Super Rugby 2015, the run home

[KevinO]

As a Rebels fan I am hoping we can keep this form up and sneak in.

Canes: Chiefs (H), Blues (A), Crusaders(A), Highlanders(H), Chiefs(A)
Stormers: Bye, Rebels (H), Cheetahs(H), Lions(H), Sharks(A)
Brumbies: Lions(A), Bye, Bulls(H), Force(A), Crusdaers(H)
Chiefs: Canes(A), Bulls(H), Highlanders(A), Reds(A), Hurricanes(H)
Highlanders: Cheetahs(A), Force(A), Chiefs(H), Hurricanes(A), Chiefs(A)
Bulls: Blues(A) Chiefs(A), Brumbies(A), Rebels(A), Cheetahs(H)
Tahs: Sharks(A), Crusaders(H), Lions(A), Cheetahs(A), Reds(H)
Lions: Brumbies(H) Cheetahs(A), Tahs(H), Stormers(A), BYE
Crusaders:Bye, Waratahs (A), Canes(H), Blues(A), Brumbies(A)
Rebels: Reds(A) Stormers(A), Sharks(A), Bulls(H), Force(H)

The Cheetahs are officially my second team for the rest of the season as they can help the Rebels out if they can get a few wins together.


Crusaders only have one home game left against the Canes

Hurricanes play 5 NZ teams for the rest of the season with the Chiefs twice.





Highlanders only have one home game left against the Cheifs

 

[Hugh Jarse]

Bloody hell. Ignoring the anomaly of the second NZL team languishes in 4th place on 38 points, there are 8 teams with between 34 and 29 points, technically 3rd through to 10th on the "proper" ladder. Those 8 teams are all trying to squeeze themselves into 4 finals positions.

We may need to have Messrs Duckworth and Lewis appointed to G&GR to calculate the various permutations.

Bonus points will be critical.

 

[TOCC]

Il be adopting the Rebels as my 2nd Aussie team for the finals run home.. I really like the look of their team, potentially not championship material but they should have plenty of teams nervous about playing them.


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[waiopehu oldboy]

Inter-confs stats after the weekend:

SA 82% v Aus
NZ 64% v Aus
NZ 64% v SA

NZ 64% v Aus +'SA
SA 56% v Aus + NZ
Aus 28% v NZ + SA

NZ 57.9% v all
SA 51.7% v all
Aus 40.4% v all

 

[choco7]

Would anyone bet against the brumbies finishing first or second in Aus conference?


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[Highlander35]

Tahs will probably top the conference. They did lose to the force, but they've got an easier run in (ignoring Africa), and a game in hand.

Losing out on 2nd spot would depend on the next 3 weeks for the Rebels. If we knock over the Sharks and the Reds, preferably with a try bonus against the reds, and a losing against the Stormers, I'd fancy us against both a tired Bulls on their 4th game, and the Force at home.

It's possible, but at this stage I reckon they're probably second in the Conference.

 

[Hugh Jarse]

The final looks like being in the Cake Tin.

Canes are on currently on 48 points with 5 games left, and they should win at least 3 of them (excluding BPs) which will take them to 60 pts.

Chiefs are next best on 38 points with 5 games left, and if they win all 5 with 2BP games they will also be on 60 points. 3 victories should be achievable, 4 possible, but 5 may be a bridge too far.

The rest of the teams are on 34 points or less, and with 5 wins and 5 BP, they will only get up to 59 points.

Provided Canes win their home town Semi Final, then the final will be held in WellyWood.

 

[KevinO]

The final looks like being in the Cake Tin.

Canes are on currently on 48 points with 5 games left, and they should win at least 3 of them (excluding BPs) which will take them to 60 pts.

Chiefs are next best on 38 points with 5 games left, and if they win all 5 with 2BP games they will also be on 60 points. 3 victories should be achievable, 4 possible, but 5 may be a bridge too far.

The rest of the teams are on 34 points or less, and with 5 wins and 5 BP, they will only get up to 59 points.

Provided Canes win their home town Semi Final, then the final will be held in WellyWood.

Chiefs and Canes face each other twice in the final five games.

 

[BDA]

Who know with the Tahs. honestly they've just been too inconsistent this season. I lost a whole lot of money on them on the weekend and I'm pissed at myself because I should have seen it coming. That was a game they should have won. Poor execution and a failure to adapt. They knew the approach that the force would take on the weekends and they still weren't able to change their approach. It concerns me a little bit given that Cheika will be our coach at the world cup.

 

[choco7]

Id put an outside bet on the rebels to win the comp next year 2016! fine they will be missing higgers, though the likes of mcmahon debreczeni stirzaker are all very pivotal players who will be rising to the top of aus rugby in the future. theyre just young atm...

At least it should be paying half decent

 

[waiopehu oldboy]

Version 1.4

@Lindommer initially asked another contributor to offer us a South African view of proceedings but it turns out that person has a life beyond G&GR so I've been given another crack at it, on condition I use the strictly by-the-numbers points table & fixture list (away games in italics) he has provided, that being:

Hurricanes (52/played 12/11 wins/+119/8 bp) Blues, Saders, Clan, Chiefs

Chiefs (39/played 12/8 wins/+73/7 bp) Bulls, Clan, Reds, Canes

Highlanders (39/played 12/8 wins/+69/7 bp) Force, Chiefs, Canes, Blues

Brumbies (38/played 13/7 wins/+102/10 bp) bye, Bulls, Force, Saders

Waratahs (36/played 12/8 wins/+40/4 bp) Saders, Lions, Cheetahs, Reds

Bulls (35/played 12/7 wins/+43/7 bp) Chiefs, Ponies, Rebels, Cheetahs

Stormers (34/played 12/8 wins/+26/2 bp) Rebels, Cheetahs, Lions, Sharks

Crusaders (31/played 12/6 wins/+100/7 bp) Tahs, Canes, Blues, Ponies

Lions (31/played 13/7 wins/-50/3 bp) Cheetahs, Tahs, Stormers, bye

Rebels (30/played 12/6 wins/-14/6 bp) Stormers, Sharks, Bulls, Force

Sharks (21/played 13/4 wins/-96/5 bp) Reds, Rebels, bye, Stormers

Blues (20/played 13/3 win/-62/8 bp) Canes, bye, Saders, Clan

Cheetahs (20/played 12/4 wins/-109/4 bp) Lions, Stormers, Tahs, Bulls

Reds (16/played 12/3 wins/-155/4 bp) Sharks, Force, Chiefs, Tahs

Force (15/played 12/2 wins/-86/7 bp) Clan, Reds, Ponies, Rebels

The Hurricanes season continues to fail to implode, to the point where a Fairfax NZ journo with balls of steel is willing to suggest that should they win another match they'll make the playoffs for the first time since Super 12 became extra-Super XIV. I tend to agree with this.

The Chiefs came within a ref/ TMO clusterfuck of being more than just a speed bump on the 'canes road to victory but at the cost of yet more tall timber. Their lack of tight-5 depth could yet prove their undoing.

The Clan can no longer be said to be flying under the radar, they're now genuine contenders for a home qualifier. They remain, however, the team who can least afford an injury to a key player.

The Brumbies continue to hang in there but have played a game more than everyone else in the top 7 so one suspects they'll struggle from here, especially given they've yet to beat anyone currently in the top 7.

The Waratahs continue to hang in there, too, but have arguably the best draw of anyone currently in the top 7 and have shown they can win ugly when necessary. Provided they don't have to face the Force again, they should go OK.

The South African top 6 contenders are the Bulls who've just played their first game outside Sethfricka & lost (to the dismal Blues, no less), & the Stormers who've recently returned & have three consecutive home games in which to secure their spot.

In theory the Crusaders, Lions or Rebels could still scrape in but that would require a fairly mind-boggling sequence of results (for the Lions especially as they've played an extra match) so it's probably best to just take it as read that they're toast, as are those currently 11 - 15. For posterity they are the Sharks, Cheetahs, Blues, Reds & Force, but may not necessarily finish in that order.

Projected Top 6 (by-the-numbers):

1. Hurricanes
2. Chiefs or Highlanders
3. Highlanders or Chiefs
4. Waratahs
5. Stormers
6. Brumbies

Projected Top 6 (by-the-format):

1. Hurricanes
2. Waratahs
3. Stormers
4. Chiefs or Highlanders
5. Highlanders or Chiefs
6. Brumbies

So there you have it. And not a mention of how fucked up it is that the likely 4th- & 5th-best teams in the comp get a home qualifier while the likely 2nd- & 3rd-best don't (except that one)

 

[Forcefield]

I reckon the Highlanders will struggle to win two more games but agree with everything else.

 

[waiopehu oldboy]

Inter-conf stats after Round 14:

SA 69% v Aus
NZ 69% v SA
NZ 64% v Aus

NZ 67% v Aus + SA
SA 48% v Aus + NZ
Aus 33% v NZ + SA

NZ 59.0% v all
SA 48.4%
Aus 42.6%

 

[abcde]

My predictions for the AUS conference:

Current:
Bru = 38 pts
War = 36 pts
Reb = 30 pts
Red = 16 pts
For = 15 pts

- Tahs; will be rocked by a saders outfit looking to get their finals hopes on track. They can win, but I think saders this close to the end will be solid
- Rebs; will come close, but not good enough with a few key players missing; Smith, Sefa, Ellison - and also McMahon not up to full strength with hip injury. As a Rebs fan, I want to see the win, but don't think the Stormers away is the SA win they'll get this year
- Reds; back on track hopefully.. Hard to swallow the Rebs losing last week from the start they had. Connolly adds something special, should get up at home, matter of continuing from last weekend
- Force; will squeeze a losing BP either way, hopefully they can catch the Highlanders off guard, as Lions did a few weeks back.. But the clan to get the W

Predictions after rd 15:
Red vs Sha = Red W + 5 (BP)
Sto vs Reb = Reb L + 1 (BP)
War vs Cru = War L
For vs Hig = For L + 1 (BP)
Bru = Bye

Bru = 38
War = 36 pts
Reb = 31 pts
Red = 21 pts
For = 16 pts

My tips on what the remainder of season looks like for AUS conference;

Round 16:
Bru vs Bul = Bru W + 4
For vs Reds = Red W + 4, For + 1 BP
Sha vs Reb = Reb W + 4
Lio vs War = L + 1

Bru + 4 = 42 pts
War + 1 = 37 pts
Reb + 4 = 35 pts
Red + 4 = 25 pts
For + 1 = 17 pts

Round 17:
For vs Bru = Bru W + 5 (BP)
Reb vs Bul = Reb W + 4
Red vs Chi = Red L
Che vs War = War W + 4

Bru + 5 = 47 pts
War + 4 = 41 pts
Reb + 4 = 39 pts
Red = 25 pts
For = 17 pts

Round 18:
Reb vs For = Reb W + 5 BP
Bru vs Cru = Bru L + 1 BP
War vs Red = War W + 4

Final standings:
Bru + 1 = 48 pts
War + 4 = 45 pts
Reb + 5 = 44 pts
Red = 25 pts
For = 17 pts

Here's to hoping the Rebs manage a top 6, highly doubt it, but things can radically change over the next few weeks






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[KevinO]

Version 1.5

1) Hurricanes (57 points, played 13, won 12, 9 BP, 143 PD) Saders, Clan, Chiefs
2) Chiefs (44 Points, played 13, won 9, 8 BP, 87 PD) Clan, Reds, Canes
3) Highlanders (43 Points, played 13, won 9, 7 BP, 89 PD) Chiefs, Canes, Blues
4) Waratahs (41 Points, played 13, won 9, 5 BP, 50 PD) Lions, Cheetahs, Reds
5) Stormers (38 Points, played 13, won 9, 2 BP, 42 PD) Cheetahs, Lions, Sharks
6) Brumbies (38 Points, played 13, won 7, 10 BP, 102 PD) Bulls, Force, Saders
7) Lions (36 Points, played 14, won 8, 4 BP, -27 PD) Tahs, Stormers, bye
8) Bulls (35 Points, played 13, won 7, 7 BP, 29 PD) Ponies, Rebels, Cheetahs
9) Crusaders (31 Points, played 13, won 6, 7 BP, 90 PD) Canes, Blues, Ponies
10) Rebels (30 Points, played 13, won 6, 6 BP, -30 PD) Sharks, Bulls, Force
11) Sharks (25 Points, played 14, won 5, 5 BP, -89 PD) Rebels, bye, Stormers
12) Cheetahs (20 Points, played 13, won 4, 4 BP, -132 PD) Stormers, Tahs, Bulls
13) Blues (20 Points, played 14, won 3, 8 BP, -86 PD) bye, Saders, Clan
14) Reds (17 Points, played 13, won 3, 5 BP, -162 PD) Force, Chiefs, Tahs
15) Force (15 Points, played 13, won 2, 7 BP, -106 PD) Reds, Ponies, Rebels

The Hurricanes have pretty much secured top spot with 3 rounds to go. Have a tough last 3 games but they really don't matter now.

The Chiefs and Highlanders last three rounds are really interesting, each playing each other and the Canes with only one game each against bottom sides.

Waratahs start there South African tour this weekend.

Stormers have three South African derby's that they really should win all of them to finish the season on a roll

Brumbies might just hang onto that final place in the top 6

Lions I think will just drop short, two games against top 6 sides and the bye in the final round. Will be lucky to get another point but stranger things have happened this season.

Bulls in the middle of there road trip need to pick up a win in Australia.

 

[waiopehu oldboy]

Inter-conf stats after Round 15:

SA 73% v Aus
NZ 71% v SA
NZ 63% v Aus

NZ 67% v Aus & SA
SA 50% v Aus & NZ
Aus 32% v NZ & SA

NZ 59% v all
SA 49% v all
Aus 41% v all

In terms of the run home & playoff seedings the only change I can see happening from what I posted last week is the Clan knocking over the Chiefs, who have lost yet another locking option & must be starting to sweat like the proverbial gipsy with a mortgage on Retallick's comeback, to sneak 4th.

Playoffs therefore looking like Stormers v Brumbies in Cape Town & Clan v Tribe in Dunners or the 'tron. History tells us that whoever wins in CT will lose in Sydney but the other semi, 'canes v Clan or Tribe in Wellywood will be an absolute ball-tearer.

 

[Brumby Runner]

Nothing I'd like better than to see the Tahs v Brumbies again in one SF and the top two NZ sides in the other. Certainly on the cards.

 

[Lindommer]

If things pan out as they should, the Ponies playing the Tahs at the SFS would mean the Ponies'd coming off an away win in either NZ or SAf. Possible, and then they'd be easy meat for the Tahs.....

 

[chasmac]

If things pan out as they should, the Ponies playing the Tahs at the SFS would mean the Ponies'd coming off an away win in either NZ or SAf. Possible, and then they'd be easy meat for the Tahs...

Tahs actually disadvantaged here;
By the time they roll the Brums in a one sided flogging at the SFS, they will have only played a relatively token 80 mins for the 20 days leading up to the final. Might feel short of a gallop 30 mins into the final.

 

[Lindommer]

The six finalists are shaping something like this:

1. Hurricanes
2. Waratahs
3. Stormers
4. Chiefs/Highlanders
5. Highlanders/Chiefs
6. Brumbies/Bulls

With three Canes/Chiefs/Clan matches left there's a chance one of the Chiefs/Clan will start to jump up and down on the spot, but it doesn't matter: one of them should finish fourth and the other fifth. For the Saffers, it's difficult to envisage the Bulls overtaking the Stormers, and neither should they, the Stormers've played well to rack up nine wins against the Bulls seven.

HUGE game for the Ponies against the Bulls this weekend, the winner will probably make the final six.