Wallabies v All Blacks, Saturday 19th August, ANZ Stadium Sydney

[Braveheart81]

Always worth remembering whether a forward is starting or finishing is usually an argument over 5 to 10 minutes of playing time

It's generally a bit more than that. Some of the front rowers normally get replaced first and at 45 minutes that's a 10 minute gap in playing time.

If you replace a lock at 50 minutes that's 20 minutes (I would predict the plan would be to take Arnold off and bring Rodda on).

If McMahon is on the bench he'd most likely replace Timani at the 50-60 minute mark.

Personally I'd be starting McMahon at 6 and then moving him to 8 when Timani is cooked.

If the lineout is struggling Hanigan can come on a bit earlier for Timani.

 

[TOCC]

I just hope Cheika entertains the concept of moving Folau to the wing, the bloke is and can be a great winger, but he isn't a great fullback, his passing skills(or lack of) limit the Wallabies on attack/counter-attack and despite what people say, his kicking compared to other test fullbacks is poor. All his strengths like ability under the highball and strength in contact are still equally as applicable on the wing.

Genia, Foley, Folau, Meakes, Kerevi, Speight, DHP

I don't like Beale in the centres, defensively the Wallabies need some starch in their back. Wallabies won't win the game by a defensive game plan, but they won't win by letting the All Blacks rack up 50. For that same reason i would consider Kuridrani a better option at 13 instead of Kerevi. If Cheika is intent on Beale, then play him at 15.

 

[wamberal]

If the lineout is struggling Hanigan can come on a bit earlier for Timani.

There's no "if" about it. The Darkness would absolutely slaughter us if we have only two lineout options, up against their four.

 

[Braveheart81]

There's no "if" about it. The Darkness would absolutely slaughter us if we have only two lineout options, up against their four.

We would have two good lineout options and a couple of passable options versus three good options and one passable option (Kaino).

As we don't have a player who excels at everything we have to compromise.

McMahon and Timani are going to be the better 6 and 8 options around the park, particularly in adding physicality and mongrel.

Hanigan is going to be a better lineout option.

 

[Brumbieman]

If Cheika rolls out a midfield of Beale and Kerevi, I probably wouldn't bother watching.

 

[upthereds#!]

Mcmahon for Bench, always had his best moments when he can tear through tired bodies. Up close, in tight against fresh Kaino and Read? Need a big body in Timani. Mainly the reason I don't think Hanigan should be starting 6 - but need the lineout option and Mcmahon could reaaaaallly take advantage of any opportunities late in the game with fresh legs, whereas Hanigan wouldn't without the speed and power.

 

[Brumby Runner]

I actually find this ad really refreshing to some of the ones from the past. Usually its some deep voice going "this year is our year" and so on and it makes even a loyal fan cringe (maybe especially a loyal fan unsure at this point). So its nice to have an ad that kind of goes to the core of a team sport in fighting for an extra inch for the blokes beside you.

A big challenge in this game for the Wallabies will be scrum stability at LHP. It was a clear weakness for us in June.

You would assume Sio will start and the bench option will be Faulkner or Robertson.

I don't think there is much difference between any of the options currently and they will all have to improve on where they were at in June.

I assume TPN will start and it seems clear that Timani is starting at 8 from the media yesterday. Sio and Ala'alatoa will be the starting props, Coleman and Arnold the locks and Hooper at 7.

Hanigan or McMahon at 6 but it does sound like Hanigan may retain that spot with McMahon on the bench (I'd start McMahon).

I think the backline will be Genia, Foley, DHP, Beale, Kerevi, Speight, Folau.

I'd imagine Moore will be on the bench with Kepu, Rodda will be the reserve lock, McMahon (or Hanigan) the reserve backrower. Phipps, Hodge and Meakes/Kuridrani/Rona to round out the 23.

It sounds like Rona has spent a fair bit of time training on the wing so perhaps he is a decent chance at the 23 jersey.

I am not a fan of Hanigan at this stage, but I think he will start over McMahon just for his lineout work. I really don't like the look of 10, 12, 13 being Foley, Beale and Kerevi. That is just too weak in defense. I can see Cheika going that way in his search for "X Factor" but I'd prefer Foley, Meakes, Kuridrani. TK, for all his detractors, will almost always get over the gain line, which will be very important for the Wallabies' attack and his point of difference over Kerevi is in defense. Meakes/Kuridrani won't leak line breaks whereas Beale/Kerevi will be a sieve.

I reckon the backrow bench spot will be Dempsey. Can't have a Cheika favourite missing out altogether.

 

[Brumby Runner]

It's generally a bit more than that. Some of the front rowers normally get replaced first and at 45 minutes that's a 10 minute gap in playing time.

If you replace a lock at 50 minutes that's 20 minutes (I would predict the plan would be to take Arnold off and bring Rodda on).

If McMahon is on the bench he'd most likely replace Timani at the 50-60 minute mark.

Personally I'd be starting McMahon at 6 and then moving him to 8 when Timani is cooked.

If the lineout is struggling Hanigan can come on a bit earlier for Timani.

Jesus, BH, that's another very undersized backrow. Hope Cheika at least has learnt a lesson about balance in the backrow.

 

[Brumby Runner]

Mcmahon for Bench, always had his best moments when he can tear through tired bodies. Up close, in tight against fresh Kaino and Read? Need a big body in Timani. Mainly the reason I don't think Hanigan should be starting 6 - but need the lineout option and Mcmahon could reaaaaallly take advantage of any opportunities late in the game with fresh legs, whereas Hanigan wouldn't without the speed and power.

Similar to the way the ABs play Ardie Savea.

 

[TOCC]

Wallabies need more then 2 lineout options, especially if TPN is throwing.. we have no chance in hell of getting out of our own half if Cheika plays Folau at fullback and only 2 lineout options.

 

[Braveheart81]

Jesus, BH, that's another very undersized backrow. Hope Cheika at least has learnt a lesson about balance in the backrow.

I think the most likely backrow is Hanigan, Hooper and Timani.

Personally I would take the punt and start McMahon at 6. It's smaller but certainly more physical.

In the backrow of Hanigan, Hooper and Timani, the most likely replacement is for McMahon to come on at about the 50 minute mark for Timani.

I think Cheika will and should pick a midfield of Beale and Kerevi. They have to defend well though.

I don't think Meakes and Kuridrani provide an impenetrable defensive combination that makes them such a compelling option for selection.

 

[Braveheart81]

Here's my predicted 23.

Sio
TPN
Ala'alatoa
Arnold
Coleman
Hanigan
Hooper
Timani
Genia
Foley
DHP
Beale
Kerevi
Speight
Folau

Moore, Robertson, Kepu, Rodda, McMahon, Phipps, Hodge, Rona

 

[dru]

Here's my predicted 23.

Genia
Foley
DHP
Beale
Kerevi
Speight
Folau

So after we have the numbers on their backs, the question where they move to in D. Something like:

Folau to Wing
DHP to FB
Beale to Wing
Speight to 12/13
Kerevi asked to stand his slot.

It's a waltz. Or a poorly choreographed shemozzle. Take your pick.

 

[Braveheart81]

We'll find out the defensive alignment on first phase play on Saturday night.

 

[Scrubber2050]

Always worth remembering whether a forward is starting or finishing is usually an argument over 5 to 10 minutes of playing time

Big difference mentally riding the pine or starting. Quite often your 5-10 min differential statement is laughable

 

[Scrubber2050]

We'll find out the defensive alignment on first phase play on Saturday night.

That's your Tahs mate Nathan's job isn't it.

Fuck me I hope the boys hold 'em tryless through the backs with Nathan's strategies in full swing and then we also smoke 'em in the piggies (our 7 against their 8).

I'm starting to become confident (after reading my own post) so Wallabies by7 15.

 

[Braveheart81]

then we also smoke 'em in the piggies (our 7 against their 8).
.

If only Hooper makes a few tackles, runs and ruck involvements so we are playing with 8 forwards we'll be a sure thing huh?

 

[Micheal]

If only Hooper makes a few tackles, runs and ruck involvements so we are playing with 8 forwards we'll be a sure thing huh?

What if he tops the tackles, runs and ruck involvements for the Wallabies like he normally does?!

Will this be the end of New Zealand rugby as we know it?

 

[Braveheart81]

What if he tops the tackles, runs and ruck involvements for the Wallabies like he normally does?!

That's precisely when Scrubber says he's not playing as part of the pack and just doing that to make his stats look good.

 

[fatprop]

What if he tops the tackles, runs and ruck involvements for the Wallabies like he normally does?!

Not possible, you are living in a fantasy world, he is not even a proper backrower!