Wallabies 2025

[Derpus]

What’s happened to Noahs kicking?

 

[Strewthcobber]

What’s happened to Noahs kicking?

It's a pretty small sample. There's only 5 kicks between where he is and 80%+

Lonergan and Meredith are also under 70%. Are the Brumbies scoring their tries wider out than usual?

 

[upthereds#!]

I'd take:

Halfbacks - Gordon, McDermott, Lonergan
Flyhalves - Lolesio, Lynagh, Donaldson, O'Connor
Centres - Ikitau, Kerevi, Paisami
Outside Backs - Kellaway, Wright, Daungunu, Potter, Jorgensen, Pietsch, JAS

Is that the same as mine except Lonergan for White?

 

[Major Tom]

It's a pretty small sample. There's only 5 kicks between where he is and 80%+

Lonergan and Meredith are also under 70%. Are the Brumbies scoring their tries wider out than usual?

Wouldn't that make Lynagh's kicking better? QLD have rejected all easy penalties and instead kicked to the corner for the maul. So, wouldn't a lot of his goals come from 10m where the rolling maul scores?

 

[Strewthcobber]

Wouldn't that make Lynagh's kicking better? QLD have rejected all easy penalties and instead kicked to the corner for the maul. So, wouldn't a lot of his goals come from 10m where the rolling maul scores?

I don't know? Lynagh's kicking has been excellent.

Players (at least in the past) usually had a worse percentage kicking penalties than they did conversions, but Lolesio only kicked 4 this year.

The Reds have a mathematician involved, and maybe his findings are influencing the whole comp?

 

[Wilson]

I don't know? Lynagh's kicking has been excellent.

Players usually have a worse percentage kicking penalties than they do conversions, but Lolesio only kicked 4 this year

My understanding is that it's usually the other way around, with the exception of long range specialists. I believe that was the case for last year's conversion vs penalties (part of why Lynagh's accuracy was so low - he only took 4 penalties). Teams take penalties that expect to kick most of the time, where as you don't have much choice about the conversions. If Lolesio has only taken 4 penalties that would help explain a drop in accuracy this year.

 

[Major Tom]

My understanding is that it's usually the other way around, with the exception of long range specialists. I believe that was the case for last year's conversion vs penalties (part of why Lynagh's accuracy was so low - he only took 4 penalties). Teams take penalties that expect to kick most of the time, where as you don't have much choice about the conversions. If Lolesio has only taken 4 penalties that would help explain a drop in accuracy this year.

Yeah, I thought the same. Lynagh makes some tough shots like regulation.

 

[Strewthcobber]

My understanding is that it's usually the other way around, with the exception of long range specialists. I believe that was the case for last year's conversion vs penalties (part of why Lynagh's accuracy was so low - he only took 4 penalties). Teams take penalties that expect to kick most of the time, where as you don't have much choice about the conversions. If Lolesio has only taken 4 penalties that would help explain a drop in accuracy this year.

At 2023 World Cup about 25% of conversions were missed, and about 34% of penalties.

This number will be changing as teams take far fewer penalty goal attempts than they used to, especially the hard ones.

 

[Strewthcobber]

If Lolesio has only taken 4 penalties that would help explain a drop in accuracy this year.

Lolesio kicked 41/49 conversions only last year and 18/29 this year

Lynagh was 19/30 last year and 34/39 this year for conversions. He kicked 7/9 penalties last year so they actually improved his overall success rate

 

[The Ghost of Raelene]

Wouldn't that make Lynagh's kicking better? QLD have rejected all easy penalties and instead kicked to the corner for the maul. So, wouldn't a lot of his goals come from 10m where the rolling maul scores?

At least he knows where to practice. Worn out spot on spots at Ballymore?

Huge deal to have a kicker above 75%. It makes teams hesitate in Defence and slow them down. No doubt you can retain possession easier as well as you fear the penalty that bit more.

 

[Wilson]

At 2023 World Cup about 25% of conversions were missed, and about 34% of penalties.

This number will be changing as teams take far fewer penalty goal attempts than they used to, especially the hard ones.

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I don't know that the world cup is a sample reflective of super rugby. Test match, knock out (including half the pool games) decision making is very different from a weekly competition.

I'll have to dig up the stats but if I remember correctly all the 1st choice the Australian kickers had a better record on penalties than conversions in super rugby last year.

 

[Strewthcobber]

I don't know that the world cup is a sample reflective of super rugby. Test match, knock out (including half the pool games) decision making is very different from a weekly competition.

I'll have to dig up the stats but if I remember correctly all the 1st choice the Australian kickers had a better record on penalties than conversions in super rugby last year.

I'm not doubting you. It kind of doesn't matter anyway given how few penalties are attempted these days, at least at Super Rugby level. None of the historical records matter very much

Apparently penalty attempts are at 2.1 per game, down from 11 in 2011.

 

[Wilson]

I'm not doubting you. It kind of doesn't matter anyway given how few penalties are attempted these days, at least at Super Rugby level. None of the historical records matter very much

Apparently penalty attempts are at 2.1 per game, down from 11 in 2011.

I just wish we still had the old goalkickers site that was doing stats out of South Africa. They used to grade all shots on difficulty (both field position and game situation) and rank kickers based on that, rather than just a straight percentage. Whether or not you agreed with their system they also had all that data there for you to go through whenever you wanted.

 

[Major Tom]

I just wish we still had the old goalkickers site that was doing stats out of South Africa. They used to grade all shots on difficulty (both field position and game situation) and rank kickers based on that, rather than just a straight percentage. Whether or not you agreed with their system they also had all that data there for you to go through whenever you wanted.

That's smart. Champion Data in AFL ranks kicking difficulty. It also judges goal kickers on expected score. Would love this in rugby.

 

[Strewthcobber]

Optaspots definitely has the data, they used to do some good analysis on it all in seasons passed under statsperfom

Unfortunately they don't include it in any of their public offerings as far as I am aware. The NRL get some