Super Rugby 2015, the run home
- Thread starter Lindommer
- Start date
- Status
Hugh Jarse
Rocky Elsom (76)
I suspect @KevinO was referring to another team that starts with H. A fairly simple Freudian Slip given the next paragraph was about Highlanders.
Pfitzy
Nathan Sharpe (72)
Hurricanes minor premiers. No amount of points from anyone else can change that.
Waratahs can finish second with a simple W in each of the last games, but nothing there is certain given their patchy form this year. Lions are a big threat this weekend against a depleted side - particularly at scrum time - and while you'd say the Cheetahs and Reds shouldn't trouble them, the flight home after two weeks against a couple of Saffer sides is not an easy trip. They have the potential to take all 3, and with at least 2 bonus points, but that is just the form guide right now. Second Place on about 53.
Stormers will be sweating on the result out of Canberra on Friday night. That game could snatch their finals position away if they don't have their heads on against Cheetahs, Lions, and Sharks in the last three weeks. Still backing them to win on home soil, but go out first week of finals. Third Place 49 points.
The Chiefs will mutter about the conference system, but still have some work to do against the Clan and Hurricanes, as well as travelling to Brisbane where the Reds showed the Rebels it isn't necessarily 5 points in your pocket. Fifth place on 52 points.
The Clan realise this too, as they also have to play the Canes (in Napier) and the Blues aren't the easybeats their table position implies. Their game against the Chiefs will determine important table position. Fourth place on 54 points
The Brumbies are well in control of their own destiny, with what I consider three winnable games that could see them top the conference yet. The Force might have other ideas, but I think they'll account for the Bulls and Crusaders in Canberra and pick up a win in Perth, to finish 6th on 52 points, losing the countback on wins to the Chiefs.
Lions and Bulls are the only other contenders, but they'll get chopped out of it on the games this week (I hope for the Tahs' sake).
The best thing about the last three weeks is the Chiefs, Canes, and Brumbies need to fucking amp it up to secure bonus points, because they could be vital. That means entertaining rugby.
Waratahs can finish second with a simple W in each of the last games, but nothing there is certain given their patchy form this year. Lions are a big threat this weekend against a depleted side - particularly at scrum time - and while you'd say the Cheetahs and Reds shouldn't trouble them, the flight home after two weeks against a couple of Saffer sides is not an easy trip. They have the potential to take all 3, and with at least 2 bonus points, but that is just the form guide right now. Second Place on about 53.
Stormers will be sweating on the result out of Canberra on Friday night. That game could snatch their finals position away if they don't have their heads on against Cheetahs, Lions, and Sharks in the last three weeks. Still backing them to win on home soil, but go out first week of finals. Third Place 49 points.
The Chiefs will mutter about the conference system, but still have some work to do against the Clan and Hurricanes, as well as travelling to Brisbane where the Reds showed the Rebels it isn't necessarily 5 points in your pocket. Fifth place on 52 points.
The Clan realise this too, as they also have to play the Canes (in Napier) and the Blues aren't the easybeats their table position implies. Their game against the Chiefs will determine important table position. Fourth place on 54 points
The Brumbies are well in control of their own destiny, with what I consider three winnable games that could see them top the conference yet. The Force might have other ideas, but I think they'll account for the Bulls and Crusaders in Canberra and pick up a win in Perth, to finish 6th on 52 points, losing the countback on wins to the Chiefs.
Lions and Bulls are the only other contenders, but they'll get chopped out of it on the games this week (I hope for the Tahs' sake).
The best thing about the last three weeks is the Chiefs, Canes, and Brumbies need to fucking amp it up to secure bonus points, because they could be vital. That means entertaining rugby.
Brumby Runner
Jason Little (69)
@Pfitzy, won't be unhappy if things pan out the way you've postulated. But I think the Brumbies will have trouble winning all three games left. Most importan t game will be against the Bulls, as the winner of that will probably take the last finals spot. Can't see the Lions making it even if they finish on top of the Tahs this weekend (which is possible given the suspensions, though unlikely) as they then play the Stormers before an unwinnable last game against the Bye.
I'm very nervous about the Brumbies' last game against the Cru. Remember what happened against the Blues last game a couple of years ago. History has a habit of repeating.
I'm very nervous about the Brumbies' last game against the Cru. Remember what happened against the Blues last game a couple of years ago. History has a habit of repeating.
A mutterer
Chilla Wilson (44)
Pfitzy
Nathan Sharpe (72)
Alright you bunch of lollygaggers, siddown and listen up - this is Pfitzy styling now:
version 1.6
16 weeks down, two to go. Teams are in points order, away fixtures in italics.
Hurricanes (57/played 14/12 wins/+126/9 bp) Clan, Chiefs
Highlanders (48/played 14/10 wins/+116/8 bp) Canes, Blues
Chiefs (44/played 14/9 wins/+60/8 bp) Reds, Canes
Stormers (43/played 14/10 wins/+72/3 bp) Lions, Sharks
Waratahs (42/played 14/9 wins/+45/6 bp) Cheetahs, Reds
Brumbies (42/played 14/8 wins/+108/10 bp) Force, Saders
Lions (40/played 15/9 wins/-22/4 bp) Stormers, bye
Crusaders (36/played 14/7 wins/+107/8 bp) Blues, Ponies
Bulls (36/played 14/7 wins/+23/8 bp) Rebels, Cheetahs
Rebels (31/played 14/6 wins/-34/7 bp) Bulls, Force
Sharks (29/played 15/6 wins/-85/5 bp) bye, Stormers
Reds (22/played 14/4 wins/-140/6 bp) Chiefs, Tahs
Cheetahs (20/played 14/4 wins/-162/4 bp) Tahs, Bulls
Blues (20/played 14/3 wins/-86/8 bp) Saders, Clan
Force (15/played 14/2 wins/-128/7 bp) Ponies, Rebels
Hurricanes will be mighty pissed at themselves for letting the Crusaders get the rubber glove on and have a look at their prostate. Will it reveal any chinks in their armour for the last two weeks before their rest week as minor premiers? Their Kiwi counterparts will certainly think so, particularly. . . .
The Highlanders, who gave the Chiefs a right old thrashing in Unvacrrgul. They showed that all the practice they get playing under the dome isn't just for dry weather, putting the Mooloo blowin side away with a bonus point. Jeez I like watching the Clan these days, particularly when you think back to the old days.
The Chiefs are a little injury-hit, and haven't really put momentum together for long patches this year. They'll still muddle their way into a finals spot, starting with the flight to Brisvegas this week, and while they won't look forward to facing Quade Cooper in that kind of form when the Force basically had no answers.
You'd have to say the Stormers are looking good for second at this point - the final round games against the Sharks away might just determine by how much, as they can target the bonus point. I tend to think they'll be too good for the Lions as well, as they will get the hometown rub of the green that the Tahs didn't (mutter, mutter).
My Waratahs dropped their bundle against the Lions, and find themselves having to play another bogey side in the Cheetahs, where anything could happened to a suspension-plagued lineup. Then they have to fly back and take on the Reds, who could be on a streak at Allianz stadium. Only a big win in Bloem will get the crowd there to back the boys in blue, and mathematically they could miss the finals altogether.
The Brumbies fly to Perthfontein to put one of the last nails in the coffin for the year, though the Force could bring them down to their level and make a small profit at the knackery if the Brumbies aren't careful.
The Lions would need to beat the snot out of their countrymen in Cape Town, and then hope a shitload goes their way otherwise.
The Crusaders and Bulls have about as much chance as a fit burd in a horror movie of getting into the finals, but until 6 people above them win a game, I'd count nothing out. Particularly for the Cantabs, given the happy endings they've had so far from the judiciary.
Bitter? You fucking bet.
version 1.6
16 weeks down, two to go. Teams are in points order, away fixtures in italics.
Hurricanes (57/played 14/12 wins/+126/9 bp) Clan, Chiefs
Highlanders (48/played 14/10 wins/+116/8 bp) Canes, Blues
Chiefs (44/played 14/9 wins/+60/8 bp) Reds, Canes
Stormers (43/played 14/10 wins/+72/3 bp) Lions, Sharks
Waratahs (42/played 14/9 wins/+45/6 bp) Cheetahs, Reds
Brumbies (42/played 14/8 wins/+108/10 bp) Force, Saders
Lions (40/played 15/9 wins/-22/4 bp) Stormers, bye
Crusaders (36/played 14/7 wins/+107/8 bp) Blues, Ponies
Bulls (36/played 14/7 wins/+23/8 bp) Rebels, Cheetahs
Rebels (31/played 14/6 wins/-34/7 bp) Bulls, Force
Sharks (29/played 15/6 wins/-85/5 bp) bye, Stormers
Reds (22/played 14/4 wins/-140/6 bp) Chiefs, Tahs
Cheetahs (20/played 14/4 wins/-162/4 bp) Tahs, Bulls
Blues (20/played 14/3 wins/-86/8 bp) Saders, Clan
Force (15/played 14/2 wins/-128/7 bp) Ponies, Rebels
Hurricanes will be mighty pissed at themselves for letting the Crusaders get the rubber glove on and have a look at their prostate. Will it reveal any chinks in their armour for the last two weeks before their rest week as minor premiers? Their Kiwi counterparts will certainly think so, particularly. . . .
The Highlanders, who gave the Chiefs a right old thrashing in Unvacrrgul. They showed that all the practice they get playing under the dome isn't just for dry weather, putting the Mooloo blowin side away with a bonus point. Jeez I like watching the Clan these days, particularly when you think back to the old days.
The Chiefs are a little injury-hit, and haven't really put momentum together for long patches this year. They'll still muddle their way into a finals spot, starting with the flight to Brisvegas this week, and while they won't look forward to facing Quade Cooper in that kind of form when the Force basically had no answers.
You'd have to say the Stormers are looking good for second at this point - the final round games against the Sharks away might just determine by how much, as they can target the bonus point. I tend to think they'll be too good for the Lions as well, as they will get the hometown rub of the green that the Tahs didn't (mutter, mutter).
My Waratahs dropped their bundle against the Lions, and find themselves having to play another bogey side in the Cheetahs, where anything could happened to a suspension-plagued lineup. Then they have to fly back and take on the Reds, who could be on a streak at Allianz stadium. Only a big win in Bloem will get the crowd there to back the boys in blue, and mathematically they could miss the finals altogether.
The Brumbies fly to Perthfontein to put one of the last nails in the coffin for the year, though the Force could bring them down to their level and make a small profit at the knackery if the Brumbies aren't careful.
The Lions would need to beat the snot out of their countrymen in Cape Town, and then hope a shitload goes their way otherwise.
The Crusaders and Bulls have about as much chance as a fit burd in a horror movie of getting into the finals, but until 6 people above them win a game, I'd count nothing out. Particularly for the Cantabs, given the happy endings they've had so far from the judiciary.
Bitter? You fucking bet.
qwerty51
Stirling Mortlock (74)
For me the Hurricanes won't win it. Their pack just isn't good enough and they don't play a brand of finals rugby. They rely too much on turnovers and counter-attack and those opportunities get squandered in finals. It's more of a grind and their pack won't get the ascendency over the likes of the Waratahs, Brumbies, Chiefs and Stormers.
Highlanders have done amazingly well this year but I still think they'll fall short. My prediction is actually for the Stormers to win as long as they can secure #2. They're scoring tries now and their scrum is the best in the business. They play a finals brand and at home should be unbeatable.
Highlanders have done amazingly well this year but I still think they'll fall short. My prediction is actually for the Stormers to win as long as they can secure #2. They're scoring tries now and their scrum is the best in the business. They play a finals brand and at home should be unbeatable.
Brumby Runner
Jason Little (69)
To my thinking, the Stormers are probably the weakest of the sides still in contention. They will end up with a home semi simply because there is no other SA side able to displace them, though I wouldn't be at all surprised if the Lions toss them next weekend.
I agree that the Canes are looking vulnerable, but if they get Barrett back in time they will be right in the thick of things.
The Clan are just so good at playing to their strengths, and they have plenty of them. I can see them going all the way, but they will have to overcome the Chiefs, my early tip to win this year, first.
I believe the Tahs and Brumbies will probably play the other preliminary semi final. The Tahs with two wins over the Brumbies this year would have to be favourites to progress.
The Crusaders are the wild card, undoubtedly. They could still make the finals at the expense of the Brumbies if the Brumbies fall at either of the remaining hurdles.
I agree that the Canes are looking vulnerable, but if they get Barrett back in time they will be right in the thick of things.
The Clan are just so good at playing to their strengths, and they have plenty of them. I can see them going all the way, but they will have to overcome the Chiefs, my early tip to win this year, first.
I believe the Tahs and Brumbies will probably play the other preliminary semi final. The Tahs with two wins over the Brumbies this year would have to be favourites to progress.
The Crusaders are the wild card, undoubtedly. They could still make the finals at the expense of the Brumbies if the Brumbies fall at either of the remaining hurdles.
qwerty51
Stirling Mortlock (74)
Competition says home advantage is huge, Newlands is a fortress and the Stormers are playing much better now than earlier in the year and have almost everyone back. Even when the Canes beat them this year the Stormers in the 2nd half dominated the Canes winning something like 17-0. They just starved the Canes off the ball with their pack and the Canes couldn't do anything about it. I believe they can win away, they usually tour well and beat the Tahs and Force away this year.
Brumby Runner
Jason Little (69)
Stormers should have been beaten by the Brumbies at Capetown and I understand the Rebels gave them a pretty tough game as well. I really think they are the most vulnerable of the likely top 3 to be eliminated early.
Chris McCracken
Jim Clark (26)
I my assumption that a Tahs and Brumbies win this week ensure a finals spot for both correct?
Brumby Runner
Jason Little (69)
Brumbies need a 4 try bonus point and win. Not sure about the Tahs' situation. Must be much the same.
Benaud
Tom Lawton (22)
Top 6 now finalised but the order still to be decided.
Hurricanes have secured top spot and will get the week off.
Waratahs front runners for 2nd spot. A win against the Reds with a bonus point seals it. Without a bonus point gives the Brumbies a chance to steal with a bonus point win over the Saders. A loss by less than 7 gives both the Brumbies and Stormers a chance to steal with a win. A loss by more than 7 gives the Brumbies a chance to steal with a bonus point loss, or the Stormers a chance to steal with a win.
Stormers basically assured of 3rd spot barring losses to both the Brumbies and Tahs. If they lose to the Sharks by more than 7 and the Saders beat the Brumbies with a bonus point, they will be awarded 3rd spot despite actually finishing outside the top 6.
Highlanders, Chiefs and Brumbies to make up the final 3 places, although the order is basically anyone's guess.
Great triple header on Saturday arvo with Brumbies v Saders, Chiefs v Canes and Tahs v Reds to decide those spots. Lock away the afternoon!
Hurricanes have secured top spot and will get the week off.
Waratahs front runners for 2nd spot. A win against the Reds with a bonus point seals it. Without a bonus point gives the Brumbies a chance to steal with a bonus point win over the Saders. A loss by less than 7 gives both the Brumbies and Stormers a chance to steal with a win. A loss by more than 7 gives the Brumbies a chance to steal with a bonus point loss, or the Stormers a chance to steal with a win.
Stormers basically assured of 3rd spot barring losses to both the Brumbies and Tahs. If they lose to the Sharks by more than 7 and the Saders beat the Brumbies with a bonus point, they will be awarded 3rd spot despite actually finishing outside the top 6.
Highlanders, Chiefs and Brumbies to make up the final 3 places, although the order is basically anyone's guess.
Great triple header on Saturday arvo with Brumbies v Saders, Chiefs v Canes and Tahs v Reds to decide those spots. Lock away the afternoon!
Hurricanes (62/played 15/13 wins/+162/10 bp) Chiefs
Chiefs(48/played 15/10 wins/+81/8 bp)Canes
Highlanders (48/played 15/10 wins/+80/8 bp) Blues
Waratahs (47/played 15/10 wins/+70/7 bp) Reds
Brumbies (47/played 15/9 wins/+121/11 bp) Saders
Stormers (45/played 15/10 wins/+72/3 bp) Sharks
Lions (42/played 16/9 wins/-22/4 bp) bye
Crusaders (41/played 15/8 wins/+130/9 bp) Ponies
Bulls (37/played 15/7 wins/+22/9 bp) Cheetahs
Rebels (35/played 15/7 wins/-33/7 bp) Force
Sharks (29/played 15/6 wins/-85/5 bp) Stormers
Reds (22/played 15/4 wins/-161/6 bp) Tahs
Cheetahs (21/played 15/4 wins/-187/5 bp) Bulls
Blues (20/played 15/3 wins/-109/8 bp) Clan
Force (15/played 15/2 wins/-141/7 bp) Rebels
With one round to go, here are the various permutations:
Hurricanes: 62 points - away to Chiefs in New Plymouth, they're three wins and 14 competition points better than their nearest rival. A dominant minor premiership and they'll host a semi-final in week two of the finals.
Chiefs: 48 points - home to the Hurricanes and need a win to have a chance of finishing fourth and hosting a qualifying final a week later. Can finish 6th if they lose.
Highlanders: 48 points - away to the Blues at Eden Park. Exactly the same equation as the Chiefs but with a better match up. Must be favoured to finish fourth and host a final.
Waratahs: 47 points - home to the Reds at Allianz. A bonus point victory seals the Aussie conference and 2nd on the ladder to host a semi-final in the second week of the finals. As the Brumbies play earlier, the Tahs will know what they need to do when they take the field.
Brumbies: 47 points - home to the Crusaders. Can finish anywhere from 2nd to 6th even if they win with a bonus point. 6th place would mean a likely trip to Cape Town to play the Stormers in week one of the finals.
Stormers: 45 points - away to the Sharks in Durban. Did the Aussie conference a ton of favours by drawing against the Lions. They'll finish third unless both the Tahs and Brumbies lose and will host the 6th place team in week one of the finals.
Chiefs(48/played 15/10 wins/+81/8 bp)Canes
Highlanders (48/played 15/10 wins/+80/8 bp) Blues
Waratahs (47/played 15/10 wins/+70/7 bp) Reds
Brumbies (47/played 15/9 wins/+121/11 bp) Saders
Stormers (45/played 15/10 wins/+72/3 bp) Sharks
Lions (42/played 16/9 wins/-22/4 bp) bye
Crusaders (41/played 15/8 wins/+130/9 bp) Ponies
Bulls (37/played 15/7 wins/+22/9 bp) Cheetahs
Rebels (35/played 15/7 wins/-33/7 bp) Force
Sharks (29/played 15/6 wins/-85/5 bp) Stormers
Reds (22/played 15/4 wins/-161/6 bp) Tahs
Cheetahs (21/played 15/4 wins/-187/5 bp) Bulls
Blues (20/played 15/3 wins/-109/8 bp) Clan
Force (15/played 15/2 wins/-141/7 bp) Rebels
With one round to go, here are the various permutations:
Hurricanes: 62 points - away to Chiefs in New Plymouth, they're three wins and 14 competition points better than their nearest rival. A dominant minor premiership and they'll host a semi-final in week two of the finals.
Chiefs: 48 points - home to the Hurricanes and need a win to have a chance of finishing fourth and hosting a qualifying final a week later. Can finish 6th if they lose.
Highlanders: 48 points - away to the Blues at Eden Park. Exactly the same equation as the Chiefs but with a better match up. Must be favoured to finish fourth and host a final.
Waratahs: 47 points - home to the Reds at Allianz. A bonus point victory seals the Aussie conference and 2nd on the ladder to host a semi-final in the second week of the finals. As the Brumbies play earlier, the Tahs will know what they need to do when they take the field.
Brumbies: 47 points - home to the Crusaders. Can finish anywhere from 2nd to 6th even if they win with a bonus point. 6th place would mean a likely trip to Cape Town to play the Stormers in week one of the finals.
Stormers: 45 points - away to the Sharks in Durban. Did the Aussie conference a ton of favours by drawing against the Lions. They'll finish third unless both the Tahs and Brumbies lose and will host the 6th place team in week one of the finals.
The race between the Chiefs and Clan is another one to watch this weekend: both on 10 wins and a points difference of 81 compared to 80, respectively (some press reports have the Chiefs incorrectly listed as +84). They'll probably play each other in an elimination final but the difference is a home match. The Clan play the Blues while the Chiefs host the Canes, my money's on the Clan to finish higher. The Chiefs have a significantly better defensive record, 278 v 326, which might stand them in good stead in a finals encounter.
waiopehu oldboy
George Smith (75)
Worth remembering that over 19 seasons of Super Rugby the success rate of home teams in playoff matches is ~90% c.f. 70ish% overall AND that only once has the GF been won by a team playing on foreign soil.........
When the TAB publish their "to make the Final" market I reckon the only value bets will be 'tahs v Clan & 'tahs v Chiefs as 'canes v any other will be <$1.50 & shorten from there.
Not saying 'canes won't be in the Final, just that anyone expecting anything other than a 'canes v 'tahs Final at Westpac is gonna be seriously disappointed.
When the TAB publish their "to make the Final" market I reckon the only value bets will be 'tahs v Clan & 'tahs v Chiefs as 'canes v any other will be <$1.50 & shorten from there.
Not saying 'canes won't be in the Final, just that anyone expecting anything other than a 'canes v 'tahs Final at Westpac is gonna be seriously disappointed.
Benaud
Tom Lawton (22)
It's a good point re home winners in finals. Just went through them then. 53/65 home winners in finals since super 12 started, including 46/53 since 2000. 0 of those 7 home losers this century were kiwi sides.
Of the remaining 6 this year, only the Brumbies (2002 vs Tahs, 2013 vs Bulls) and Highlanders (1999 vs Stormers) have ever won a finals match away.
Pfitzy
Nathan Sharpe (72)
Right, so here it is from Pfitzy's point of view:
Blues beat the Clan, but they get within 7.
Brumbies lose against the Crusaders
Hurricanes muller the Chiefs
Waratahs thrash Reds, setting records, and getting Graham sacked right before he can swan dive onto his sword. Tahs go to outright 2nd.
Nothing else really matters, though the Sharks should trounce the Stormers so that we can all point and laugh that they would scrape into 6th on points. That would be funny.
Then you've got:
Canes 67
Tahs 52
Stormers 45
Clan 49
Chiefs 48
Brumbies 47
WEEK 1
Canes and Tahs with a week off.
Brumbies go to Cape Town and put the Stormers out of their misery.
Clan win at home against the Chiefs.
WEEK 2
Brumbies fly back and pull off a miracle win against the Canes to take out the minor premiers
Clan can't overcome the Tahs in a thriller at the SFS in front of 30,000
WEEK 3
Brumbies and Tahs fight out a nail-biter at Homeb- you know what? Fuck that. Tahs win easily in front of another record crowd of 65,000 against an exhausted Brumbies while New Zealand and South Africa pretend they don't care.
The end.
Blues beat the Clan, but they get within 7.
Brumbies lose against the Crusaders
Hurricanes muller the Chiefs
Waratahs thrash Reds, setting records, and getting Graham sacked right before he can swan dive onto his sword. Tahs go to outright 2nd.
Nothing else really matters, though the Sharks should trounce the Stormers so that we can all point and laugh that they would scrape into 6th on points. That would be funny.
Then you've got:
Canes 67
Tahs 52
Stormers 45
Clan 49
Chiefs 48
Brumbies 47
WEEK 1
Canes and Tahs with a week off.
Brumbies go to Cape Town and put the Stormers out of their misery.
Clan win at home against the Chiefs.
WEEK 2
Brumbies fly back and pull off a miracle win against the Canes to take out the minor premiers
Clan can't overcome the Tahs in a thriller at the SFS in front of 30,000
WEEK 3
Brumbies and Tahs fight out a nail-biter at Homeb- you know what? Fuck that. Tahs win easily in front of another record crowd of 65,000 against an exhausted Brumbies while New Zealand and South Africa pretend they don't care.
The end.
- Status