I think the front row is a given, as is the back-up purely due to a lack of alternatives. Simmons will start, Skelton didn't show enough so the other two locks will be Carter & Horwill, Horwill to start for mine but I think it's more likely to be Carter. My starting back row would be McMahon, Hooper & McCalman, even with Higgers fit. If he is, he's on the bench, if not it's Hodgson.
I think Cheika will stick with Phipps/Foley as the halves, with Genia/Cooper the bench, certainly the safer option. If that's the case, I would start Lilo at 12, nothing against To'omua, I just think it's a better combination. Start Cooper at 10 (which I'd like to see later on outside Phipps) and then you start To'omua at 12. Kuridrani, Speight & Folau are givens, and while it probably won't happen, I like Horne on the other wing ahead of both AAC (Adam Ashley-Cooper) and Tomane. AAC (Adam Ashley-Cooper) then becomes your third player on the bench.
Not a likely team, just my thoughts.