Super Rugby Pacific 2025

[JRugby2]

You make good points, and if this wasn't social media, I'd have to admit my calculations were incorrect.

Never admit defeat, attack attack attack.

 

[John S]

Never admit defeat, attack attack attack.

Deny, Deflect, Destroy?

 

[zer0]

Work is slow waiting for others, so, following on from @Wilson's effort above, I've noodled over to American sports and adapted something called the simple rating system (SRS). It's a rating system based on two components:

1. The average points differential over the season
2. The strength of schedule

It produces two metrics, the SRS and the strength of schedule (SoS). Both of these are measured in points relative to the statistical average for the competition. Or, relative to the hypothetical average team.

1. SRS estimates how many points better/worse a team is that the average team, adjusted by the SoS
2. SoS estimates how tough the schedule has been for each team, as measured by the SRS

For the SRS, if your team has a score of +7, then it means you're 7-points better than the average team. SRS at -3 means you're 3-points worse. The closer your SRS is to 0 the closer you are to being the average team. For the SoS, it measures how good their opponents have been. So if your team has an SoS of +5 then it means your opponents have typically been 5-points better than average.

The more big brained members of the class may have noticed that the two rely on each other. i.e., SRS is dependent on the SoS which is dependent on the opponents SRS, which is dependent on the SoS etc... It's an iterative process until the numbers basically level out. Further reading: a blog explaining it using the NFL.

Results are below.

So, the SRS says that the Chiefs are currently +10.4 points better than the average team while the Drua are -10.5 points worse. By these ratings it would say that the Chiefs are 2.1 point favourites against the Crusaders (Chiefs SRS - Crusaders SRS = 10.4 - 8.3 = 2.1). To use the actual up-coming matches:

Crusaders are 6.16 point favourites against the Hurricanes
Chiefs are 18.41 point favourites against the Waratahs
Moana are 3.92 point favourites against the Blues
Highlanders are 7.61 point favourites against the Drua
Reds are 6.29 point favourites against the Brumbies

Overall I'd say the current strucutre looks about right with the top and bottom three and the big scrap from 4-8, where there is <5 SRS points between Moana and the Brumbies. In other words, games between everyone here are probably going to be particulatly close one score games.

Meanwhile, the SoS says the Blues have had the toughest schedule so far, having faced opponents that are typically 4.01 points better than average. This will be because 3/7 of their games have been against the Chiefs and Crusaders (the only team to do so atm, I believe). Meanwhile, the Brumbies have faced opponents that are typically 3.46 points worse than average, having only faced one above average team (Chiefs).

The SoS only considers performance and doesn't consider venue or travel, which can be important for Super Rugby. For e.g., a travel schedule of Perth -> Auckland -> Fiji -> Sydney would be viewed the same Wellington -> Hamilton -> Wellington -> Sydney.

Finally, and perhaps most importantly, the Blues SRS (-1.56) is better than the Brumbies SRS (-2.61). Suggesting that, when adjusted for their schedule strength, the Blues have performed slightly better overall this season and that the Breez are coasting by on easy games.

tldr: Blues > Bumbreez.

 

[Wilson]

Paints a dire picture for the tahs, particularly once you factor in where the games they have left are going to be played.

 

[LeCheese]

The SoS only considers performance and doesn't consider venue or travel, which can be important for Super Rugby. For e.g., a travel schedule of Perth -> Auckland -> Fiji -> Sydney would be viewed the same Wellington -> Hamilton -> Wellington -> Sydney.

I'm reliably informed this bumps the Force's SoS up to +4,000,000

 

[Dismal Pillock]

surely a golden chance for an aus team to win the whole thing in 2025. Chiefs looking brainless, Cantabs struggling to fire under dingus new coach, Canes ditto, and dipshit Blues 1 win all year.

Reds tracking well, NSFW jekyll and amazeballz hyde, BumBreeze their usual despicable selves.....

Only issue is if you dont finish ahead of the Cantabs on the ladder then you'll have to journey to the cold dark heart of The Death Star in the frozen pitch black depths of winter. Which is Operation Certain Loss.

 

[Strewthcobber]

Pretty critical day today. Reds win and they go Top 2 with their destiny in their own hands.

Brumbies win, and it's status quo, with a bunch of Aussie teams playing to see who loses a semi in NZ

 

[Dan54]

I still can't work out who will be in finals, I guessing we can take it that the present top 4 will be there. So who else is up in air I reckon.

 

[Strewthcobber]

I still can't work out who will be in finals, I guessing we can take it that the present top 4 will be there.

I really don't like the new finals system. Come 4th, lose a final and you probably still make the semi

 

[Derpus]

surely a golden chance for an aus team to win the whole thing in 2025. Chiefs looking brainless, Cantabs struggling to fire under dingus new coach, Canes ditto, and dipshit Blues 1 win all year.

Reds tracking well, NSFW jekyll and amazeballz hyde, BumBreeze their usual despicable selves.....

Only issue is if you dont finish ahead of the Cantabs on the ladder then you'll have to journey to the cold dark heart of The Death Star in the frozen pitch black depths of winter. Which is Operation Certain Loss.

I doubt any of the Aus sides would be able to beat Chiefs or Cantabs away yet.

 

[HogansHeros]

I doubt any of the Aus sides would be able to beat Chiefs or Cantabs away yet.

I didnt think the Tahs could beat the Chiefs at home, happy to be proven wrong.

 

[waiopehu oldboy]

"Injured Hurricanes first-five Brett Cameron is heading to Australia for a test that could pave the way for his shock Super Rugby Pacific return."

Stuff

www.stuff.co.nz

God knows they need him.

 

[schmidt it in]

Super Rugby Crowds:

I have been keeping track of all the crowds for Aussie home games this season.

Currently the Australian Super Rugby sides have an average crowd of 12,217.

Out of the 16 home matches we have seen in Australia this season 4 have no published figures:

- Brumbies vs Force @ Canberra (Round 2)
- Waratahs vs Force @ Sydney (Round 4)
- Reds vs Force @ Brisbane (Round 7)
- Brumbies vs Highlanders @ Canberra (Round 7).

Can't help but notice figures aren't getting published when the Force are playing, must not be a big drawcard for casual fans.

5 Highest Crowds so far (2025):
- 20,572 - Waratahs vs Brumbies
- 20,072 - Reds vs Waratahs
- 16,150 - Waratahs vs Drua
- 16,034 - Waratahs vs Highlanders
-14,278 - Waratahs vs Chiefs


Compared to the 2024 season:

The average for Australian Super Rugby sides in 2024 (not including Super Round figures) was 10,448.

5 Highest for 2024:
- 17,782 - Reds vs Brumbies
- 16,725 - Reds vs Chiefs
- 16,325 - Reds vs Blues
- 14,593 - Reds vs Waratahs
- 13,533 - Waratahs vs Highlanders

 

[waiopehu oldboy]

Great work @schmidt it in. Good to see things getting better off-field as well as on & long may it continue.

Edit: great work also @zer0, I somehow missed it until just now. Any chance of an update taking this week's results into account? Also, do you do any actual work while you're *at work* or just crunch Rugby stats?

 

[schmidt it in]

Great work @schmidt it in. Good to see things getting better off-field as well as on & long may it continue.

Here is a comparison to some other leagues averages.

	Super Rugby (Aus teams)	A-League	NRL	AFL
2024	10,448	8,589	20,605	38,344
2025 (to date)	12,217	8,965	19,302	41,040
Percentage change	+15.23%	+4.28%	-6.53%	+6.79%

Obvisously these seasons aren't done so averages will change as they continue, but Super Rugby is growing and it is great to see.

Source for AFL, NRL and A-League crowds - https://www.austadiums.com/

 

[waiopehu oldboy]

You mean to tell me that crowds are down for ThE gReAtEsT gAmE eVeR iNvEnTeD? Who's gonna break the news to Vossy, Gouldy etc etc?

 

[schmidt it in]

You mean to tell me that crowds are down for ThE gReAtEsT gAmE eVeR iNvEnTeD? Who's gonna break the news to Vossy, Gouldy etc etc?

Haha yes so far in the season they are a little down. Magic Round does a lot to boost the crowds and that is yet to happen this season.

 

[waiopehu oldboy]

Zarn Sullivan got through 80 minutes of Hawks Bay Club footy yesterday so must be close to running out for Loss Bleus again.

 

[Strewthcobber]

@schmidt it in what's the 2024 average ex the Rebels?

 

[Crashy]

you'd imagine with the Reds / NSW game coming up, that may boost the average a bit. You'd think they'd have to get 30k to that one.
Tahs also have Saders at home which will draw a big crowd.
Brumbies have return game vs Tahs at home.