Super Rugby 2025 NZ/ Drua/ Moana matches

[Wilson]

I'm struggling to see where the minimum four wins & probably necessary BPs are coming from.

I imagine the wins they're looking at (in declining order of likelihood) are: tahs (h), Moana (h), Force (h), Moana (a), Drua (a). They'd probably hope to take at least a point out of any loss in these. Reds and Crusaders games would be assumed losses if you were war gaming it, but neither are impossible and they'd be looking for at least one BP if not two from them. tahs Game would also be a target for a BP win (though final round is a bit weird and you never want to need 5 points from it to make the finals).

If they can get up against Moana this week it gives them a bit of breathing room (bp win would be massive, particularly for conifdence), and if they get a 6+ points out of the next 3 weeks (Moana, Crusaders, Reds) they're a good chance of jumping at least a couple of the tahs, Moana, Canes and Highlanders. That said. if they don't get at least one win in those 3 games they will find it very hard to manage a tricky two week block of a trip to Fiji followed by Moana away - they'll probably have to go all in to get the win in Fiji but then risk being vulnerable the next week like so many sides are.

TLDR, a win this weekend is vital.

 

[waiopehu oldboy]

The five Moana, Drua, Force, and Waratahs matches are all eminently winnable.

True, but they can probably only drop one of them & will likely need three or four bonus points along the way. I'm not saying it's impossible but the path to the finals is pretty narrow.

Anyhoo, Tribe are expecting Sititi back I time for the playoffs. Hasn't resumed contact training yet but likely to do so in the next two or three weeks.

 

[Wilson]

True, but they can probably only drop one of them & will likely need three or four bonus points along the way. I'm not saying it's impossible but the path to the finals is pretty narrow.

Anyhoo, Tribe are expecting Sititi back I time for the playoffs. Hasn't resumed contact training yet but likely to do so in the next two or three weeks.

Before their round 14 bye even, which means he should get at least 2 or 3 games in in the regular season and be ready to hit the ground running in the finals

 

[waiopehu oldboy]

The beauty of it is they're stacked with loose forwards so unless there's a run of injuries can ease him back into the setup e.g. off the bench, rest week, start, bye week then decide how & when to best utilise him in the finals. Also keeps the others hungry which isn't a bad thing, either.

 

[waiopehu oldboy]

HURRICANES (1-15): Xavier Numia, Asafo Aumua (co-c), Tyrel Lomax, Caleb Delany, Isaia Walker-Leawere, Brayden Iose, Du'Plessis Kirifi (co-c), Peter Lakai, Cam Roigard, Riley Hohepa, Kini Naholo, Peter Umaga-Jensen, Bailyn Sullivan, Ngatungane Punivai, Ruben Love

Replacements: Raymond Tuputupu, Pouri Rakete-Stones, Pasilo Tosi, Will Tucker, Brad Shields, Ereatara Enari, Callum Harkin, Fatafehi Fineanganofo

CRUSADERS (1-15): Tamaiti Williams, Ioane Moananu, Fletcher Newell, Scott Barrett, Jamie Hannah, Cullen Grace, Ethan Blackadder, Christian Lio-Willie, Noah Hotham, Taha Kemara, Sevu Reece, David Havili (c), Levi Aumua, Chay Fihaki, Will Jordan

Replacements: Matt Moulds, George Bower, Kershawl Skyes-Martin, Antonio Shalfoon, Tom Christie, Mitch Drummond, James O'Connor, Macca Springer

 

[waiopehu oldboy]

BLUES (1-15): Joshua Fusitu'a, Ricky Riccitelli, Angus Ta'avao, Patrick Tuipulotu (c), Josh Beehre, Anton Segner, Dalton Papali'i, Hoskins Sotutu, Finlay Christie, Beauden Barrett, Caleb Clarke, AJ Lam, Rieko Ioane, Mark Tele’a, Corey Evans

Replacements: Kurt Eklund, Mason Tupaea, PJ Sheck, Cam Christie, Adrian Choat, Taufa Funaki, Harry Plummer, Stephen Perofeta

PASIFIKA (1-15): Abraham Pole, Millennium Sanerivi, Feleti Sae-Ta'ufo'ou, Sam Slade, Allan Craig, Miracle Faiilagi, Ardie Savea (c), Semisi Tupou Ta'eiloa, Melani Matavao, Jackson Garden-Bachop, Pepesana Patafilo, Danny Toala, Lalomilo Lalomilo, Kyren Taumoefolau, William Havili

Replacements: Sama Malolo, James Lay, Chris Apoua, Tom Savage, Sione Havili Talitui, Aisea Halo, Patrick Pellegrini, Fine Inisi

 

[zer0]

idk why we're seemingly not allowed to field both Good Christie and Suafoa in the same team.