Sydney Colts - 2015

[formerflanker]

The Jarse-o-meter has been fired up, and based on the limited information available, using the SWAG algorithm it is predicting the following:

I realise I'm exposing my limited rugby education, but what is a SWAG algorithm?

 

[Hugh Jarse]

Agree with all but one. I will take Manly over M2B's
Wishing all the Clubs the very best.
Blow the whistle Ref Sir.

Fixed

 

[Hugh Jarse]

I realise I'm exposing my limited rugby education, but what is a SWAG algorithm?

You had to ask. It has taken me some time to get to the point where I sort of understand it enough to build it into the visual basic coding modules of the spreadsheet I use. Some of these I have just copied the relevant subroutines directly off a couple of geeky Excel VB forums without fully understanding how the actual boolean logic really works. Blind faith is useful sometimes. Here goes:

SWAG is an analytical technique that is endorsed by many of the worlds leading business schools, although it is not always acknowledged as such due to the degree of Intellectual Property that is associated with the first ever SWAG algorithm that belongs to Uppsala University Faculty of Business Management, and the fact that they all have a vested interest in promoting their own version of that technique/algorithm. Sometimes you may hear BOTE technique used in lieu of SWAG. The end result is often similar.

Essentially all the factors are fed into the analytical model, with various weighting factors applied, and then the SWAG algorithm uses a lot of mathematical probability theory considering both stochastic and deterministic approaches without ignoring the inherent contradictions in using a slightly mutually exclusive factorial methodology embraced in this dualistic approach. The algorithm also considers the impact of confounding variance and eliminates the possibility of any non-linear regression through a molecular consideration as opposed to a continuous discrete Newtonian spread.

The algorithm also runs the data through some fairly weird Mean Square Weighted Deviation (MSWD) modules before finalising the relative coefficient. The impact of random variables are considered as when the model is assembled, they are assigned a calculated potential distribution outcome factor derived from statistical inference and Sandyman's estimation theory using some really complicated vector spread distribution consideration that I really don't understand how it works. This occurs before any MSWD consideration. The final outcome is achieved through comparison of those coefficients driving which of the input data sets is the preferred solution.

I'm not sure that I have explained exactly how the SWAG algorithm works in layman's speak, but it is a fairly complicated concept. If the model is built properly with the right weighted input factors applied, while not always correct, over multiple scenarios, the SWAG algorithm will produce a statistically significant correct outcome.

 

[formerflanker]

You had to ask.

Phew. I thought you were taking the piss for a moment there.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_Wild-Ass_Guess

 

[couldabeen]

Laffan Cup, slightly OT
Just for the record, and because information on the Laffan CUp is harder to find than a proud English Cricketer, Sydney Uni won the Laffan CUp on the weekend.

 

[GTPIH]

@HJ, you had me right up until "You had to ask."

 

[Hugh Jarse]

Wicks teams for Eastwood.
COLTS 1
1. Cambell Shearer
2. Nick Koutsoukais
3. Jackson Parkes
4. Patrick Kava
5. Beau Petterson
6. Dan Hughes
7. Jum Woodhill
8. Hame Tali
9. Tom Wong
10. Nic Andrews
11. Charlie McKay
12. Moa Meliepo
13. Tom Molloy
14. Kieran Knight
15. Ben O'Donnell

Colts 2
1. Latham Takau
2. Matt Serhorn
3. Ezra Mololo
4. Sam Ellerton
5. Kieran Bonin
6. Cameron Mee
7. Sam Connor
8. Ryan Powter.
9. Sam Horwitz
10. Kingston Day
11. Ned Robinson
12. Hamish Gordon
13. Nico Siale.
14. Harison Gould
15. Ronald Streeter-Mason.

Colts 3
1. Sam Matenga
2. Michael Midson
3. Sam Hunt
4. Dan Kilalea
5. Jonah Taylor
6. Lewis Mayberry
7. Jordan Iremia
8. Zach Wheeler
9. Patrick Connor
10. Tevita Funa
11. Sam Carter
12. Jordan Holz
13. Michael Haines
14. Ben Marks
15. Tau Penatani

http://www.randwickrugby.com.au/rugby/grade/teams/4500-round-1-teams-v-eastwood-1

Lots of Rockstars missing due to U20 duty.
Several expected names missing - possibly due to Team Rehab?
4 of last years Colts 1 Premiers back: O'Donnell, Knight, Shearer, Koutsoukais.

 

[Hugh Jarse]

Marlins
http://www.manlyrugby.com.au/

COLTS 1
1 Rohan Hedge
2 Cyprus Tutunoa
3 Scott White (capt)
4 James Gourley
5 Gus Verhoevan
6 Kerry Simpson
7 Felix Maddison
8 Scott Williams
9 James Taefotu
10 Mat Arnold
11 Austin Osagie
12 Tom Morgan
13 Sione Afu
14 Tom Crisp
15 Jed Ibbotson

Colts 2
1 Mitch Beattie
2 Liam Routledge
3 Wes Thomas
4 Jordan Kennedy
5 Van Stewart
6 Kieran Hedley
7 Matt Schofield
8 Liam Ryan
9 Dante Otto
10 Ben Crerar
11 Op Takonok
12 Brad Clarke (capt)
13 Ryan Prentice
14 Harry Binsted
15 Tom Langrell

Colts 3
1 Erik Ah Kam
2 Isa Abdoullah
3 James Campbell
4 Kevin O'Connor
5 Daylee Sumner
6 Sam Coram
7 Junior Amituanai
8 Beau Foketi
9 Sam Payne
10 Louis Dowling
11 Hugo Lumsdaine
12 Harry Lowe
13 Dylan Peppernell
14 Mitch Andrews
15 Laurence Gay

 

[Hugh Jarse]

Penrith Emus
Colts 1
1. Edwin Stokes
2. Dennis Tovia
3. Sinapati Pati
4. Samuel Hansen
5. Latrell Laupola
6, Jade Peau
7. Lisati Tualapapa
8. Thorne Piilua
0. alipate Lausii
10. Simeone Moelasi
11. Tevita Mahe
12. Bernie Saleve
13. John Taefu
14. Joshua Goode
15. James Papu

Colts 2
1. Daniel Vavega
2. Tametai Lomax
3. Zeke Mafi
4. Jack Fleetwood
5. Hamish Milne
6. Hamish Matthews
7. Delahoya Manu
8. Sati Taufa
9. Sam Limbrey
10. Desmond Tipene
11. Poasa Nakairvalu
12. Ezekial Seia
13. Beni Valu
14. Jayden Mafi
15. Mitchell Korol

Colts 3 (Great to see the Emus with 3 Colts teams)
1. Chayse Taranto
2. Trey Ropata
3. Assaad Collins
4, Tevita Muller
5. Brayden Furrer
6. Epati Sale
7. Ricky Mau
8. Leslie Kini
8. Jy Clapham
10. Mitchell Austin
11. Waha Grey
12. Ezra Kemp
13. George Mafi
14. Nehoa Tuifua
15. Ben Meyer

Sydney University
Colts 1
1. Jack Bliss
2. Declan Moore
3. Alexander Masima
4. Nick de Crespigny
5. Calvin Mulipola
6. Lincoln Whiteley
7. Hugh Summerhayes
8. Joshue Schwager
9. Nick Duffy
10. Christian Kagiassis
11. Cillan Burke
12. Will Davies
13. Will McDonnell
14. James Kane
15. Justin Fourie

Colts 2
1. Will Ridley
2. James Margan
3. Austin Black
4. Lachlan Argiris
5. Sean O'Byrne
6. George Corias
7. Stuart Mill
8. Aidan Brown
9. Alexander Jackman
10. Sam Renton
11. Sam Nery
12. Banjo Travers
13. Sam Harris
14. Thomas Del Vecchio
15. Justin Fish

Colts 3
1. Nathan Pickering
2. Jay Spencer
3. Jackson Smith
4. Liam Faogali
5. Lisiate Vaihu
6. Solomona Iosefa
7. Lewis Oswald
8. Romado Tuigmala
9. Daniel Calavassy
10. Sean Cross
11. Todd Owen
12. Oliver Maxwell
13. Tim McCutcheon
14. Ahmad Elbatoory
15. Hamish Lorang

Lots of U20 Rockstars not available for Colts Duty
Only 1 returning from last years Colts 1 GF loss to Wicks (Davies).
Only 2 returning from last years Colts 2 GF Premiers (Schwager, Kagiassis)

http://www.sydneyunirugby.com.au/team-list.html

 

[Monty Python]

Wicks teams for Eastwood.
http://www.randwickrugby.com.au/rugby/grade/teams/4500-round-1-teams-v-eastwood-1.

Eastwood Colts teams for Wicks (at Latham Park):
http://www.eastwoodrugby.com.au/civicrm/mailing/view?reset=1&id=248

 

[Tah and feathered]

Southern districts 1st colts
1 Milan Papilii
2 Oliver Takiveikata
3 Nathan Ford
4 Josh Lyons
5 luke Mralovic
6 Henry Robertson
7 Tom Doyle
8 Rahboni Vosayaco
9 Jake Labrano
10 Shane Doyle
11Gordon Enari
12 Nathan MCIlveen
13 Trent Winterstein
14 Jack Conen
15 Angus McGrath

 

[Piller]

Southern Districts 2nd 3rd and Under18


Colts 2
1. Evander Filemu
2. Gareth Woods
3. Joey Iata
4. Dylan Turner Williams
5. Pat Kuenzle
6. T.B.A
7. Kurt Rumsay
8. Khalid Alfas
9. James Whelan
10. Corey Willis
11. Callum Quinn
12. Tylah Pritchard
13. Kazius Filemu
14. George Cardassilaris
15. Tom Evans

Colts 3
1. Lachie King
2. Bennet James
3. Sammy Iuta
4. Nathaniel Leon
5. Mitch Whittet
6. Josh Simpson
7. Dawie Erasmus
8. Lochie Hennessey
9. Kruze Leach
10. Locky Walsh
11. William Blake
12. Nobby Rapata
13. Lewis Pickering
14. Franklin Calgulay
15. Andrew Kaine

Under 18
1. Tom Swiderski
2. Shaun Thornton
3. Willem Thompson
4. Brandon Kemp
5. Jacob Fetui
6. Evan Jenkins
7. Ryan Brown
8. Devante Faanoi
9. Ben Lewis
10. Daniel Bell
11. Brodie Ford
12. Fatu Faanu
13. William Latu
14. Aaron Walker
15. Cooper Harris

I think there are more than 30 who are under 18, but some are push up to 3rd and 2nd and some may not be playing at all?

 

[Colts '15]

Gordon 1st Colts (As of Gordon Website):

1. Nathan Kelly

2. James Wilkinson

3. Sean Dillon

4. Jack Margin

5. Angus McClelland

6. Nic Burkett

7. Jake Pierce

8. James Lough

9. Alex Barker

10. David Smerdon

11. Ben Butler

12. James Dainton

13. Josh Mitchell

14. Kurtis Quinn

15. Andrew Bligh

Res:
James Grant
Brett Van Zyl
Sam Tabuatamata

 

[Dingasden]

Disappointing to see Rats forfeit u18s & 3rds colts for first round. I do hope they can build on their current numbers.
Anyone know what Newport Colts numbers are including 18s?

 

[Crashy]

Just had a squizz at the under 18 game between Manly and Parramatta at Bantry Bay Oval. My god Parra has some big boppers....
I really like the idea of this district based U18 comp as its such an important feeder for Colts and thus provides a steady flow of players into grade.
Parra were up 7 nil 30 mins in after I left.

 

[Dingasden]

Souths played Wests u18s. Wests had a big pack & played usual forwards game. Souths moved ball well to edges. Things were fairly even until Wests lost their halfback after about 20 min sent off for raising finger to ref after being sin binned for late tackle. Discipline? Souths won by 30+ to 5. All of Souths tries scored by wingers.

 

[Hugh Jarse]

Round 1 Results

W. McMahon Memorial Shield - Colts 1
Gordon 29 Eastern Suburbs 19
Randwick 63 Eastwood 10
Southern Districts 33 Warringah 15
Sydney University 113 Penrith 0
Manly 33 Parramatta 21
Northern Suburbs 44 West Harbour 5

Shell Trophy - Colts 2
Gordon 17 Eastern Suburbs 17
Randwick 22 Eastwood 10
Southern Districts 55 Warringah 17
Sydney University 36 Penrith 0
Manly 29 Parramatta 19
Northern Suburbs 34 West Harbour 5

Bill Simpson Shield - Colts 3
Gordon 27 Eastern Suburbs 15
Randwick 24 Eastwood 10
Southern Districts 28 Warringah 0 (Game Forfeit)
Sydney University 58 Penrith 0
Manly 17 Parramatta 5
Northern Suburbs 38 West Harbour 3

Round 2 Games - 28 March
Eastwood v Gordon
Warringah v Northern Suburbs
Penrith v Manly
West Harbour v Randwick
Parramatta v Southern Districts
Eastern Suburbs v Sydney University

 

[Brett Kenna]

Re Parra v Manly U18's, Parra kicked a late penalty goal to win 15-12, after a fight back from Manly. A number of the Parra boys went on to
have a run in 3rds and 2nds due to still a number of Parra players being unavailable. Over all a reasonable effort from all the Parra boys. Alot closer than last years. Once the injuries are sorted, they should continue to improve and give all teams a run for their money.

 

[Gibbo]

That Uni Penrith scoreline is horrible for all involved.
Good to see Gordon 4s Colts had a win too

 

[couldabeen]

That Uni Penrith scoreline is horrible for all involved.
Good to see Gordon 4s Colts had a win too

The good news for Penrith is that they had three teams. All three games started with Penrith doing well, but as with last year, they fell away at the end. They have plenty of big boppas with all the skills, but defence falls away as tiredness sets in.
Somewhere back in this thread someone suggested that Penrith take the bye in 1sts and compete in 2nd and 3rds. I like the idea and think it would be good for the short and long term of Penrith Rugby and therefore Shute Shield. It also looked to me that Penrith could put an 18's team together.
Anyhow, hang in there Emus.