The Rugby Championship 2016

[Braveheart81]

Sure, but would the bookies set the opening price on who they might rationally think will win, or on which side they think will attract the most money. The latter I think.

No way.

They will always set a market based on how they see the result playing out.

If they get it badly wrong, they stand to lose a fortune. They want to set the odds and the line such that the spread of money from punters is fairly evenly split and they make money on their margin. If they weigh the odds too heavily in one direction, all the money piles on that way and their risk increases dramatically (i.e. they can either win big or lose big). They then have to lay some of that risk off with other bookmakers which costs them a margin.

Clearly the results over the first two weeks of the Rugby Championship will have an impact on the market because it provides more information how the two teams are travelling.

Bookmakers try not go gamble. They aim to make money on the margin (i.e. the even money bet pays out $1.90 for every $1 bet).

 

[mst]

I love a good article that ignores reality! So what year is this different from?

A lopsided Super Rugby season could be a blessing in disguise for the Wallabies when it comes to the Bledisloe Cup.

http://www.rugby.com.au/news/2016/07/20/07/48/super-kiwis-a-good-sign-for-bledisloe

 

[chasmac]

I love a good article that ignores reality! So what year is this different from?

A lopsided Super Rugby season could be a blessing in disguise for the Wallabies when it comes to the Bledisloe Cup.

http://www.rugby.com.au/news/2016/07/20/07/48/super-kiwis-a-good-sign-for-bledisloe

I bashed my head against his fist type logic.

 

[zer0]

"There are no demons at the Cake Tin....."

That's true. Well, except for the fact that Australia haven't defeated NZ there since 2000, when John Eales kicked that absolutely filthy penalty goal of his.

 

[galumay]

No way.

They will always set a market based on how they see the result playing out.

I doubt its as black and white as that, and it hardly matters - as soon as bets start flowing the odds are entirely set by the amount of money being bet.

My guess is that its a combination of factors that lead to the opening odds being set.

 

[Scrubber2050]

Moore really seems to copping plenty from Refs, and has lost their "respect".

Comments from Refs saying "Show some leadership Stephen" are fucking wrong by Refs. It just undermines the bloke.

I can't recall any Referee saying similar stuff to Ritchie (on the back of multiple AB infringements). I'm sure he would have ripped in.

Captaincy seems to be an issue.

 

[MonkeyBoy]

Moore really seems to copping plenty from Refs, and has lost their "respect".

Comments from Refs saying "Show some leadership Stephen" are fucking wrong by Refs. It just undermines the bloke.

I can't recall any Referee saying similar stuff to Ritchie (on the back of multiple AB infringements). I'm sure he would have ripped in.

Captaincy seems to be an issue.

I think that may be due to the way the referee is approached. Moore has come at the referees in an aggressive or whinging manner continuously this year. He talks over the referee, interrupts them and is constantly there...

 

[Scrubber2050]

I think that may be due to the way the referee is approached. Moore has come at the referees in an aggressive or whinging manner continuously this year. He talks over the referee, interrupts them and is constantly there.

Probably agree with that.

THEN, he either needs to change his ref management or be changed himself

We don't need referees offside anymore than we have to.

 

[Viking]

Moore really seems to copping plenty from Refs, and has lost their "respect".

Comments from Refs saying "Show some leadership Stephen" are fucking wrong by Refs. It just undermines the bloke.

I can't recall any Referee saying similar stuff to Ritchie (on the back of multiple AB infringements). I'm sure he would have ripped in.

Captaincy seems to be an issue.

I think the Ref was fair in saying that to Moore. Moore was whinging like a school kid. I think it was the first penalty in the red zone by the highlanders and he was calling for a yellow.

Moore is one of the worst ref managers I've seen in a while.

 

[Scoey]

As the Brumbies QF wore on, Angus Gardiner was clearly getting shittier and shittier with Moore, and said as much at one stage. This is where the 50/50 calls start consistently going the other teams way and what I believe I saw during this match. The more I see of Moore as captain the more I am convinced he should never be captain.

 

[Groucho]

Sure, but would the bookies set the opening price on who they might rationally think will win, or on which side they think will attract the most money. The latter I think. Wallabies at Suncorp is always likely to attract the most money from loyal punters regardless of the form of both teams leading into the match.

I guess I'm saying that the Wallabies will probably be the favourite, but the Boks would be more favoured to win if we are facing 7 test losses on the trot and they have two wins over the Argies.

So there are bookies that offer wrong odds to attract bets that they think they will lose? Woo. I'm giving up my day job.

 

[Groucho]

I doubt its as black and white as that, and it hardly matters - as soon as bets start flowing the odds are entirely set by the amount of money being bet.

My guess is that its a combination of factors that lead to the opening odds being set.

I think people are confusing starting price bookies with totalizator systems.

 

[I like to watch]

The most successful bookies are those that get set at the lowest possible odds.
If they open one side at 'overs' they will get slammed,and struggle to balance their book.

The term bookmaking should give a hint to their art.
The intent is to 'make a book' so every eventuality is a winning result for them.

Any bookie that continually lets punters on for 'overs' is destined to go broke.

 

[Scoey]

Anyway......

So Bledisloe 1 is just under 4 weeks away, and with all of the Aussie teams having two thirds of fuck all to do at the moment, I assume they will be assembling some sort of training squad soon.

I would've thought that they would have a similar squad to the one prior to the June series (less the Brumbies Wallabies) already together training informally at the very least. Or is there a RUPA or similar requirement for them to have a week or two rest?

Anyone heard any rumours about what is happening and when?

 

[KOB1987]

All I've heard is that Bill Meakes is in it and the Brumbies players get the week off!

 

[The_Brown_Hornet]

Squeak's handling of the refs does need some work and I've heard the blokes with the whistle chide him more than once. I also distinctly recall Joubert telling Moore that he's not going to cop fifteen gold players screaming at him constantly. Fair enough too. Cheik needs to get in his ear and tell to modify his approach or appoint another captain.

 

[Slim 293]

Captaincy seems to be an issue.

This is true, and there really aren't any better alternatives in the team.............

Pocock........ maybe?

 

[Quick Hands]

The most successful bookies are those that get set at the lowest possible odds.
If they open one side at 'overs' they will get slammed,and struggle to balance their book.

The term bookmaking should give a hint to their art.
The intent is to 'make a book' so every eventuality is a winning result for them.

Any bookie that continually lets punters on for 'overs' is destined to go broke.

They only offer overs on something that they think can't win to get the sucker money, but the price will come down quickly if too much money comes in. If they think that they've taken too much and are at risk of losing big, they'll lay off by placing bets with other bookies or the tote to minimise their losses.

Father-in-law was a bookie, but never made a bet after he retired - because the bookie always wins.

 

[Quick Hands]

This is true, and there really aren't any better alternatives in the team.....

Pocock.... maybe?

He's more thoughtful, more intelligent and more likely to engage in a conversation with the ref rather than the belligerence of Moore.

 

[Viking]

This is true, and there really aren't any better alternatives in the team.....

Pocock.... maybe?

Pocock is great with ref's...Not sure about his game management though - although that can be fixed by communicating the game plan with the coaches....but he's gone next year so that's not an option.