Geez, this year has the potential to be a season from hell for us. The Wallabies are one from 6 so far, but have another 9 tests to go (ARG X 2, SA, ABs, Grand Slam, France) of which only one game is at home. There are only 3 rest weekends (test match free) between now and our last game on 3 Dec so there isn't really going to be much chance to change a whole lot up from here on in either.
We need to win 7 of our last nine to have a winning record this year. Not sure if that matters, nor if it is realistically achievable.
That depends on whether you regard our problems as problems of form, or class, or circumstance.
If it's form, then the year can only improve, since form is temporary, and the average ranking of the teams we face is about to fall precipitously. We may not be able to claw back the deficit, but it won't be an "anus horribilis". If we can play well and win most games well from here on, it'll be a recovery.
If it's class, then you're correct: it could get messy. But if it's class, how can we have been a high-quality team last year, and a low-quality team this year, wih essentially the same players and coaches? It seems to me that a lack of form is a more likely explanation. Good players don't become bad players overnight. And Michael Cheika isn't suddenly the world's worst coach, as much as some fans would like to see a ritual sacking.
Circumstances are a mixture of both those things. If we'd kicked our goals, we could easily have been 2-0 up going into the final test against the Soap Dodgers, since we won every metric except the goal kicks and games. And then might have rolled them in their last game of a very long year. That's not coulda-shoulda-woulda hypothesizing: it's a reflection of form. Against the AIGs, we're just not in the same class at the moment. We need an influx of fresh talent (like they have had) before we can hope to catch them, and there are some signs of that coming. But there's nothing to suggest that the rest of the world has gotten any better since the world cup.
There are certainly major positives. Our front row stocks are unequalled in our rugby history. Several of our props have the potential to step up and become world class. Now we also have signs of a durable, tough set of locks with some mongrel about them. The backrow speaks for itself. Whether or not we agree with the Pooper, an in-form Fardy Pooper is obviously world-class. It's our backs that are less convincing, but that's easier to fix than a pack that retreats faster than the French surrender to Germans. Two wingers with real gas and the return from injury of some of our 12s would go a long way to sorting it completely.
