Rugby: Wallabies worthy of respect but not fear
By Gregor Paul
5:30 AM Sunday Sep 19, 2010
There's a growing wariness about the Wallabies and the potential threat they will pose this time next year.
So what if they have lost 10 in a row to the All Blacks - does anyone really trust them not to lose another two and then beat New Zealand at next year's World Cup?
It would be so typically Australian to win when they have to - to rip out the All Blacks' heart then dance on it. This is the Wallabies, the masters at pressure football; the sort of cunning foxes who really would deliberately bumble their way through three-and-a-half years just to keep their true World Cup credentials a surprise.
The presence of Robbie Deans doesn't help breed trust on this side of the Tasman. Everyone knows the genius of Deans. He's a campaign coach - knows how to plan from day one to the final in detail. He was hired on a four-year contract, asked to build a side that would win the 2011 World Cup.
The last two months have seen the Wallabies grow into a more credible force.
They were committed and organised in Christchurch, created a thousand and one chances in Pretoria, showed guts and creativity in Bloemfontein and control and accuracy in Sydney.
The backline could equal the one that featured George Gregan, Stephen Larkham, Joe Roff, Matt Burke, Tim Horan and Jason Little.
The forwards are definitely more robust than they were; their set-piece work greatly improved, their conditioning better and their physical presence obvious. One more year and this could be a seriously good Australian team.
To think any less of the Wallabies is to invite disaster. New Zealand's rugby fraternity has this unwritten code of being unduly nervous of opponents and overly generous about their capabilities.
Favouritism, particularly at World Cups, is a label not worn well by the All Blacks, which may explain this reluctance to see the alternative view about the Wallabies.
For all the qualities they have shown in their last four tests, they have won only two. They were leading 21-7 in Pretoria and 22-9 in Sydney and yet blew it. They nearly lost in Bloemfontein as well, after a 31-6 lead.
Once the strongest mental side in world rugby, the Wallabies are now the biggest bottlers. They have lost the winning habit and they are a side, certainly when they play the All Blacks, that don't believe they can win.
The Wallaby teams who won World Cups in 1991 and 1999 peaked for the event.
But both those teams made progressive improvements in terms of results, with their win ratios higher in the two years before the World Cup than they were in the two years after.
The Wallabies had an overall win ratio of 62 per cent between 1988 and 1991 and beat the All Blacks in 1990 and 1991 - something they had failed to do in either of the two previous years. That record win against England in 1990 showed they were on the right track.
It was the same in the 1996-1999 cycle. They won 54 per cent of their tests in 1996, 72 per cent in 1997 and 84 per cent in 1998 and 1999.
The record under Deans is entirely different. Overall, they have a 54 per cent win ratio; winning 64 per cent in 2008, 46 per cent in 2009 and 50 per cent so far this year. There is no obvious progression and these are not great returns.
Can a team barely winning half their games for three years burst into life in World Cup year and win the thing?
Those who say yes need to look closely at what has been witnessed this year.
Rocky Elsom has lost his cool with referees on numerous occasions, something a test captain simply can't afford to do. He's a bruising runner, big defender and hard worker - but an iconic captain in the same mould as Nick Farr-Jones and John Eales? Not even close.
Matt Giteau has been a passenger and clearly doesn't have the nerve for pressure goal-kicking. Kurtley Beale has been brilliant and awful - a man who screams flake. Quade Cooper runs their attack nicely but in his first three Tri Nations games this year made just 30 tackles from 58 attempts.
David Pocock is a brilliant No 7 but can he adapt to individual referees or will his age and lack of experience lead him, as happened in Sydney, to plough on regardless and scream at the official he's getting it wrong?
And what about Deans? Is he as sage and in control as everyone believes? Australian players don't necessarily have the same rugby education as those in Canterbury. The patterns, the skills, the ways of thinking are not ingrained and does Deans have the patience to get through to players who can't operate on instinct?
Is he setting the right tone or is he breeding a culture where the team and those around them are happier to allude to unpenalised All Black transgressions as the key differences?
"The Australians are running scared," says former All Black selector Peter Thorburn.
"Every opportunity they get to talk about the All Blacks cheating, they take it."
Distrusting Australians is in the DNA. They have to be respected, but certainly not feared.
