I thought this was an interesting article on the parallels between the demise of the NSW Labour Party and the fracturing of Rugby League in its Heartland of Western Sydney.
Although Western Sydney is not a Rugby Union heartland, the following quote is quite pertinent for Rugby, particularily NSW Rugby:
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/ne...broken-heartland/story-e6frezz0-1226622919431
To state the bleeding obvious, Rugby cannot neglect it's heartlands (from a Sydney centric perspective the North and East of Sydney), but there is a great opportunity for rugby in Western Sydney. Although we don't have the AFL "war chest' we can learn from the AFL and concentrate on specifc areas/schools and we can learn from Rugby League in what not to do. It could take a while, but we could do it one suburb at a time.
Completely agree one of the biggest challenges facing Rugby, not only in Australia but globally, is how to correctly manage growth in the game. Rugby is currently at a crossroads and needs smart guys with vision in development roles. Globally Rugby is still a small sport when compared to behemoths like soccer and it should learn from the many mistakes made in soccer and other major global club based sports before it grows any bigger.
The time to plan for that growth is now, or more correctly it was 5-10 years ago, but still with the right people and the right plan it's not too late. Rugby will grow as a global sport I have no doubts about that. There are so many untapped markets for it to move into over the coming years that it may well experience a boom over the next 10 years.
One of the big drivers for that will be the Olympics which will massively raise the profile of 7s but also attract many more people to 15s if the IRB and various unions are properly prepared to exploit the sports moment in the spot light. It's the most exciting sport to become an Olympic event in a long time. The format is great for TV and it will get a lot of coverage due to the fact that it's the kind of event people will watch no matter who's playing. Also unlike many other Olympic events there are fewer barriers to people entering the sport as participants. i.e. A greater percentage of people watching will think "I'd like to give that a go."
My worry is that the IRB and the various unions won't be properly prepared to take advantage of this one off boost in popularity. Instead of making it easy for people to make the connection between 7s and 15s many people may still be ignorant of the existence of the 15s game. This would result in an increased profile for 7s versus 15s with the two seen as different games rather than 2 formats of the same game.
Already there are funding shifts from 15s to 7s in the women's game. With many of the elite England women's team rested for this years 6Ns to focus on the 7s WC with an aim to build towards the 2016 Olympics. This is a worrying trend as Rugby in all formats is a very attractive sport to tap into a huge female market both in terms of participation and support. There was even talk of splitting the women's 6Ns into a 2 tier system with Wales, Scotland and Italy in a lower division. This was narrowly avoided as critics said it would be the death of the elite women's 15s game in the NH. This is depressing when we should be encouraging more women to be involved in all areas of the game. IMHO the various unions could do worse than appoint some qualified women to high level positions.
In countries where the 15s isn't as established as in the Tier 1 nations it may be that funding is also shifted from the men's game. This would then create pressure on the existing super powers of Rugby in shift funding so as not to be embarrassed at the Olympics. Rugby is in danger of their being a split between 7s and 15s with potentially a breakaway organization for the 7s format at some point in the next 10-15 years.
On top of that is the point you raise about the rugby heartlands. Local rugby clubs all over the world are the heartbeat of the sport. They needs to be properly looked after by the Unions. No one wants to see a situation like soccer where all the money concentrates at the top of the game while clubs over 100 years old go to the wall for lack of funding. However this is exactly what will happen unless the IRB and Unions have solid plans for how to handle the growth of the game.
As I said there are huge markets out there for the sport and as it grows TV contracts and sponsorships will get bigger and bigger, especially after the sport cracks the U.S. and Asia. The unions should be thinking now about what to do at that point. I'm a big advocate of Unions setting aside a portion of any large TV or sponsorship deals to be earmarked for grassroots development and support. If this doesn't happen then like many other larger sports the bulk of the money in the sport will be hoovered up by high profile players, their agents and clubs.
As time passes elite clubs and franchises will become more and more powerful to the detriment of unions and smaller clubs. There is a shift at the elite level in the NH to a soccer style model where there is a rich benefactor who has no loyalty to anything other than the success of their club. As the sport becomes bigger in other parts of the world this will attract more benefactors and a there will be a corresponding reduction in Union funded clubs/provinces/franchises as these pass into private ownership. This shift in ownership will also be accompanied by a shift in power.
I have no doubt that at the elite level the game is not dying and will in fact grow massively on a global scale over the next 20 years or so. This growth will be accompanied by a massive increase in the amount of money in the game. My major concern is where that money goes. With the administration of our game still largely amateur in it's approach (paying someone a lot of money doesn't equal professionalism in my book) I really worry for the future of local rugby clubs the world over. The custodians of our game are an old boys networks who are mired in political infighting and these are the guys that we expect to deal with slick rich benefactors who are used to getting their own way by hook or by crook.
There is a massive opportunity for our game in the coming 10 years or so and what really depresses me is that it is ill-prepared to seize it. Anyway I could go on about this subject all day and as usual once I've started I found it hard to stop but I'll draw a line here and don't blame anyone who thought TLDR.