SuperRugby Waratahs V Crusaders, Rd 10 2012

[rugbysmartarse]

Thought I would start this match thread to put all the injury and potential lineup talk in one spot.

With Horne suspended, Alcock out, Foley and Ryan out, Elsom now available, and Dean Mumm off to Exeter, could there be some changes in the forwards makeup? Also, how would you line up the remaining backs?

 

[Gnostic]

On relative performances this year the Crusaders might be eyeing off that record score they set against the Tahs a few years back and thinking it could do with an update.

The lack of depth in the squad especially in the backs is going to seriously limit the choices.

Pack will be largely unchanged except for Alcock.

Barnes will drop to 15 and Hangers to 10. Kicking will have to be 100% precise (as they won't have much of a running game without Foley to be elusive and set a few up. Barnes is a shadow of his form from 2009 and Hangers is a good depth squad member but that is it. 13 is a big question, will Kingston move one spot in or will AAC (Adam Ashley-Cooper). I would suggest AAC (Adam Ashley-Cooper) will move in one but who will take his wing?

Crusaders won't be very worried about this game.

 

[AngrySeahorse]

Tahs can win this only if they play like they have never played before. I have seen no such signs that they are capable of performing in such a way that they could beat the current Saders side.

....or if the Saders play their worst game ever or get complacent - this is also something I can't see happening.

Saders by 13+ at least (being kind to the Tahs). I would be genuinely gobsmacked if the Tahs win or even get close to the Saders.

 

[laps]

If the Crusaders play absolutely dreadful...

They will still beat the Warratahs.

 

[royboi]

On relative performances this year the Crusaders might be eyeing off that record score they set against the Tahs a few years back and thinking it could do with an update.

The lack of depth in the squad especially in the backs is going to seriously limit the choices.

Pack will be largely unchanged except for Alcock.

Barnes will drop to 15 and Hangers to 10. Kicking will have to be 100% precise (as they won't have much of a running game without Foley to be elusive and set a few up. Barnes is a shadow of his form from 2009 and Hangers is a good depth squad member but that is it. 13 is a big question, will Kingston move one spot in or will AAC (Adam Ashley-Cooper). I would suggest AAC (Adam Ashley-Cooper) will move in one but who will take his wing?

Crusaders won't be very worried about this game.

AAC (Adam Ashley-Cooper) will go to 13 and Pretorius can go on the wing. Pretorius has played there before, i remember he scored a double or something last season playing on the wing

 

[Riptide]

The Crusaders haven't been great this season. They had their first really good game of the season last week (admittedly quite ominous) when the Hurricanes kicked so ineptly so i think the Prozac can be put away for the moment. Tahs have a decent shot.

The Crusaders breakdown work has not been generating the quick ball we are accustomed to seeing from them.

 

[rugbysmartarse]

Team I'd like to see:
Robbo, TPN, kepu, timani, douglas, Elsom, Dennis, Paul, mckibbon, hangers, paka, Barnes, tc, Kingston, AAC (Adam Ashley-Cooper).

Crazy right? Figure the best chance here is to play the worlds slowest most boring game plan of kicking long and deep, chase hard and flat, and dominate the set piece. mckibbon is kicking at 80%, and our backs are getting poor penetration.

 

[Badger]

Now that Pakalani is fit, he should be in the match day 22 somewhere. I saw him play for Southern Districts on the weekend and he looked good.

Most years, it seems the Tahs go OK until they play the Crusaders and then fall in a heap. So here's hoping they don't get towelled again. But it will still be good to one team playing good rugby.

 

[Lee Grant]

mckibbon is kicking at 80%, and our backs are getting poor penetration.

89.5% to be exact.

Anybody else think that the Tahs backs are playing like the Wobs backs were?

In the first, Barnes can be a problem, when he plays at 10; in the second, he can be a solution, when he plays at 12. Weird.

Anybody else think that the Tahs should play more often as they did in the first 26 seconds on Saturday night? There was a go forwardnesss and quick ballness and backing upness about them in that period.

They reminded me of .... the Crusaders.

More of that please and if they still lose, too bad. I just want to see the effort. In particular I don't want to see fellows standing still off the ruck and the scrummie passing at them. I want to see them running onto the ball passed in front of them.

Backs or forwards - doesn't matter.
.

 

[Badger]

I remember at the start of 2011, members of the team stressed that they had bulked up during the off season to match it with the bigger packs going around in the tournament. However, it appeared that they sacrificed aerobic fitness for bulk as the team looked to tire easily.

It looks to have carried into this year when I recall seeing the players, in particular the forwards, amble into position late in each half on occasions. In such situations, they would struggle to do much running onto the ball.

But, yes, I would love to see the style of play we saw in the opening minute of the Rebels match, even if it doesn't come off all the time.

 

[Lee Grant]

In the periods of play I was thinking about it wasn't later in the game and fitness wasn't the problem. The team thinking of individual players, especially the forwards, was not up to the mark. They were a couple of metres too far back and moved only when the ball was passed.

I hope that Kafe has his chalkboard out on the matter, come Thursday, then compare it to the Crusaders efforts and how they step back sometimes, even run backwards, to come forward.

McKibbin was hardly blameless either. I can't imagine that old Tahs scrummies like Hipwell, Catchpole, or NFJ, would let the forwards do that without ripping a strip off them. McKibbin should boss them more, then pass in front of them.
.

 

[Hawko]

Team I'd like to see:
Robbo, TPN, kepu, timani, douglas, Elsom, Dennis, Paul, mckibbon, hangers, paka, Barnes, tc, Kingston, AAC (Adam Ashley-Cooper).

Crazy right? Figure the best chance here is to play the worlds slowest most boring game plan of kicking long and deep, chase hard and flat, and dominate the set piece. mckibbon is kicking at 80%, and our backs are getting poor penetration.

I don't think Dennis should play 7, good though he is he does not have the experience to play 7 against Todd - he'd always be a metre behind. Might work against a Saffer pack but not a Kiwi pack. Elsom is weeks away from starting, more than 25 minutes and his hamstring will be cooked. So the backrow has to be Dennis, Palu and Jenkins. I like Timani for Mumm, but he must go out with instructions to play absolutely flat out for as long as he can, with Mumm to come on when he's toast. The forward contest will be massive; I'm already salivating and I think if we can hold parity or get slightly on top then we will be right in the game despite our backs' woes.

With the guys available that backline is the strongest we can put out and only Hangers is a defensive liability. Attacking-wise its a bit limited, but what else can we do? That back three is potentially very good on attack so we need a gameplan that says go wide regularly with Carter to run at the line hard for variation and long kicking to the corners with massive chasing to box them in. (Yes, I know that will be a first for some players.) We should abandon midfield bombs, the next productive one will be the first. Box kicking should be as a last resort to prevent a turnover, no other reason.

This week I would start Pretorius with a license to run. This will provide more attacking spark, which we lack as a result of Foley's injury and Barnes' form. If Barnes gets injured, McKibben comes in with Pretorius going to a wing. I'd put Betham, BKH and McK on the bench with a 4:3 split. There are too many back problems to use 5:2 this week, I'd have Lopeti, Mumm, Ulugia and Tilse as the four. We will miss Alcock, though how someone with an infected appendix will be right for next week I don't know.

This game is not lost. Comments about expecting a points record loss are deluded, that pack except for Jenkins would not look out of place in gold, but we have to lift our game to the highest levels for the full 80 and as others have posted start running the ball at pace, not catching it flat footed. URGENCY has to be the watchword for this week, if you give the Crusaders time they will crucify you.

We did win last week even though we switched off for long periods. But the key to success this week is playing every moment of the game like it was our last. That's the only way to knock off the Crusaders on Sunday.

 

[Richo]

My guess is that conservativism will reign and Foley will start McKibbin for his kicking. I think the only way we have a chance in this game is if we chance our arm. Even if our defense is spectacular, the Saders will put on a couple of tries.

 

[Troy]

They reminded me of .... the Crusaders.


.

Must say LG that's pure gold likening the Tahs to the Crusaders..

Don't get me wrong I'll be shouting on the Tahs come Sunday, but they're not the 80 min team the Crusaders are!

 

[fatprop]

I think we are in trouble for this match and I reckon we should go out all guns blazing

Robinson,
TPN,
Kepu,
Timani,
Douglas,
Jenkins
Dennis,
Palu
Pretorious
Barnes,
Pakalani,
Carter,
Kingston,
Trist
AAC (Adam Ashley-Cooper)

Three "fullbacks" for solid kick return, Kingston is a good 13 and have a go

But I expect Foley to move into loss mitigation mode and beef up the centres defensively (Barnes & Carter or Carter & AAC (Adam Ashley-Cooper)), play tight and try to hold on

 

[Richo]

I think you're right, fp. On all fronts, unfortunately.

We need to win this game, not lose respectability.

 

[fatprop]

Must say LG that's pure gold likening the Tahs to the Crusaders..

Don't get me wrong I'll be shouting on the Tahs come Sunday, but they're not the 80 min team the Crusaders are!

The Tahs can play "like" the Crusaders for 10 mins and match the Crusaders for about 40 (not continually) and get splattered for the other 30.

 

[RedsHappy]

Parachuting in from Brisbane for a moment....geez, surveying this thread I don't think I've ever seen Tahs' posters so downcast and pessimistic re their team's prospects vs a top side. You have a much better 2012 forwards pack than the Reds' 2010 and 2011 ones that ended up being part of a team that beat the Cru 3 times in a row, twice in 2011, and IIRC both Carter and McCaw played in the latter 2 of those games.

The Cru are at one of their worst overall w-l positions at this stage in the comp for many a year. If the Tahs - with the benefit of a home game - can just play at the peak of their 2012 performances for the majority of the game, why can't you stand a good chance of victory?

You don't seem to have built great confidence in Foley, 9 Rounds in.

 

[Joe Mac]

Im also not sure why we are seeing all this doom and gloom. I think this is the Tah's best chance to beat the Cru in many a season...

 

[Braveheart81]

I think everyone is just a bit downcast.

After a record run of having the same starting XV for 3 or 4 games in a row, the Tahs are now missing three from the starting XV and four from the 22.

I'm still trying to work out how Paddy Ryan did such a serious injury to his foot. It just seems like a hard area to damage.

I'm disappointed by Rob Horne. That was just stupidity personified.

It's great that Rocky is now available for selection. It's just a shame he doesn't play in the backs.

Losing Chris Alcock is a big loss. His last two games have been superb. Amongst the forwards at least, he is our biggest improver. He has gone from being serviceable to being one of the better 7s in Australia. After Pocock and Hooper, I don't think it would be unrealistic to bracket him with the next group of 7s.