he is generally consistent and goes through waves of good and bad form, whereas Quade is much more hit and miss from test to test. And although he isn't wearing the 12 on his back, we are getting a look at Kerevi being used as 2nd receiver through the attacking structure, also Folau at 13.

 

[tragic]

I don't mind what Cheika is doing with Cooper-Foley while we don't have a standout contender for the 12 jersey. From a longer term perspective, having them share the role of first receiver allows an objective comparison of the two players for that responsibility in the future. Foley is a bit down on form but he is generally consistent and goes through waves of good and bad form, whereas Quade is much more hit and miss from test to test. And although he isn't wearing the 12 on his back, we are getting a look at Kerevi being used as 2nd receiver through the attacking structure, also Folau at 13.

Agree.
And the attack looks much more potent when they work that way.
Which begs the question why not just bite the bullet and put the numbers on their backs.

 

[RugbyReg]

Yes, please! We need something else to talk about.

perhaps not until 4pm our time, which kinda sucks.

 

[Pfitzy]

I'm liking that, Reg, but I'm not liking it.

 

[Pfitzy]

1. Scott Sio (21 Tests)
2. Stephen Moore (c) (108 Tests)
3. Sekope Kepu (69 Tests)
4. Rob Simmons (63 Tests)
5. Adam Coleman (3 Tests)
6. Dean Mumm (49 Tests)
7. Michael Hooper (57 Tests)
8. David Pocock (59 Tests)
9. Will Genia (69 Tests)
10. Quade Cooper (60 Tests)
11. Reece Hodge (2 Tests)
12. Bernard Foley (33 Tests)
13. Samu Kerevi (4 Tests)
14. Dane Haylett-Petty (6 Tests)
15. Israel Folau (44 Tests)
RESERVES

(one to be omitted)
Tatafu Polota-Nau (67 Tests)
James Slipper (80 Tests)
Tom Robertson*
Rory Arnold (3 Tests)
Lopeti Timani*
Sean McMahon (10 Tests)
Nick Phipps (44 Tests)
Tevita Kuridrani (37 Tests)
Henry Speight (5 Tests)