The guessing game: return of Vickerman

[DPK]

If not a Bledisloe Cup or Tri-Nations victory, Australia almost certainly would have broken its run of nine straight losses to the All Blacks with Vickerman in the side. The Vickerman story is a salutary lesson for the ARU when it continues its negotiations with Cooper.

What a ridiculous statement. What are the odds that he would have been injured, out of form or just had a shocker?

 

[Lance Free]

Not forgetting the return yesterday to club rugby of Van Humphries. I wonder whether he was ever in Wallaby calculations?

 

[H...]

Van Humphries is 34, no thanks.

 

[TOCC]

Victor Matfield is 33, Brad Thorn is 35,
Martin Johnson was 34 at the 2003 RWC..

 

[DPK]

Victor Matfield is 33, Brad Thorn is 35,
Martin Johnson was 34 at the 2003 RWC..

All of those players had international experience before that age. I'd prefer not to see a green and gold walking frame on the paddock.

 

[Lee Grant]

DPK - cruel but funny.

Certainly Van is the type of 2nd rower we need.

 

[RedsHappy]

DPK - cruel but funny.

Certainly Van is the type of 2nd rower we need.

Yes. The guy is super tough and gutsy to a fault.

I recently had a long chat with him at a Reds' dinner. He's got tremendous vitality and drive in person, for what it's worth just as a human observation. No way did he come across as 'over it' in person.

My view is that Thorn et al proves age is not always the issue; it's what age has given you, what athletic prowess remains (and/or has been in some cases enhanced through experience, not in absolute terms, but in the more shrewd use of force that can come with many battles had), and what mental maturity/hardening has done for the contribution you can make. This latter attribute may be in some cases superior in value to the team when compared to the losses of athletic edge. RD's model of dispensing with the old heads and trialling a lot of younger players at once is creaking at the seams right now.

And _surely_ we now need some considered experimentation in our forwards. Can we really be delighted with Mumm? Can Vickerman - coming only in June next year - be relied upon as the answer we need? Will Sharpe hold up well into 2011? How long will Horwill take to be completely right and contributing as he was at peak? I like Van the Man as a considered depth component (along with other candidates) for say 2 more years. Assuming he's fully fit, trialling him off the bench for 20mins in say the last Bled or the first mid-week EOYT game would be not be foolhardy IMO.

 

[H...]

Yeah when you put it like that, why the hell not? But forget the EOYT or the Hong Kong game, why not chuck him in the deep end? Pretoria?

 

[DPK]

If Deans picked like that, he would have picked Phil Waugh too.

 

[Lee Grant]

RedsHappy

Many of us were concerned when the first 2010 squad was picked that there weren't enough hard men in the forwards and thought that Van should have been in it. [IMO there weren't enough hard guys in the backs either but that is by the by.]

Since Deans has been bloody minded about some selections, such as excluding Al Baxter at the time when he was fit and Alexander wasn't, we put Van out of our mind.

There are no inbound tours next year, and only 4 3N matches for Oz; so if Van is going to be used before the RWC it will probably be on the EOYT. I doubt if the 2 starting Oz locks will be displaced regardless of some peoples' opinions about Mumm, and Simmons is a project, as he should be.

Chisholm was the other lock used this year, apart from cameos, and last played a test against Ireland when Sharpe was injured prior to the match. Young Douglas had a few minutes for the Oz Barbarians. That's 5 locks already under consideration.

Oz took 35 players of the 2009 EOYT and are likely to do the same again. IIRR Horwill, Mumm and Chisholm were the only 3 specialist locks used in the test matches apart from cameos, as Deans would define specialists, and with Sharpe replacing Horwill this year, Mumm likely to be retained, and Simmons 3rd lock, it would need the following for Humphries to tour:

- Van to replace Mumm (unlikely)

- Van to be used instead of one of the halflings taken on tour last year (Dennis and Chapman) and used in dirt-tracker games. (Possible, but Deans may already have Higginbotham and/or McCalman pencilled in for one of the halfling spots. And if he wants a lock to replace a halfling he may consider Douglas instead, especally if Southerns make the Shute Shield finals and Douglas stars.)

This supposes also that Chisholm, picked for 3N squad don't forget, is disposed of.

In other words: it's easy enough to say that so and so should go on the end of year tour, but it's not a cast of thousands.



To digress about the RWC, though it is relevant to Van: I don't think we realise yet the full consequences of the S15 conference system. Let's say the Brumbies, Reds and Tahs are in contention for conference leadership, for sake of argument, and only one Oz team is likely to progress to the finals. Let's suppose also that Horwill and Sharpe are in red hot form and fit, and 1st cabs of the rank of second rowers.

In that case we could have Chisholm, Mumm, Douglas, Simmons and Van all contending for the 3rd RWC lock spot in the RWC squad, though Mumm could be considered as a lock/6 halfling, and also, they may pick an extra specialist lock in the squad at the expense of a halfling.

Which team makes the Super finals will be key for the players concerned because the selectors will put great weight on performances in a series that mimics the RWC, so close to the time of the RWC.

 

[Scotty]

Was thinking about the question of Van last night. One thing popped into my mind - Simmons was not the form lock of the Reds season, and yet many are suggesting he gets a start for the Wallabies in the next game.

One Van the man was the best performing lock in the Reds set up, and he hardly rates a mention. Since he is still playing S15 next year, then he probably did warrant a chance at international level to see what he could bring.

 

[RedsHappy]

RedsHappy Many of us were concerned when the first 2010 squad was picked that there weren't enough hard men in the forwards and thought that Van should have been in it. [IMO there weren't enough hard guys in the backs either but that is by the by.]...Since Deans has been bloody minded about some selections, such as excluding Al Baxter at the time when he was fit and Alexander wasn't, we put Van out of our mind....

Thanks Lee. As usual, very informative.

A couple of points:

- if taking a bigger squad to Europe for the EOYT is the right way to genuinely build a bit more depth via say using mid-week games, more bench experimentation, etc, etc to trial more candidates for key forwards positions, then let's take more players! Make it 40 or 45! If we're serious about depth creation for RWC and beyond, the extra cost is inconsequential.

- I know you predict Mumm to stick around given RD's relentless stubbornness, but this surely should be argued. Mumm seems to be improving - at a somewhat glacial pace - but is he improving to a high enough place in terms of the type of lock quality and mindset we need?

Your ideas and points re 2011 S15, well made.

 

[Gnostic]

One thing that I have said before that seems to get missed when discussing both Mumm and Sharpe is the lack of a successful maul against Oz this year and their form in countering this tactic in the S14 when it was used. They have developed a knack of infiltrating the opposition maul and disrupting or depowering it. Look back on their success against England and the Boks. It should be noted the only time the Bok got a successful drive from a lineout was when Sharpe was on the ground spitting out his front teeth. One of these two need to be there to ensure that the Lock coming in takes these skills on board. This was missing was Oz Rugby for a long long time and we don't want to lose it again. Just note that it was missing when Vickerman was around at the last RWC. I am a sceptic until he proves his form at S15 level.

 

[TOCC]

i wasnt suggesting that Van be picked for the EOYT, i was just pointing out that when it comes to the locking position, age isnt necessarily the major issue, in fact it would seem that locks hit there prime in there late 20's early 30's.

 

[jason]

One big plus is that he'll come back two years crankier - and if there's one thing that Australian rugby is always deficient in, it's hard men.

Dan never does anything without a lot of thought. At the time he went to Cambridge he left open the possibility of coming back to professional rugby but stated that he would see whether he still had the passion for it after he finished his studies. One thing that's certain is that dollars wouldn't have entered into his decision. He always said that he has never played for money. At the same time he doesn't let anyone put anything over him and manages his own negotiations.

The three year contract suggests that he's really committed. And it won't only be the players who will be nervous about the Vickerman glare - the coaches will also be apprehensive.

Agreed. He's always been a true gentleman whenever we've spoken but I've heard that he's pretty quick to fire up. Case in point, Cambridge had the Varsity match all wrapped up with a minute or two to go, but Oxford crossed for a consolation try. While everyone else was celebrating, Vickerman was absolutely livid. I like that.

 

[jason]

jason, what are you doing at Cambridge?[/threadjack]

Undergrad law - starting my final year in October. Going to be a real shame to say bye to the place, absolutely love it.