The run home: the comp gets serious

[Lindommer]

Eight weeks down, six to go. By my reckoning the Canes, Sharks, Clan, Force and the two pussy cats are out of it. I'll stake my banner and say both the Reds and Brumbies will both (just) fall short: the Reds' inexperience, mentioned by Link on the weekend, will catch up with them and the Brumbies' popgun attack, coupled with the continued absence of their talismans, Mortlock and Smith, will eventually bite them on the arse. But in their favour the Ponies have only two away games left, against the Tahs and Saders; they’ll conceivably win one of them, I hope in Christchurch!

Tables, shmables. There are currently four five manufactured ones, by Bruce, Biffo, Lee and Scotty, and fatprop, all attempting to show an "accurate" picture taking into account the bye. They are: Bruce's and Biffo’s, with four and 2.5 points added on for the bye respectively, Lee’s, allocating five points per team per match and noting points squandered, and Scotty’s, calculating points won per match played and fatprop's, showing losses incurred and BPs gained. And we mustn’t forget the official one.

Bruce Biffo Lee Scotty fatprop SANZAR
32 Bulls 30.5 Bulls 7 Bulls 4 Bulls 1, 4bp Bulls 28 Tahs
29 Saders 28 Tahs 10 Saders 3.6 Saders 1, 3bp Saders 28 Bulls
28 Stormers 27.5 Saders 11 Stormers 3.5 Tahs 2, 4bp Tahs 25 Saders
28 Tahs 26.5 Stormers 12 Tahs 3.4 Stormers 2, 4bp Stormers 24 Stormers
25 Reds 23.5 Reds 14 Reds 3 Reds 2, 1bp Ponies 21 Reds
25 Chiefs 23.5 Chiefs 14 Chiefs 3 Chiefs 3, 5bp Reds 21 Chiefs
25 Ponies 23.5 Ponies 14 Ponies 3 Ponies 3, 5bp Chiefs 21 Ponies
24 Blues 22.5 Blues 15 Blues 2.9 Blues 3, 4bp Blues 20 Blues
18 Canes 18 Canes 22 Canes 2.3 Canes 4, 4bp Canes 18 Canes
16 Sharks 16 Sharks 24 Sharks 2 Sharks 5, 4bp Sharks 16 Sharks
13 Cheetahs 11.5 Cheetahs 26 Cheetahs 1.4 Clan 5, 1bp Cheetahs 11 Clan
11 Clan 11 Clan 29 Clan 1.3 Cheetahs 6, 3bp Clan 9 Cheetahs
9 Force 7.5 Force 30 Force 0.7 Force 6, 1bp Force 5 Force
7 Lions 5.5 Lions 32 Lions 0.4 Lions 7, 3bp Lions 3 Lions

Games from now on become interesting. It’s possible for the Tahs to lose this week in Christchurch and still make the semis, but if they want to top the table they must beat the Saders. Both the Saders and the Stormers have difficult runs home and it’s possible they’ll both miss the semis. Here’s whom they have to play:

Stormers BLUES/CHIEFS/REDS/SADERS/Sharks/BULLS
Saders TAHS/Cheetahs/Force/STORMERS/BULLS/BRUMBIES

The Stormers have two home games left (Saders and Bulls, they should win one) and four away games, three against fellow finals contenders. My money’s on them winning only three more games. The Saders play the two top SAf teams away and the two best Aussie teams at home; I wouldn’t bet on them beating the Ponies in Christchurch after returning from a difficult tour of RSA. They should also win only three more games. But, crucially, the Stormers, Saders and Bulls all play each other, Stormers/Saders in round 12 followed by Bulls/Saders and finally Stormers/Bulls.

Presuming the Clan and the two pussy cats lose all games to those above them, the remaining matches for the Reds, Chiefs, Blues, Canes, Sharks and Force will determine the finalists. They are:

Reds Lions/BULLS/STORMERS/PONIES/Canes/Clan 3 wins
Chiefs BULLS/STORMERS/Cheetahs/Canes/TAHS/BLUES 4 wins
Blues STORMERS/Force/Sharks/Cheetahs/Lions/CHIEFS 4 wins
Canes bye/PONIES/Clan/CHIEFS/REDS/TAHS 2 wins
Sharks bye/Lions/BLUES/BULLS/STORMERS/Force 3 wins
Force Clan/BLUES/SADERS/Lions/Cheetahs/Sharks 4 wins

Looking at the Force, they have only one home game left. But they’re running into form and will have a steady trickle of injured players returning; the two matches against the Blues and Saders will be crucial to those teams’ finals chances. For mine they’re now the spoilers of the competition. Now look at the Chiefs, they don’t leave the North Island for the rest of the comp. Of their away matches against the Canes and Blues they should win one of them and will be favoured to win another against either the Bulls or Stormers.

My predictions? Here goes: Bulls or Tahs for top spot (both definite finalists), but to do so the Tahs must win this week. The remaining two to come from the Saders, Stormers, Chiefs, Ponies and Blues. I’ll plump for the Chiefs and Blues.

Legend: home games in black, away games in red, finals contenders in CAPITALS.

edited. Thanks, Moses.

 

[Biffo]

1. Bulls
2. Tahs
3. Crusaders
4. Blues

 

[fatprop]

I did the looking at it by loss, then bonus points

L BP
Bulls 1 4
Crusaders 1 3
Waratahs 2 4
Stormers 2 4
Brumbies 2 1
Reds 3 5
Chiefs 3 5
Blues 3 4
Hurricanes 4 4
Sharks 5 4
Cheetahs 5 1
Highlanders 6 3
Western Force 6 1
Lions 7 3

Last year the Tahs missed out with 4 losses and 5 bonus points (2,3 & 4 each lost 4 games) while the Bulls finished first with 3 losses and 6 bonus points. In 2008 & 2007 also 4 losses and you are on the edge of the semis.

So 4 losses is the worst a side can budget for and then it comes down to bonus points. So today the Sharks, Cheetahs, Highlanders, Western Force & Lions are gone, with Canes one loss away.

 

[Bruce Ross]

It is interesting to observe that my non-original method and Lee's very original one have produced exactly the same ordering of the teams.

 

[Biffo]

Mine differs from yours only in places 2,3,4. However, Lindo has taken a simplified approach to mine - he has applied the average expected value of a bye without accounting for home and away and games against lower- and higher- placed teams.

 

[mark_s]

I think the table will be bulls, crusaders, tahs and one of the blues/chiefs/reds (most likely the blues in my opinion). This assumes the crusaders win this weekend, otherwise the tahs will sneak into 2nd.

The brumbies will probably end up with 4 losses and miss out on BPs.

 

[Lee Grant]

Outstanding work Lindommer and other trainspotters

I never claimed that my list gave an accurate picture, but I knew when the Tahs were deemed to be 4th by the official table after the Force game, which was a nonsense except to bean counters, that some other list that was more relevant should be offered for discussion.

And then when the Tahs we were officially listed as 1st after Week 8, I presented it again, because it was still a nonsense.

 

[Hawko]

Great analysis Lindommer.

All tables have the same top four - Bulls, Crusaders, Waratahs and Stormers. You'd have to say on performances to date these are the best teams, but there's plenty of scope for a huge slip down for all of them. This comp is way more open than it looked a few weeks ago, when a Stormers/Bulls final looked like a shoo-in.

You could waste days just trying to predict the multiple outcomes. Last week could be said to be a crucial week but I think this week could be even more important:

If the Crusaders lose this week I think they'll miss the four.
If the Tahs win this week they are a huge threat for top spot and home finals. Lose and they'll either miss the four or travel to SA.
The Stormers must win the next two to make top two a sure thing, but lose two and they are either gone or fourth.
The Bulls need a win this week to keep a top two spot. I don't think they'll win the comp. unless they finish top two.
The Blues can seal a spot in the four if they can get past the Stormers defence this week. Their better front row is playing and I think they are a chance. They should win everything in SA but the last game is a banana skin with the travel.
Brumbies must win everything from here but the draw suits them. They are still in the hunt despite what the pundits say about BP's.
The Chiefs have lots of home games but injuries and no tight five will hurt them. Who they can beat will determine top four spots, but it won't be them.
The Hurricanes can't make it but they could be decisive in who does.

I'm not going to do any more projections for two weeks. By then we will know the results of the next two rounds and we will see how well the Tahs, Crusaders, Stormers, Bulls and Brumbies are playing, which will determine how they are going to go for the last few rounds.. I reckon we'll know the top four within a fortnight, more or less. The order will depend on round 14.

 

[James Buchanan]

You didn't talk about the Reds Hawko, who are either in the same position as the Blues or the Canes, by your analysis.

 

[Hawko]

The Reds had to win last week in my view. They have played fabulous footy but will lose to the Bulls after the travel home, and then have to beat both Stormers and Brumbies, which I think is one bridge too far.

 

[PaarlBok]

The marathon is just past it halfway mark, one sprint at a time. This competition get to the stage now when your desperate for a semi spot teams turns out to be the hunger one and usually wins. Only a few sure predictions , the beauty of S14 is that one team can beat the other on any day.

 

[James Buchanan]

The Reds had to win last week in my view. They have played fabulous footy but will lose to the Bulls after the travel home, and then have to beat both Stormers and Brumbies, which I think is one bridge too far.

Even so, while that may or may not occur, they have plenty of ability to affect the table given that they still have to play the Bulls, Stormers and Brumbies.

 

[spectator]

The Reds had to win last week in my view. They have played fabulous footy but will lose to the Bulls after the travel home, and then have to beat both Stormers and Brumbies, which I think is one bridge too far.

Even so, while that may or may not occur, they have plenty of ability to affect the table given that they still have to play the Bulls, Stormers and Brumbies.

The Reds obviously have to win this weekend, and assuming this happens, the following week against the Bulls, after the long trip, will be the season decider. I wonder how travel and battle weary the likes of Genia, Cooper and A Fainga'a will be, having played most minutes of all games to date?

It will be interesting to see what factor that plays in Link's announcement of this weeks squad.

 

[Godfrey]

I really can't see Genia/Cooper and Ioane playing much more than 50 mins this weekend if we're pummelling them.

 

[fatprop]

The Reds had to win last week in my view. They have played fabulous footy but will lose to the Bulls after the travel home, and then have to beat both Stormers and Brumbies, which I think is one bridge too far.

Yeah, the Reds can only lose one more game and make the semis, I think they will lose two.

I also expect the Waratahs and Brumbies to lose two more matches and both be battling for those 2,3,4,5,6,7 spots.

The Crusaders also have a really hard run in, two of the top teams in SA then the Brumbies in Canberra is a horror run.

 

[Lindommer]

The Crusaders also have a really hard run in, two of the top teams in SA then the Brumbies in Canberra is a horror run.

The Saders have a pothole-strewn road from here on, but no worse than the Stormers. Realistically there are eight teams still in the hunt, from the Blues up. The Tahs play 3 fellow finals contenders, Bulls 4, Saders 4, Stormers 5, Reds 3, Chiefs 4, Brumbies 3 and Blues 2. Of those eight the Chiefs and Blues have the easiest runs home.

For mine the defining features for the rest of the competition are the shit schedules coming up for the Stormers and Saders and the fact the teams currently sitting 2, 3 and 4 on the table play each other in the last three rounds, the Stormers both at home and the Saders both away. No matter what the Tahs do, one or two of the Bulls, Saders and Stormers WILL lose ground or mark time relative to the Tahs.

The more I pore over the entrails of this comp the more I come to the conclusion the Tahs have a wonderful opportunity to win it. But to win any sporting contest a team has to beat the best of the rest, and the Tahs have to start this weekend.

 

[Aussie D]

The more I pore over the entrails of this comp the more I come to the conclusion the Tahs have a wonderful opportunity to win it. But to win any sporting contest a team has to beat the best of the rest, and the Tahs have to start this weekend.

They'll find a new way to either miss top spot (to the Bulls most likely) or lose some very winnable games to miss the semis. They always do. And people like to call the All blacks chokers .... :fishing

 

[Ruggo]

To many variables to make predictions. If predictions were worth anything, the Reds would not even be contenders at the moment. three major things need to happen to give this all some clarity.

1/ Need to see where the Tahs are after the bye.
2/ Need to see how the Reds shape up against the Bulls and Stormers
3/ Need to see where the Bulls sit on the ladder after their tour

The winners at the moment are us rugby fans as this is all bloody exciting stuff.

 

[Reddy!]

The fact is, pretty much all teams on the verge of making the final 4 come the last week will all have tough run homes. Bonus points and for and against are going to play a massive part in how makes it and who doesn't. It's going to be bloody close, that's for sure.

 

[Hawko]

Five points to the Bulls tonight, I was hoping they'd get no more than four and preferably one. The BP is huge for them and gives them so much insurance for the coming weeks. Next week they have the travel weary Reds and then they are back home with Crusaders (home) and Stormers (away) the difficult games and the Lions and Sharks for practise. If those two lesser games yield bonus points, I think they can drop a difficult game and still top the table, even if the Stormers, Crusaders or Waratahs win everything from here. Chiefs can't make top two and very very unlikely for top four.