Super Rugby 2025 NZ/ Drua/ Moana matches

[Wilson]

I imagine the wins they're looking at (in declining order of likelihood) are: tahs (h), Moana (h), Force (h), Moana (a), Drua (a). They'd probably hope to take at least a point out of any loss in these. Reds and Crusaders games would be assumed losses if you were war gaming it, but neither are impossible and they'd be looking for at least one BP if not two from them. tahs Game would also be a target for a BP win (though final round is a bit weird and you never want to need 5 points from it to make the finals).

If they can get up against Moana this week it gives them a bit of breathing room (bp win would be massive, particularly for conifdence), and if they get a 6+ points out of the next 3 weeks (Moana, Crusaders, Reds) they're a good chance of jumping at least a couple of the tahs, Moana, Canes and Highlanders. That said. if they don't get at least one win in those 3 games they will find it very hard to manage a tricky two week block of a trip to Fiji followed by Moana away - they'll probably have to go all in to get the win in Fiji but then risk being vulnerable the next week like so many sides are.

TLDR, a win this weekend is vital.

 

[waiopehu oldboy]

The five Moana, Drua, Force, and Waratahs matches are all eminently winnable.

True, but they can probably only drop one of them & will likely need three or four bonus points along the way. I'm not saying it's impossible but the path to the finals is pretty narrow.

Anyhoo, Tribe are expecting Sititi back I time for the playoffs. Hasn't resumed contact training yet but likely to do so in the next two or three weeks.

 

[Wilson]

Before their round 14 bye even, which means he should get at least 2 or 3 games in in the regular season and be ready to hit the ground running in the finals

 

[waiopehu oldboy]

The beauty of it is they're stacked with loose forwards so unless there's a run of injuries can ease him back into the setup e.g. off the bench, rest week, start, bye week then decide how & when to best utilise him in the finals. Also keeps the others hungry which isn't a bad thing, either.

 

[waiopehu oldboy]

HURRICANES (1-15): Xavier Numia, Asafo Aumua (co-c), Tyrel Lomax, Caleb Delany, Isaia Walker-Leawere, Brayden Iose, Du'Plessis Kirifi (co-c), Peter Lakai, Cam Roigard, Riley Hohepa, Kini Naholo, Peter Umaga-Jensen, Bailyn Sullivan, Ngatungane Punivai, Ruben Love

Replacements: Raymond Tuputupu, Pouri Rakete-Stones, Pasilo Tosi, Will Tucker, Brad Shields, Ereatara Enari, Callum Harkin, Fatafehi Fineanganofo

CRUSADERS (1-15): Tamaiti Williams, Ioane Moananu, Fletcher Newell, Scott Barrett, Jamie Hannah, Cullen Grace, Ethan Blackadder, Christian Lio-Willie, Noah Hotham, Taha Kemara, Sevu Reece, David Havili (c), Levi Aumua, Chay Fihaki, Will Jordan

Replacements: Matt Moulds, George Bower, Kershawl Skyes-Martin, Antonio Shalfoon, Tom Christie, Mitch Drummond, James O'Connor, Macca Springer

 

[waiopehu oldboy]

BLUES (1-15): Joshua Fusitu'a, Ricky Riccitelli, Angus Ta'avao, Patrick Tuipulotu (c), Josh Beehre, Anton Segner, Dalton Papali'i, Hoskins Sotutu, Finlay Christie, Beauden Barrett, Caleb Clarke, AJ Lam, Rieko Ioane, Mark Tele’a, Corey Evans

Replacements: Kurt Eklund, Mason Tupaea, PJ Sheck, Cam Christie, Adrian Choat, Taufa Funaki, Harry Plummer, Stephen Perofeta

PASIFIKA (1-15): Abraham Pole, Millennium Sanerivi, Feleti Sae-Ta'ufo'ou, Sam Slade, Allan Craig, Miracle Faiilagi, Ardie Savea (c), Semisi Tupou Ta'eiloa, Melani Matavao, Jackson Garden-Bachop, Pepesana Patafilo, Danny Toala, Lalomilo Lalomilo, Kyren Taumoefolau, William Havili

Replacements: Sama Malolo, James Lay, Chris Apoua, Tom Savage, Sione Havili Talitui, Aisea Halo, Patrick Pellegrini, Fine Inisi

 

[zer0]

idk why we're seemingly not allowed to field both Good Christie and Suafoa in the same team.

 

[waiopehu oldboy]

Warm (~17C) & dry but windy (~36k) in wellywood tonight.

 

[Dctarget]

I’m a fan of Havili but (tonight at least) he’s not a good decision maker. Some silly passes and a terrible cross field kick.

 

[Wilson]

Brad Shields has absolutely butchered that one. Could've finished it himself or given it to Naholo to close out, figured Will Jordan was a better option

 

[Wilson]

The Crusaders look determined to lose this one - 2 yellow cards in as many minutes

 

[Wilson]

Canes are technically still in contention, but to not be able to get it done with the better part of 10 minutes against 13 and the game on the line, you may as well write them off now. A deeply unserious finish from last years minor premiers.

 

[waiopehu oldboy]

NGL, that last quarter was giving me flashbacks to my three (?) visits to Wellywood for CruSadists v 'canes matches, all of which we lost.

10/10 for holding them out with two in the bin but minus a few dozen for having two in the bin to begin with esp Shalfoon infringing so soon after EB's card.

Thought ScoBar had easily his best game of the season, will be interested to see what Mils & Mr Boomfa thought...

Canes are technically still in contention, but to not be able to get it done with the better part of 10 minutes against 13 and the game on the line, you may as well write them off now. A deeply unserious finish from last years minor premiers.

Coming on top of last week's fail, too. Whatever happens tonight I think they hang onto seventh* but, yeah, looking a bit wobbly heading into the pointy end.

Edit: * a Clan BP win pushes them down to eighth.

 

[Wilson]

Yeah, it was the complete lack of game smarts that did it for me, the try they scored took them longer than it should've and there just didn't seem to be anyone to take charge. Not too surprising given the number of 10s they've got sitting on the sideline, and maybe one of them returning could change the pictures, but I don't see any capacity to win tight, meaningful games, which is the bulk of their remaining schedule (if they're lucky).

That said, I didn't really expect them to win this game to start with and a bonus point loss isn't a bad return for them, so it's still mostly in their hands.

 

[waiopehu oldboy]

Too many co-captains, maybe?

Also I saw Hohrpa's season kicking success rste was exactly 2/3 after one went over. Can't win championships on the back of a goal-kicking percentage like that.

 

[Wilson]

Maybe, I don't generally have an issue with co-captains, but 4 is pushing it. That said, Kirifi was the only one of them on the field at the end. I do wonder if he's the best choice for it though, as good as he's playing I think he tends to be more focused on his own game and the impact he can bring.

Overall though I think it's more of a playmaker issue, particularly once Roigard goes off. A decent chunk of that is on Hohepa, but I'm not sure Love is helping as much as they need him to.

 

[waiopehu oldboy]

Just wrt Kirifi, I was amazed how quiet a game he was having but kept reminding myself that sooner or later he'd spring to life & sure enough he did. If 'canes had managed to get up I think people would be citing a couple of Kirifi turnovers as turning points.

Agree on Roigard, he's the primary playmaker while he's out there & once he goes off there's really noone taking on that role.

 

[waiopehu oldboy]

The Horsemen Of The Auckpocalypse aka @Dismal Pillock & @zer0 are awfully quiet today...

Too quiet for my liking, you just know they're up to shenanigans...

 

[waiopehu oldboy]

Curtain-raiser to the Super Rugby Aupiki GF almost underway...

 

[Dismal Pillock]

The Horsemen Of The Auckpocalypse aka @Dismal Pillock & @zer0 are awfully quiet today...

View attachment 21472

Too quiet for my liking, you just know they're up to shenanigans...

We spent the morning at the family grave.

The boy Z.Ero started speaking in tongues. I couldn't understand it. I think he may have been summoning The 3rd Goat Ventricle of Balthazar which of course would resurrect the Killdozer as prophesised in the 2003 Blues vs Orange Free State Rd 4 matchday programme.