Super Rugby Pacific 2025
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Strewthcobber
David Codey (61)
Opta's club rugby stats page is a pretty amazing resource for comparing players and teams across competitions
theanalyst.com
Club Rugby Stats Hub 2024-25 | Opta Analyst
Our Club Rugby Stats for the 2024-25 season includes individual player and team advanced stats broken down by category.
theanalyst.com
Wilson
John Eales (66)
Great breakdown of why this season has been so much better to watch from the QRU's head of data science:
The raw data that proves Super Rugby Pacific is currently a cut above
To appreciate how unique the 2025 Super Rugby Pacific season has been, we need to look at other seasons and other competitions.
www.rugbypass.com
Strewthcobber
David Codey (61)
Even better, I reckon the length of games has considerably reduced too, so ball-out-of-play time is significantly less
Wilson
John Eales (66)
Yeah, while the ball-in-play time is improved I'm not sure it's massively different from other seasons of comps, but the dead time is largely gone. That's the real secret to improving the product without necessarily sacrificing the set pieces that make our game unique.
KOB1987
John Eales (66)
That was actually what i was getting at - ball in play time divided by the total game length would be the measure to use.
Wilson
John Eales (66)
So we've hit the half way mark with every team having played 7 games (8 for the Force), this where the teams stand:
From here, we can make some pretty good guesses about who will make the finals. Based on previous seasons I think it'll take at least 6 wins to get to 6th (but it won't guarantee it), and the finals cut off will be somewhere around 30 points (probably above it). Here's how I think it will shake out
Will make the finals:
(it would take a cataclysmic decline for any of these teams to miss out and they're all in good to great form)
Chiefs: Odds on favourite to top the comp now, there's a pretty good chance they don't drop another game. They've got a dream run home with their only trip out of NZ next weeks game in Sydney.
Crusaders: Probably the one chance to knock the Chiefs out of top spot from here by beating them in their return fixture in round 13. They have a slightly tougher run home with a final round clash against the Brumbies in Canberra looking crucial for placings.
Reds: We'll know more about where the Reds and Brumbies sit when they play next week, but with a win and 2 bps more the Reds are in a better position then the Brumbies at this stage. They do have a tougher run home, but it's probably no harder then the first half of the season was for them, with a fair few players due back from injury over the next few weeks to help. They can really set themselves up to come home with a wet sail if they get wins in their next 2 games (Brumbies and Blues at suncorp, with a bye in between).
Brumbies: As above, next week will tell us a lot about where they sit. Have had one of the tougher starts to the season though, so could be set to come home strong. They'll be happy to play most of their remaining games at home, particularly as temperatures drop and Canberra becomes less hospitable.
Should make the finals:
(tracking well and everything is in their control, but they need to stay on top of things)
Western Force: One more game played then the rest makes them a bit harder to place, but they'll back themselves to take 2/3 of their home games (Brumbies, tahs, Hurricanes) at least. With a couple more bonus points it should be enough to squeak into the 6, anymore wins then 2 and they'll be in a very good place.
Moana: Not a lot between them and the Cane's but Moana have both the form and a better ride home. There's an awful lot of self belief in this team right now and they should be able to push on for their maiden finals appearance from here. A final round clash with the Hurricanes could decide who makes it.
Could make the finals:
(up against it but there is a path to success, past performance lends them a bit more credibility)
Hurricanes: Easily could have been in Should (would've been if they had beaten the Blues) but they haven't got the easiest run home (trips to Perth, Canberra and Brisbane, games against Chiefs and Crusaders), and they just don't inspire a lot of confidence right now. Maybe a returning Cashmore at 10 will make a difference, but they look vulnerable. If they can pick up a couple of wins then the final round clash with Moana will be box office.
Blues: If they weren't the defending champs you'd probably rule them out already, but they have the firepower to come home strong. Can't afford to lose many, but the close nature of most of their losses means their for and against is still ok and they've got a good supply of BPs. Losses to Moana would probably block their path to the 6.
Won't make the finals:
(the wheels are coming off or were never really on. Nothing is impossible, but I wouldn't turn down a good deal on a June holiday if I was them)
tahs: Maybe controversial given they're still in the top 6, but they've got a terrible points difference which could get close to -100 after the Chiefs game next week and minimal bonus points to go with their 4 wins. It's hard to see a path to 30 points for them from here on out, with the 2nd half of the draw much harder then the first. The next 4 weeks (Chiefs at home, Drua away, bye and Brumbies away) could conceivable not net them a point, and break what's left of their spirit.
Highlanders: I originally had them in Could, but then I looked again at their draw - 2 games against the Chiefs and Crusaders just about rules them out without even looking at the rest. A big bp win at home against the Drua next week might give them hope, but I don't think it moves the needle far enough.
Drua: They could conceivably win all their home games (tahs, Reds, Blues, Force), but that will only get them to 5 wins (23 points without more bps). Beyond that their away record is horrendous and only the Highlanders game next week looks a chance. Even if they take those 6 games they're still in need of another 3+ bonus points, but I think they're desperation will end up losing them a crucial game before then. Not sure there chopping and changing selection policy has helped this year.
From here, we can make some pretty good guesses about who will make the finals. Based on previous seasons I think it'll take at least 6 wins to get to 6th (but it won't guarantee it), and the finals cut off will be somewhere around 30 points (probably above it). Here's how I think it will shake out
Will make the finals:
(it would take a cataclysmic decline for any of these teams to miss out and they're all in good to great form)
Chiefs: Odds on favourite to top the comp now, there's a pretty good chance they don't drop another game. They've got a dream run home with their only trip out of NZ next weeks game in Sydney.
Crusaders: Probably the one chance to knock the Chiefs out of top spot from here by beating them in their return fixture in round 13. They have a slightly tougher run home with a final round clash against the Brumbies in Canberra looking crucial for placings.
Reds: We'll know more about where the Reds and Brumbies sit when they play next week, but with a win and 2 bps more the Reds are in a better position then the Brumbies at this stage. They do have a tougher run home, but it's probably no harder then the first half of the season was for them, with a fair few players due back from injury over the next few weeks to help. They can really set themselves up to come home with a wet sail if they get wins in their next 2 games (Brumbies and Blues at suncorp, with a bye in between).
Brumbies: As above, next week will tell us a lot about where they sit. Have had one of the tougher starts to the season though, so could be set to come home strong. They'll be happy to play most of their remaining games at home, particularly as temperatures drop and Canberra becomes less hospitable.
Should make the finals:
(tracking well and everything is in their control, but they need to stay on top of things)
Western Force: One more game played then the rest makes them a bit harder to place, but they'll back themselves to take 2/3 of their home games (Brumbies, tahs, Hurricanes) at least. With a couple more bonus points it should be enough to squeak into the 6, anymore wins then 2 and they'll be in a very good place.
Moana: Not a lot between them and the Cane's but Moana have both the form and a better ride home. There's an awful lot of self belief in this team right now and they should be able to push on for their maiden finals appearance from here. A final round clash with the Hurricanes could decide who makes it.
Could make the finals:
(up against it but there is a path to success, past performance lends them a bit more credibility)
Hurricanes: Easily could have been in Should (would've been if they had beaten the Blues) but they haven't got the easiest run home (trips to Perth, Canberra and Brisbane, games against Chiefs and Crusaders), and they just don't inspire a lot of confidence right now. Maybe a returning Cashmore at 10 will make a difference, but they look vulnerable. If they can pick up a couple of wins then the final round clash with Moana will be box office.
Blues: If they weren't the defending champs you'd probably rule them out already, but they have the firepower to come home strong. Can't afford to lose many, but the close nature of most of their losses means their for and against is still ok and they've got a good supply of BPs. Losses to Moana would probably block their path to the 6.
Won't make the finals:
(the wheels are coming off or were never really on. Nothing is impossible, but I wouldn't turn down a good deal on a June holiday if I was them)
tahs: Maybe controversial given they're still in the top 6, but they've got a terrible points difference which could get close to -100 after the Chiefs game next week and minimal bonus points to go with their 4 wins. It's hard to see a path to 30 points for them from here on out, with the 2nd half of the draw much harder then the first. The next 4 weeks (Chiefs at home, Drua away, bye and Brumbies away) could conceivable not net them a point, and break what's left of their spirit.
Highlanders: I originally had them in Could, but then I looked again at their draw - 2 games against the Chiefs and Crusaders just about rules them out without even looking at the rest. A big bp win at home against the Drua next week might give them hope, but I don't think it moves the needle far enough.
Drua: They could conceivably win all their home games (tahs, Reds, Blues, Force), but that will only get them to 5 wins (23 points without more bps). Beyond that their away record is horrendous and only the Highlanders game next week looks a chance. Even if they take those 6 games they're still in need of another 3+ bonus points, but I think they're desperation will end up losing them a crucial game before then. Not sure there chopping and changing selection policy has helped this year.
waiopehu oldboy
George Smith (75)
Wilson
John Eales (66)
Look, I very nearly did, but two games against Moana and one against the Force means it's more 'in their hands' than most. Games against the tahs and Drua also mean their remaining games are stacked on the bottom half of the table, despite being there themselves.
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waiopehu oldboy
George Smith (75)
I'll wargame it tomorrow (RDO) & see if my maths matches yours.
zer0
John Thornett (49)
A basic strength of schedule measure is the combined record for their remaining opponents.
Moana @ 20-29 (41%)
Force @ 20-22 (48%)
Blues @ 22-21 (51%)
Waratahs @ 27-23 (54%)
Hurricanes @ 29-21 (58%)
Highlanders @ 29-20 (59%)
That bodes well for Moana and Force. Though two of the Moana games are against the Blues, which, as @Wilson said, could decide who qualifies. The Force also have matches against the Hurricanes and Blues, so it's a bit of a scrap for 5 + 6.
Moana @ 20-29 (41%)
Force @ 20-22 (48%)
Blues @ 22-21 (51%)
Waratahs @ 27-23 (54%)
Hurricanes @ 29-21 (58%)
Highlanders @ 29-20 (59%)
That bodes well for Moana and Force. Though two of the Moana games are against the Blues, which, as @Wilson said, could decide who qualifies. The Force also have matches against the Hurricanes and Blues, so it's a bit of a scrap for 5 + 6.
Wilson
John Eales (66)
Travel the other big factor - Drua at home are an entirely different prospect to Drua away. And the same probably goes for the Force to a lesser degree (in both directions). You could even say something similar about the tahs, but that's less a home fortress (though they haven't lost there yet this season) and more about them conceding bonus point losses every time they set foot outside the 2000s. Hosting the tahs looks like a gimme 5 points right now.