Super Rugby 2019 Predictions - Aussie Conference

[Braveheart81]

The Rebels struggled last year whenever Genia wasn't available. He will be close to the most missed player from any Aussie side again I think when he needs to rest (or misses through injury).

 

[Brumby Runner]

a big unknown is the wallaby rest factor. How many games and when being the big question.

Let's start with the assumption that players who played the most tests last year will be rested.

Tahs will need to rest:

- Hooper (Miller as understudy)
- Simmons (Staniforth)
- Foley (Mason)
- Beale (Hunt being shuffield with the likes of Rona and Clark getting starts from it)
- Folau (as above)
- Kepu (Vui but with Robertson injured depth is challenged)
- Phipps (Gordon comes in with Short as back up)

Rebels need to rest:

- DHP (Maddocks to fullback, Tupou on to wing?)
- Korobiete (as above)
- Genia (Ruru starts)
- Coleman (Luke Jones to lock and Cottrell to start?)
- WIll be interesting if To'omua is rested when he comes back from the UK.

Brumbies:

- Sio (Slipper comes in, bench a concern)
- Pocock (Samu's inclusion helps and McCaffrey is a great back up)

Reds:
- Rodda (Hocking or Blythe)
- Tupou (Smith starts but limited after that. Luka or Fotiuaika

Tahs obviously will have the biggest challenge and I think it's fair to say they rely more on their big three backs (Foley, Beale and Folau) more than most. Hooper obviously a huge loss but Miller was very good last year.

The next rung of players would be:

- 9 tests last year = To'omua, Hodge, Ala'alatoa, Samu
- 8 tests = Hanigan, Latu

You'd think the rest should be fine.

Spot on Reg. Tahs will in all likelihood be most affected by the resting policy, and imo their reserves are not as strong as in other teams. I also think that Foley, Beale and Folau are another year older and more likely than most to suffer from deteriorating performances over the whole season as they are on the wrong side of their respective peaks.

I really don't rate their chances this year unless the coaching teams at the Reds and Brumbies fail to deliver.

Some of the players to watch this year are :

Tahs - Dempsey, Johnson-Holmes, Vui;

Rebels - Cooper (naturally), Uelese, Goddard, Naisarani;

Brumbies - Swain, Valetini, Simone;

Reds - ASY (Angus Scott-Young), Stewart, Petaia, Naivalu.

 

[Rebels3]

As a Rebels fan I’m confident we can make finals if the following happens.

Quade plays most of the games
Uelese stays fit, Ainsley has slightly improved at set piece and Sa’aga is preferred at LH

Otherwise I think the squad is capable of carrying other injuries (fingers crossed no one is). The biggest issue is the scrum and someone directing play.

I’ll make some overall ladder predictions once I see the scrum in some preseason games

 

[Silverado]

Spot on Reg. Tahs will in all likelihood be most affected by the resting policy, and imo their reserves are not as strong as in other teams. I also think that Foley, Beale and Folau are another year older and more likely than most to suffer from deteriorating performances over the whole season as they are on the wrong side of their respective peaks.

I really don't rate their chances this year unless the coaching teams at the Reds and Brumbies fail to deliver.

Some of the players to watch this year are :

Tahs - Dempsey, Johnson-Holmes, Vui;

Rebels - Cooper (naturally), Uelese, Goddard, Naisarani;

Brumbies - Swain, Valetini, Simone;

Reds - ASY (Angus Scott-Young), Stewart, Petaia, Naivalu.

Agree. Tahs have strong depth in the backs but forwards not so much. Call me old fashioned but I still believe that possession is 9/10ths if the law

 

[Jimmy_Crouch]

The Rebels struggled last year whenever Genia wasn't available. He will be close to the most missed player from any Aussie side again I think when he needs to rest (or misses through injury).

I’d like to see Goddard get sometime this year.

 

[liquor box]

I think Rebels will win the conference and that Quade Cooper will start at the World Cup. He has a point to prove and I think he will form a great combo with a very talented backline.

Brumbies 2nd
Reds 3rd
Sunwolves 4th
Tahs 5th - overdue for a shocking season, combined with resting players and I think this could be a bad season for them.

 

[dru]

I think Rebels will win the conference and that Quade Cooper will start at the World Cup. He has a point to prove and I think he will form a great combo with a very talented backline.

Brumbies 2nd
Reds 3rd
Sunwolves 4th
Tahs 5th - overdue for a shocking season, combined with resting players and I think this could be a bad season for them.

That would be a great result.

 

[southsider]

I think Rebels will win the conference and that Quade Cooper will start at the World Cup. He has a point to prove and I think he will form a great combo with a very talented backline.

Brumbies 2nd
Reds 3rd
Sunwolves 4th
Tahs 5th - overdue for a shocking season, combined with resting players and I think this could be a bad season for them.

Surely you’re taking the Mickey that you think the tahs will do worse than the sunwolves

 

[bloodred]

I think Rebels will win the conference and that Quade Cooper will start at the World Cup. He has a point to prove and I think he will form a great combo with a very talented backline.

Brumbies 2nd
Reds 3rd
Sunwolves 4th
Tahs 5th - overdue for a shocking season, combined with resting players and I think this could be a bad season for them.

I think you are being tough on the Tahs

 

[KOB1987]

Some people seem to be making the inference that players are going to be rested for the whole season..it's for a couple of games and those games are at the discretion of the coaches. It should be beneficial for the subsequent games too for those players.

I don't think the Tahs will win the conference but they ain't going to finish behind the Wolves.

Happy for people to write them off though.

 

[KOB1987]

I think Rebels will win the conference and that Quade Cooper will start at the World Cup. He has a point to prove and I think he will form a great combo with a very talented backline.

Brumbies 2nd
Reds 3rd
Sunwolves 4th
Tahs 5th - overdue for a shocking season, combined with resting players and I think this could be a bad season for them.

New

I figure Rebels will win the gathering and that Quade Cooper will begin at the World Cup. He has a point to demonstrate and I figure he will frame an extraordinary combo with an extremely skilled backline.

Brumbies second

Reds third

Sunwolves fourth

Tahs fifth - past due for a stunning season, joined with resting players and I figure this could be an awful season for them.

Is that you liquor box??

 

[Sully]

New

I figure Rebels will win the gathering and that Quade Cooper will begin at the World Cup. He has a point to demonstrate and I figure he will frame an extraordinary combo with an extremely skilled backline.

Brumbies second

Reds third

Sunwolves fourth

Tahs fifth - past due for a stunning season, joined with resting players and I figure this could be an awful season for them.

The Rebels, for all their player depth, still have an untested head coach. Just like the Reds.

I can't see the Waratahs coming anywhere near last.

 

[Silverado]

Some people seem to be making the inference that players are going to be rested for the whole season..it's for a couple of games and those games are at the discretion of the coaches. It should be beneficial for the subsequent games too for those players.

I don't think the Tahs will win the conference but they ain't going to finish behind the Wolves.

Happy for people to write them off though.

Agree. Waratahs have a lot of backs in the Wallabies but the acquisition of Hunt and AAC (Adam Ashley-Cooper) allows for some resting, which as you said will only be a game here and there. Forward s have less depth but all squads will be doing the same so I don’t see it as big a factor as some of thers. I suppose we don’t have to wait long to find out

 

[Jimmy_Crouch]

Resting isn't just about game time it's about travel too. With Japan having a camp in the first month which includes 20 Sunwolves players I'd be sending over a team less 2018 end of season tour Wallabies for our R2 clash.

 

[The Honey Badger]

Tahs
Brums
Rebels
Wolves
Reds

Tahs to go one more and make the finals, if its a home game they will win it.

 

[Rebels3]

Guess i better have a go at this before the season starts

1. Rebels - best squad especially depth. Front row is the only issue, if they can gain parity will win the Aus conference.

2. Reds - by seasons end will have the most balanced and dynamic pack in the Aus conference. Winning the contact battle in the current day and age goes a long way to winning games, the reds will win more contact than they lose.

3. Waratahs - tight 5 very shoddy, will get spanked against teams with a moderate scrum. Teams they will get parity against (Rebels, Sunwolves, etc.) they will account for.

4. Brumbies - Wouldn't surprise me to see them on top, but although they have a good forward pack i just think they will struggle in the decision making roles (similar to the Reds) without the dynamism that the Reds pack has to blow teams off the park.

Looking forward to looking very silly come mid season.

In all honest there isn't much between all the teams, one injury to a major player will derail a campaign.

 

[Derpus]

Got me blue tinted glasses on but i think the Tahs will finish first. I doubt they'll rest all the Wallabies at the same time, so if it's well managed it shouldnt be as deleterious as some have suggested.

Rebels have had many seasons with a theoretically great team and it never eventuates. Their front row was absolutely atrocious last year, regularly cost them games and they haven't fixed it.

Havent seen anything from the Reds to suggest they'll be any better than last season either, other than the shipping out of some dross. They are almost the inverse to the Rebels. Crack front row but Stewart and Hegarty as your key playmakers leaves a bit to be desired.

Brumbies lost Naisarani but have a fit (hopefully) Valetini and have signed Samu. The rest of the team really came good at the end of last season and should kick on. Brumbies and Tahs competing for top spot. They have better depth than the Rebels as well, in my opinion.

 

[Scoey]

I'll have a crack.

1. Rebels
2. Reds
3. Brumbies
4. Tahs
5. Sunwolves

Thought process and contributing factors that bring me to that conclusion.

1. The Rebels have the best squad and are, by most measures, the deserved favourite for top spot. It's no lay down misere though. They need to live up to the potential they have had for a couple of seasons but yet to actually realise which is a big unknown.
2. Positions 2-4 are going to be super super tight and could realistically do anything.
3. I am an unapologetic Reds fan, so my love for them puts them just in front in a tight race.
4. I have an irrational dislike for the Tahs that has been handed down through generations. I also think they will be the team hardest hit and most likely to struggle with Test players being rested. So they come just behind in a tight race.
5. Sunwolves should come last.
6. Brumbies get #3 by default.

 

[Brumby Runner]

Got me blue tinted glasses on but i think the Tahs will finish first. I doubt they'll rest all the Wallabies at the same time, so if it's well managed it shouldnt be as deleterious as some have suggested.

How many games do the Wallabies' players have to miss? Is it 2 or 3?

Tahs have 10 Wallabies, = 20 or 30 missed man games just through resting. In a 15 game season, discounting for matches against the very top sides when you'd want to play the complete best team, that could equate to 2 or 3 missing players, on average, from each game where players are rested. I think that will have a big bearing on the Tahs' outcome in 2019.

 

[Froggy]

Scoey, don't necessarily agree with your rankings, but a big thumbs up as the only person to be honest about their rational behind their decisions