Super Rugby 2019 Predictions - Aussie Conference

[Strewthcobber]

Is it technically possible for the Brumbies and Reds to qualify? I think they are the only two teams capable of putting in a finals performance.

Anything's possible after the last couple of results.

Whoever loses tomorrow night is going to do it tough. But the SA and Aus conferences are so close. Still 12/13 teams in it

 

[Silverado]

Is it technically possible for the Brumbies and Reds to qualify? I think they are the only two teams capable of putting in a finals performance.

I'd agree with the Brumbies, but haven't seen anything special from the Reds. On their day any of the Oz teams are capable, but have been falling short when they need to step up

 

[Strewthcobber]

Bookies odds "to make finals" have shifted a bit after the weekend.

Crusaders and Hurricanes are certainties.
Jags and Brumbies are very good chance above 90%
Highlanders, Bulls and Rebels are the next group around 75% chance
Sharks and Stormersaround 60%
Lions around 50%
Tahs at 35%

Reds (15%), Blues and Chiefs not given much chance

 

[Derpus]

Rebels are high up that list given their form.

 

[Strewthcobber]

Two wins from 4 probably is enough to get them there, and they have Sunwolves, and Chiefs at home.

Decent chance v Tahs as well. So it's probably fair enough

 

[RoffsChoice]

Rebels are the next group around 75% chance

vWaratahs, @Crusaders, and vChiefs is not a particularly enjoyable run-in, though.

 

[RoffsChoice]

Copying this over from the Brumbies thread:

Remaining fixtures in Australian Conference finals contenders:​

I know it is still mathematically possible for the Sunwolves to make the playoffs, but I will disregard them for this.​

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Brumbies (6 wins, 6 losses):Average 4.75 wins per opponent. Expected points from final games: 14. Expected points total: 43.​

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vBulls:​

• 7 wins, 5 losses
• 306 points for, 274 points against, +32 PD
• 28 tries for, 37 tries against, -9 TD

Only the Sunwolves and Stormers, last on the overall table and last in South Africa respectively, have scored fewer tries than the Bulls. The Bulls also have the 4th lowest metres carried and the worst breakdown success rate. Despite this, they have the 4th best PD in the competition, and the third best win record, in no small part due to their lineout success rate (93.2%) and their competition-topping advantage line rate. Their win against the Rebels was their first outside of South Africa for three years, and the Bulls will know that now is the time to make an impact, especially given Pollard's impending departure. A win is a good result.​

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@Sunwolves​

• 2 wins, 10 losses​
• 240 points for, 407 points against, -167 PD
• 26 tries for, 59 tries against, -33 TD

The Sunwolves, despite their positive start to the season, have collapsed. They have the second-fewest tries in the competition, the most yellow cards, and the worst ruck success rate. Only the Highlanders have a worse tackle success rate, only the Reds and Jaguares are worse in the scrum, only the Hurricanes are worse in the lineout. But whereas those teams have strengths to cover their weaknesses, the Sunwolves do not. Less than five points is a failure.​

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@Waratahs​

• 5 wins, 7 losses​
• 296 points for, 293 points against, +3 PD
• 37 tries for, 38 tries against, -1 TD

The Waratahs are probably not a good team this season. Their wins against the Reds were more a factor of poor goal kicking from their opponents than any measure of their own skill, likewise their win against the Sunwolves coming from one of the worst drop goal attempts in Super Rugby history. Their win against the Crusaders is doubtlessly covered by the cloud of the Christchurch shooting, while their win against the Rebels is almost unexplainable, with the Rebels putting on one of the worst second half performances from a non-Brumbies team this season. The Tahs have the fewest tries of any Australian team despite the most clean breaks and carries, and an amazing ruck success rate (97%, the best in the competition) to go along with the third-worst scrum sucess and the worst lineout success rate in Australia. That said, they still have a lot of backline quality, and that has the potential to get them across the line. A win is expected and five points is not unreasonable.​

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vReds​

• 5 wins, 7 losses​
• 293 points for, 317 points against, -24 PD
• 40 tries for, 41 tries against, -1 TD

The Reds are probably better than their position, as they would probably be top of the Australian conference and equal-third overall if they had a goalkicker. They've scored as many tries as the Jaguares, who have the second-best try differential in the competition, but have made some signigicant mistakes defensively. Their scoring record is even more impressive when you consider that they have the fifth-least carries and the least offloads, which they have translated into the sixth-most metres made, the fifth-most clean breaks, and the second-most defenders beaten; a significant part of this is their incredibly low number of handling errors, as they make the least in the competition. They may have the third-best lineout success rate (90.8%), but they have the second-worst scrum success rate (86%), so the set piece is not necessarily their friend. This team is performing below their ability, and their great defensive coach is sure to work out the kinks as time goes on. A win is a good result.​

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Rebels(6 wins, 6 losses): Average 5 wins, 1.25 draws per opponent. Expected points from final games: 10. Expected points total: 38.​

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@Sunwolves​

See Brumbies for team review. ​

Less than five points is a failure.​

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vWaratahs​

See Brumbies for team review. ​

A win is expected and five points is not unreasonable.​

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@Crusaders​

• 9 wins, 3 draws, 1 loss
• 385 points for, 206 points against, +179 PD
• 58 tries for, 24 tries against, +34 PD

The Crusaders have scored the most tries in Super Rugby, and conceded the fewest, despite having the third most yellow cards this season, the 5th worst scrum, and the 6th worst lineout. They have made up for these problems with the best tackle completion rate (86.8%) and the second most metres made (5,831m). They are double-defending champions and will likely go into next season as triple-defending champions, winning as many titles in three years as any other team has won since the competition begun. They are very, very good. A losing bonus point would be a fantastic showing.​

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vChiefs​

• 4 wins, 2 draws, 7 losses
• 333 points for, 417 points against, -84 PD
• 45 tries for, 53 tries against, -8 TD

The Cheifs are a big disappointment (suddenly a lot happier that the Brumbies failed to sign Colin Cooper). Despite having the fourth-most tries in the competition, the second-most clean breaks, the fifth-most defenders beaten, the most offloads, and the second-fewest yellow cards conceded, they are second last in the competition. This is in no small part due to their poor lineout and tackle success rates. However, this team can still punish: they join the Crusaders and the Jaguares (1st and =3rd overall respectively) as the only teams to beat the Bulls in Pretoria this year, though with a bigger winning margin than the other two teams combined; likewise, they join the Lions as the only team to beat the Jaguares in Argentina. This team can beat anyone, and will want to prove a point with what will almost certainly be their final game of the season. A losing bonus point would be a good showing.​

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Waratahs(5 wins, 7 losses): Average 6 wins, 0.5 draws per opponent. Expected points from final games: 7. Expected points total: 33.​

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vJaguares​

• 7 wins, 5 losses
• 318 points for, 297 points against, +32 PD
• 40 tries for, 31 tries against, +9 TD

The Jaguares know that they should be 11 and 1, and they can only blame themselves for the fact that they are not. The Stormers game aside, there is not a game that they have played where you can say that they should have lost, and they will take great pride in that. Despite scoring the eighth-most tries, they have the second-highest TD thanks to their great defence; they have conceded the third-fewest tries this season. They may not make many chances, but they are particularly good at finishing them, as they have the third-fewest clean breaks, carries, and offloads, and the second-fewest defenders beaten and metres made. Regardless, they have the fifth-best tackle success rate, accompanied by the sixth-fewest points conceded. A losing bonus-point is expected.​

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@Rebels​

• 6 wins, 6 losses
• 318 points for, 313 points against, +5 PD
• 45 tries for, 39 tries against, +6 TD

The Rebels are an interesting case this season. They probably have the most outright talent of all the Australian Super Rugby squads, and the best head coach, though their teambuilding and squad management strategies are restricting their ability to perform. Teambuilding goes beyond simply signing good players, and helping players to find their role within the squad is hampered by chopping and changing on a weekly basis. The only two stats in which they are remarkable are their second-most yellow cards conceded, and second-best lineout success rate; in all else, they are incredibly average. Two of their six wins come from games against a Brumbies side which should have been able to control the game for a win, and their only win against a non-Australian conference team was the controversial win over the Highlanders, which relied heavily on taking men out beyond the ball (a strategy which has subsequently been neutralised by quality opposition). Their second half collapse against the Waratahs in Sydney is perhaps the worst second half performance in the Super Rugby season. However, they have so much quality that you have to imagine them beating their conference rivals to end the season with a wildcard finals position. A win is achievable, but a losing bonus point is expected.​

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vBrumbies​

• 6 wins, 6 losses
• 291 points for, 286 points against +5 PD
• 44 tries for, 39 tries against, +5 TD

The Brumbies, much like last year, had a terrible start to the season and will be regretting the fact that they could be eleven points better off this season than they are. However, while it took until the fifth-last game of 2018 for the Brumbies to kick into gear, they've managed to put it together halfway through this season. The remarkable thing about this Brumbies team is their high number of tries despite having the fewest carries, metres made, clean breaks, defenders beaten, offloads made, and number of 7+ phases. While their defence has played a big part in their wins, they have a very mediocre 85.2% tackle success rate. While the lazier journalists out there would suggest that this is a "reversion" to "boring Brumbies", this team has scored the fewest penalty goals in the competition, have kicked the ball away the third-fewest number of times, is one of the leading tryscorers in the competition, and have the third-most individual tryscorers in Super Rugby (18). However, 10 of those 18 are forwards, making up 24 of the 44 tries, though, again, a significant number of these tries have been that journalist wet-dream of "exciting running rugby". They succeed because they are fit enough to make a lot of tackles (the second-most in the competition, they hit back suddenly, and make the second-least handling errors. If last season is any indicator, the Brumbies will continue to improve as the season goes on, and will be a tough team to beat. A win is achievable, but a losing bonus point is expected.​

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@Highlanders​

• 5 wins, 2 draws, 6 losses
• 346 points for, 322 points against, +24 PD
• 46 tries for, 44 tries against, +2 TD

This Highlanders team, like the Brumbies, know that they only have themselves to blame for not being higher in the NZ conference. Their five-game losing streak from round 3 really drove the nail into the coffin of their top-of-the-conference hopes, particularly their two losses to the Hurricanes, both as a result of poor game management. That said, they have scored the third-most tries this season, the least yellow cards conceded, and very good numbers across the board on carries, linebreaks, offloads, and defenders beaten. However, they aren't making their tackles, and have the worst tackle completion rate in the competition. They have conceded the third-most linebreaks (93), only one fewer than the second-most. This is a team with serious defensive issues, which you'd think would be great for good attacking teams to run at, but they've hurt opponents on the counter so many times that reckless abandon will not be enough. This team is beaten by clever kicks in behind and through tackle busts, and they are neutralised by having defenders to cover the counter. A win is achievable, but a losing bonus point is expected.​

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Reds (5 wins, 7 losses): Average 5 wins, 0.5 draws per opponent. Expected points from final games: 7. Expected points total: 30.​

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@Chiefs​

See Rebels for team review.​

A losing bonus point would be a good showing.​

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vJaguares​

See Waratahs for team review.​

A losing bonus point would be a good showing.​

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vBlues​

• 5 wins, 7 losses
• 262 points for, 270 points against, -8 PD
• 34 tries for, 35 tries against, -1 TD

This team will run at you. They have the most carries in the competition, and the defenders beaten and metres made to show for it. They share the equal-best advantage line rate with the Bulls, they have gone 7+ phases 61 times this season (12 more than the next best team), have kicked the least of all teams, and their control of possession has let them concede the third-least points this season despite making the least tackles. However, despite this, they have a negative PD, as they struggle to convert their possession into points. If the Reds make their tackles, and hold onto the ball, they will win this game. ​

A win is to be expected.​

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@Brumbies​

See Waratahs for team review.​

A losing bonus point would be a good showing.​

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Review​

Going into the final quarter of the season, I predict we will go to the finals with the Australian conference in the following shape:​

1. Brumbies - 9 wins, 7 losses, 43 points.
2. Rebels - 8 wins, 8 losses, 38 points.
3. Waratahs - 6 wins, 10 losses, 33 points.
4. Reds - 6 wins, 10 losses, 30 points.
5. Sunwolves - 2 wins, 14 losses, 12 points.

 

[Derpus]

Its not encouraging that the best an Aussie team can pull off is evens.

 

[RoffsChoice]

I'd argue that both the Brumbies and Reds have left three wins out there which should be theirs, and we really should be going into a finals series with the Brumbies on 12 wins and the Reds on 9 or 10. I'm much happier to be in the world where we're annoyed about losses that should have been wins instead of losses that could never have been wins.

 

[Strewthcobber]

I'd argue that both the Brumbies and Reds have left three wins out there which should be theirs, and we really should be going into a finals series with the Brumbies on 12 wins and the Reds on 9 or 10. I'm much happier to be in the world where we're annoyed about losses that should have been wins instead of losses that could never have been wins.

How many do you give the Tahs?

 

[RoffsChoice]

In my "what if they did what they could" fantasy world, the Reds won both Tahs games. However, with some better rest policy and defensive work, they could have won six other games. So they could have ended up on 10 wins as well, but I think the gap between reality and their potential is bigger than with the Reds and Brumbies.

 

[Braveheart81]

I think the Tahs will make the finals if they win 3 of their last 4 games. If they only win two, they're definitely out.

Same applied for the Blues and Stormers.

There's definitely still an outside chance of three Australian teams making the finals but equally, a chance it will only be one team.

I see the Lions and Sharks having tough runs home and both potentially missing the finals despite sitting in the top 8 right now. This weekend for the Highlanders is crucial. If they lose they could also miss out.

 

[Brumby Runner]

Two wins from 4 probably is enough to get them there, and they have Sunwolves, and Chiefs at home.

Decent chance v Tahs as well. So it's probably fair enough

Especially if the Tahs are starting to rest their Wallabies at that stage.

 

[Braveheart81]

Especially if the Tahs are starting to rest their Wallabies at that stage.

They have to rest a bunch of players but I wouldn't be picking the Brumbies game. It surely has to be one of the away games. I think the Tahs need to take a punt on tanking a game and winning their other three. None of them are at all easy and it would be foolish to think that they can spread the players resting across all the matches and still have a chance in all of them.

My tactic would be go in all guns blazing against the Jags this weekend knowing that a loss here effectively ends their season.

A big question of whether you rest everyone against the Rebels the next week away in Melbourne or the final week against the Highlanders. The Highlanders is probably the toughest fixture but if you are going to make the finals you probably don't want half a dozen key players resting the week before.

 

[Brumby Runner]

They have to rest a bunch of players but I wouldn't be picking the Brumbies game. It surely has to be one of the away games. I think the Tahs need to take a punt on tanking a game and winning their other three. None of them are at all easy and it would be foolish to think that they can spread the players resting across all the matches and still have a chance in all of them.

My tactic would be go in all guns blazing against the Jags this weekend knowing that a loss here effectively ends their season.

A big question of whether you rest everyone against the Rebels the next week away in Melbourne or the final week against the Highlanders. The Highlanders is probably the toughest fixture but if you are going to make the finals you probably don't want half a dozen key players resting the week before.

BH I was responding to a post about the Rebel's chances, not the Brumbies. But, on the subject, I was sure there were a couple of Tahs' players who needed to have two rested games yet, so is it possible for them to not have rested players in at least two games yet to come?

 

[Braveheart81]

BH I was responding to a post about the Rebel's chances, not the Brumbies. But, on the subject, I was sure there were a couple of Tahs' players who needed to have two rested games yet, so is it possible for them to not have rested players in at least two games yet to come?

Woops. I guess I missed that seeing as we play both the Rebels and Brumbies in the next four weeks.

Kepu and Simmons have both played every game so potentially they could be required to rest for two. They may be on the list only requiring one match though (which wouldn't be unreasonable as neither are guaranteed RWC spots).

Hooper, Foley and Beale all presumably need to be rested for one more game.

 

[Dctarget]

Woops. I guess I missed that seeing as we play both the Rebels and Brumbies in the next four weeks.

Kepu and Simmons have both played every game so potentially they could be required to rest for two. They may be on the list only requiring one match though (which wouldn't be unreasonable as neither are guaranteed RWC spots).

Hooper, Foley and Beale all presumably need to be rested for one more game.

I'm sure the Waratahs can get some dispensation and the rest of us on here will all be screaming bloody murder

 

[Derpus]

A big question of whether you rest everyone against the Rebels the next week away in Melbourne or the final week against the Highlanders. The Highlanders is probably the toughest fixture but if you are going to make the finals you probably don't want half a dozen key players resting the week before.

Surely you throw the Highlanders game? I would have thought it's that or stagger the rests.

 

[Braveheart81]

Surely you throw the Highlanders game? I would have thought it's that or stagger the rests.

It's very likely that it will be the match they will start as heaviest underdog in regardless of players selected but then it's the last round. There's a horrible history of resting players before finals.

 

[Show-n-go]

Is there a realistic chance the tahs will just say fuck you and play them all? At the end of the day it’s only a handshake agreement isn’t it?