Super Rugby 2013, the run home

[Lindommer]

We're in squeaky bum time, and without being unkind the Highlanders, Force, Kings and Rebels should be making plans for next year. It's not impossible, but miracles would have to happen for the Stormers, Sharks and Canes to feature in this year's finals.

Let's look at where the contenders stand, and who they're playing in future:

Chiefs (48): Saders (H), bye, Canes (H), Saders (A), Blues (A)
Bulls (46): Sharks (A), Cheetahs (A), Kings (H), Sharks (H), Stormers (A)
Brumbies (46): Blues (A), Canes (H), Rebels (H), Force (A)
Reds (44): Stormers (A), Rebels (H), bye, Tahs (A)
Crusaders (42): Chiefs (A), Tahs (H), Clan (A), Chiefs (H), Canes (H)
Blues (41): Ponies (H), Clan (A), Sharks (A), Cheetahs (A), Chiefs (H)
Cheetahs (40): Kings (A), Bulls (H), Stormers (A), Blues (H), bye
Waratahs (38): Rebels (A), Saders (A), Force (A), Reds (H)

I'm not going to feature the Hurricanes (34) or Sharks (33) as they both have three matches against teams higher than them and I don't believe in miracles, but a look at the Stormers is worthwhile, they have four games at home and one away, the Kings. If things go well for them they could reap 20 points from their last five matches.

Stormers (30): Reds (H), Kings (H), Cheetahs (H), Kings (A), Bulls (H)


The final points tally could end up something like this:

65 Bulls
63 Chiefs
60 Brumbies
62 Crusaders
56 Reds
55 Cheetahs
54 Waratahs
54 Blues
50 Stormers

It makes the Stormers' Australasian tour look very expensive; I'm sure they were looking at the tail end of their season to get them home, it's not going to happen. The Reds are sailing very close to the edge, any loss will put them at risk of missing the finals; it's difficult to see them winning both away games against the Stormers and Tahs. Added to those difficulties they have only three matches left (the lowest of the top eight), depriving them of opportunities to score bonus points. The Brumbies have about the best run home, playing only one finals contender and two of the bottom four sides. If they can find their mojo they're a show of a top two spot. The Tahs: they're embarking on the toughest part of their season with three away matches followed by a huge last encounter against the Reds. I reckon they'll fall agonisingly short.

 

[Brumby Runner]

In the run home, I expect all Aust teams to trend lower on the table than now simply because they play one less game. Good thing at least one must finish in the top three.

For the Brumbies to finish on 60, they must earn another 14 points in four games. That equates to three wins and a couple of bonus points. I hope this happens, but on their current form I am doubtful. They must start to want to win games again, not play conservatively so as not to lose. They have the players and the skill sets; they just need the intent.

 

[Braveheart81]

The Tahs certainly need to win their final 4 games to have a chance which is going to be an incredibly tough ask.

To help them out, the Tahs really need the Chiefs, Brumbies and Bulls to keep winning and the Cheetahs and Blues to drop a couple of games.

If the Reds don't beat the Stormers it is very likely that they will need to win their last game against the Tahs to make the finals.

 

[Rob42]

Is that bye for the Reds the week when Wallabies players will be out? That has worked out very well for them.

 

[JSRF10]

The Tahs dropped bonus points will do for them in the end, ignoring the Cheetahs, 2 against the Canes, 1 against the Bulls and Reds. They aren't totally out of it yet but are relying on a lot of results to go their way.

I'd have to agree with Lindommers final top 6. The Stormers could be the wildcard but their poor touring form will cost them

 

[USARugger]

Poor touring form and a mountain of injuries piling up, I think the Stormers are done and dusted for this year. If the Reds beat them and deny them a losing bonus point their season is more or less over as long as the Cheetahs can keep winning.

 

[Rassie]

No way the Bulls are going to beat the Stormers at Newlands.

 

[FrankLind]

Meaningless predictions follow. (could be some mistakes here)

The Brumbies are on 50 points with 3 games left.
They play the Canes at home = probable win,
Rebels at home = probable win,
Force away = probable win
= 62 points ( maybe one or two bonus points) = 63 to 64 points

Chiefs are on 52 with 3 games left + bye, so= 56.
They play the Canes = highly probable win,
Saders away = probable loss,
Blues away = probable win based on Blues forward weakness and indiscipline (after watching the Brumbies game today)
= 65 to 67 points (2 wins and 1- 3 bonus points)

Bulls - Bulls are on 46 points with 5 games left. Hard to predict their matches. I guesstimate they will win 3 or 4 and get 1 to 3 bonus points
= 59 to 65 points

 

[Rassie]

Meaningless predictions follow. (could be some mistakes here)

The Brumbies are on 50 points with 3 games left.
They play the Canes at home = probable win,
Rebels at home = probable win,
Force away = probable win
= 62 points ( maybe one or two bonus points) = 63 to 64 points

Chiefs are on 52 with 3 games left + bye, so= 56.
They play the Canes = highly probable win,
Saders away = probable loss,
Blues away = probable win based on Blues forward weakness and indiscipline (after watching the Brumbies game today)
= 65 to 67 points (2 wins and 1- 3 bonus points)

Bulls - Bulls are on 46 points with 5 games left. Hard to predict their matches. I guesstimate they will win 3 or 4 and get 1 to 3 bonus points
= 59 to 65 points

Bulls are on 50 points

 

[FrankLind]

Rassie, that post was before their game last night. Note I said they had 5 games left, now they have 4

Updated

Meaningless predictions follow. (could be some mistakes here as attention to detail isn't my strong point)

The Brumbies are on 50 points with 3 games left.
They play the Canes at home = probable win,
Rebels at home = probable win,
Force away = probable win
= 62 points (bonus points, maybe one or two) = 63 to 64 points

Chiefs are on 52 with 3 games left + bye, so= 56.
They play the Canes = highly probable win,
Saders away = probable loss,
Blues away = probable win based on Blues forward weakness and indiscipline (after watching the Brumbies game today)
= 65 to 67 points (2 wins and 1- 3 bonus points)

Bulls - Bulls are on 50 points with 4 games left. Hard to predict their matches. I guesstimate they will win 2 or 3 and get 1 to 3 bonus points.
= 59 to 65 points

 

[Train Without a Station]

Did the finals landscape change at all on the weekend, other than the top 3 moving further away from the chasing pack?

From what I saw all conference leaders won and barring Chiefs, all finals contenders lost.

 

[Hugh Jarse]

Cheetahs nosing into the top 6 on 13 games (45 points)
Reds on 45 Points after 14 games.
Crusaders and Blues on 42 points (12 games) with 1 game in hand to Cheetahs, 2 games in hand to Reds.

Tahs, Canes, Shorks look most likely out of the Finals.

Looks like 3 x NZ, 2 x Aus(or SAF), 1 x SAF (or AUS) for the 6 Finals spots.




Is it time to fire up the discussion for this trophy? vvvv

I have obtained exclusive pictures of the trophy the Lions, Force and Blues are battling it out for this year:

SANZAR have been generous. Instead of a single wooden spoon, they have included an attractive jar. That way the teams can keep their wooden spoon collection in one convenient location!

Edit: I have updated the spoon jar, which now includes personalised spoons from each of our candidates! Who will win the coveted spoon and jar?

We may need some photoshopping from The Red Baron for the 2013 version.

The Clan must be favourites for this title, although there is some tough competition from the Force and Kings.

 

[FrankLind]

Did the finals landscape change at all on the weekend, other than the top 3 moving further away from the chasing pack?

From what I saw all conference leaders won and barring Chiefs, all finals contenders lost.

Yep, the Cheetahs won without a bonus point. If they beat the Bulls, I'll include them in the mix.
The Reds are in the shit if they lose to the Rebels.

 

[RoffsChoice]

Yep, the Cheetahs won without a bonus point. If they beat the Bulls, I'll include them in the mix.
The Reds are in the shit if they lose to the Rebels.

They got the bonus point, two penalties and four converted tries to five penalties, one converted try.

 

[Hugh Jarse]

I think I'd rather see the Cheetahs win this year as a dark horse.

They have played some very exciting footy.

Reds, Ponies, Tahs seem to be losing their way slightly.

 

[Brumby Runner]

First revision:

Chiefs (52): bye, Canes (H), Saders (A), Blues (A)
Bulls (50): Cheetahs (A), Kings (H), Sharks (H), Stormers (A)
Brumbies (50): Canes (H), Rebels (H), Force (A)
Reds (45): Rebels (H), bye, Tahs (A)
Cheetahs (45): Bulls (H), Stormers (A), Blues (H), bye
Crusaders (42): Tahs (H), Clan (A), Chiefs (H), Canes (H)
Blues (42): Clan (A), Sharks (A), Cheetahs (A), Chiefs (H)
Waratahs (39): Saders (A), Force (A), Reds (H)
Hurricanes (38): Ponies (A), Chiefs (A), Clan (H), Saders (A)

My initial points tally certainly won't be right for the numbers but I reckon it'll be in the correct order:

65 Bulls
63 Chiefs
60 Brumbies
62 Crusaders
56 Reds
55 Cheetahs
54 Waratahs
54 Blues
50 Stormers

Lindommer, a brave attempt to look at the possible outcomes but I have some doubts about some of your scores. The Tahs currently on 39 will need to achieve 5 point bonus point wins in each of their remaining 3 games to finish on 54. Extremely unlikely.

The Reds currently on 45 will need another 11 to finish on 56. They get 4 for the bye. meaning they need 7 (a bonus point win and a 2 bonus point loss) in the other two games. A big ask.

The Blues could conceivably lose all remaining games so I think they will finish further down the ladder than you postulate. If so. I think the Reds are looking very good for a top 6 finish along with the Brumbies.

 

[Lindommer]

Those points are from edition One. I admitted they're not going to be correct, but I'll stand by the order.

The salient point about this year's end game is the number of matches the finals contenders play against each other, both teams can't win which puts the loser at risk of dropping down the finals list or missing out altogether. A careful glance at the Crusaders' and Blues' remaining fixtures would indicate one of them's in jeopardy of missing out; the Saders play two contenders (but both at home) against the Blues one, while the Blues have yet to cross the Indian Ocean. The Saders/Chiefs encounter should be a helluva match.

 

[Brumby Runner]

Those points are from edition One. I admitted they're not going to be correct, but I'll stand by the order.

The salient point about this year's end game is the number of matches the finals contenders play against each other, both teams can't win which puts the loser at risk of dropping down the finals list or missing out altogether. A careful glance at the Crusaders' and Blues' remaining fixtures would indicate one of them's in jeopardy of missing out; the Saders play two contenders (but both at home) against the Blues one, while the Blues have yet to cross the Indian Ocean. The Saders/Chiefs encounter should be a helluva match.

My bad about the points. I do think you've nailed it regarding the final 6.

 

[Rassie]

The Stormers are not running in home. Their are tackling their way home

 

[Lindommer]

Last revision:

Chiefs (61): Saders (A), Blues (A)
Bulls (59): Sharks (H), Stormers (A)
Brumbies (59): Force (A)
Reds (54): Tahs (A)
Crusaders (51): Chiefs (H), Canes (H)
Cheetahs (46): Blues (H), bye
Waratahs (44): Reds (H)
Blues (44): Cheetahs (A), Chiefs (H)

Let's look at the table with bye points added (only one, the Cheetahs) and potential points available together with matches against fellow top eight contenders:

Chiefs 61/71, two matches
Bulls 59/69, none
Brumbies 59/64, none
Reds 54/59, one
Crusaders 51/61, one
Cheetahs 50/55, one
Waratahs 44/49, one
Blues 44/54, two

The last spot's a bunfight between the Cheetahs and the Blues as the Tahs can't finish above the Cheetahs. After their disappointing surrender against the Stormers last week I reckon the Cheetahs'll wreak revenge over the Blues in Bloemfontein this weekend.


My original finishing order still looks good (ignore the points):

65 Bulls
63 Chiefs
60 Brumbies
62 Crusaders
56 Reds
55 Cheetahs
54 Waratahs
54 Blues
50 Stormers