Strengths and weaknesses of Super teams

[Lee Grant]

I wrote this before I walked the dogs and blues recovery scooped me but here it is anyway:

MELBOURNE REBELS

The main strength of the Rebels will be experience. It was a good idea for the ARU to allow the use of a lot of foreigners at start-up then to provide for their being phased out. Accordingly, it has a better chance of early success, and it also means that later, the Rebels can be in the market place as player contracts expire. When the Force found out that they got the 4th franchise in December 2004 they could choose only those players whose contracts expired in 2005 – or players not wanted at that time

A weakness of the Rebels will be the same as any new team in pro sport: taking time for the team to gel and finding out who their best players are to build a new team. If the Rebels can settle on their best outfit in 4 or 5 rounds they should be congratulated. The midfield and back 3 lineup, in particular, are going to be interesting puzzles.

A second weakness comes from the other side of the experience coin: too many older players and the lack of youthful zest.

A third weakness is a lack of balance: too many utility backs and not enough specialists, and too many able to play in one position yet not enough in others. For example: 6 players who can play lock and 5 who can play 6 but only one specialist, 7, 10 and 13.

With those items in mind, what are the apparent strengths and weaknesses of the Rebels?

Props: LHP/THP Greg Somerville, LHP Nic Henderson, THP Laurie Weeks, THP Rodney Blake (also Heath Tessman hooker/LHP)
The prop situation is full of doubt especially as we haven't seen Somerville and Blake in Super rugby (our known rugby benchmark system) for some time. Weeks is an up and coming THP who was poorly treated by Deans IMO, but Henderson is not a strong scrummager. Tessman is unknown to me.

Hookers: Adam Freier, HeathTessman, Ged Robinson
The hooker unit looks weak to me mainly because I haven't seen Tessman play, and because I must have seen Robinson and don't remember him ….. and because I have seen Freier a lot and remember many of his injuries

2nd row: Kevin O'Neill, Adam Byrnes, Al Campbell, Hugh Pyle, Luke Jones (also 6), Hoani Macdonald (also 6)
They have a lot of players who can play lock but it's not a strong unit IMO though it will offer a good lineout. Byrnes is a known nutter, which is a pity, as he can be a good hard player when the fog of madness clears. I didn't notice Campbell much when he played for Montpellier, though I didn't notice him much when he played for the Tahs or Brumbies either. Unless he has had mongrel and work rate transplants I don't expect much will be different.

O'Neill has been on the park for the All Blacks and would be the pick of the bunch. He's a very good TH lock and does the work in the tight. McDonald is a skilful good old boy as a lock or lineout 6 and can get around the park. Pyle is from my local club and is not of Super standard at the minute but I wish him well. He should be playing for Academy type teams or in an ARC to toughen him up or to spit him out if he's not good enough to advance to Super rugby.

Jones is nominated as a lock but I'd play this young 3M type as a 6 until he becomes seasoned. (see below).

Open side flanker: Michael Lipman
This area won't be great for the Rebels. Lipman is the only specialist and was a decent player when he played tests for the Poms. Though I saw him play some hot games for the Rats this year I saw him have some cold ones also. No doubting his ability for Super rugby though. Chamberlain will be his backup but I can't remember seeing him at 7 and I tend to notice good players.

Blindside flanker: Hoani Macdonald (also lock), Jarryd Saffy,Tom Chamberlain,Tim Davidson (also 8.), Luke Jones (also lock)
This should be stronger than the open side because there's a lot of them. Macdonald is mobile and should play against strong lineouts - and 2009 star schoolboy Jones could make his mark as a similar type of player whenever his core strength is up to scratch. In future years Jones could be used as a LH lock.

Not sure about Saffy as it's been a while since he played union. He'd be one of the fittest when he showed up to the camp though. Chamberlain looked handy in the ITM but not much more.

No. 8 Gareth Delve , Tim Davidson (also 6)
The Rebels don't have a big tank to play 8 but should be decent in the position. Delve is a big ball runner with good hands and Davo is a smaller version and top linker. Both are good leaders and Delve would be my captain..

Scrumhalf Nick Phipps, Richard Kingi, Sam Cordingley
Not good on paper. Two are extremely promising but inexperienced, and the experienced one may be over the hill.

Flyhalf Danny Cipriani, James Hilgendorf (also 12).
The Rebels will be strong at flyhalf if Cips stays healthy and quick ball can be delivered to him. He is the best player in the team and will surprise a lot of opponents with his pace off the mark.

Midfielders: Cooper Vuna, Stirling Mortlock, Afusipa Taumoepeau Lachlan Mitchell (also utility)
Inside centre: Vuna, Mitchell (also 13, wing). Outside centre: Mortlock, Taumoepeau (also wing)

The midfield could be a cracking unit but is just as likely to be a dud one. I think it will fall somewhere in between. On the one hand you have Mortlock a world class player at his best, but a crock at his worst. Vuna was a top winger for the Newcastle Knights league team but is nominated by the Rebels as an inside centre, Mitchell is a utility player but what is his best spot? Is Taumoepeau fast enough to play Super rugby at 13?

Back 3 Wings: Peter Betham, JP Du Plessis (also 13), Fullbacks: Julian Huxley, Mark Gerrard, Luke Rooney (also wing)

This unit doesn't look great but it could surprise us. It looks like some fairly handy names have been hired and they will be flung at the wall during the season to see what names stick. The Force had to do something similar in Year 1. Only two have been nominated as wingers but 5 others can play on the wing. One of them could be Mitchell because there's not a lot of speed in the back 3 and he showed some toe for Uni in the Shute Shield.

 

[DPK]

I
No. 8 Gareth Delve , Tim Davidson (also 6)
The Rebels don't have a big tank to play 8 but should be decent in the position. Delve is a big ball runner with good hands and Davo is a smaller version and top linker. Both are good leaders and Delve would be my captain..

God help us if they find a tank for eight, haven't they got enough big units?!

 

[Lee Grant]

These two don't run over folks though Delve is big enough to. Ergo, they're not tanks.

 

[DPK]

These two don't run over folks though Delve is big enough to. Ergo, they're not tanks.

Good thing noone said they were... I don't mind you digressing, LG, but no straw men please.

 

[en_force_er]

So starting team of
1 sommerville Sommers is a TH that can pretty serviceably play LH. I wouldn't be surprised if he ends up playing LH as Weeks is a terrific TH and will no doubt be a player the Rebels will hope will stick around for years to come.
2 freier
3 henderson Henderson has played his good footie at LH in my opinion, anyway I expect this spot to go to Weeks but I hear Blake is tearing the house down.
4 oneill
5 campbell Byrnes is a real firecracker and played as good as any Aussie 2nd rower in 2010, surely that warrants a starting gig?
6 saffy
7 lipman
8 delve
9 kingi With Kingi's recent acquisition of the Utility tag and the fact that Phipps is the new hot prospect would lead me to believe that if the Rebels go young, it'll be Phipps not Kingi.
10 cipriani
11 rooney Granted Rooney was injured in the NPC but I think he needs more time and we'll see a young prospect like Betham (who the Rebels will hope will stick around) get the starting gig.
12mortlock Vuna is apparently being taught to play 12 so I think we'll see the centers the other way around.
13 vuna
14 gerrard
15 huxley

I read the press BUT the press is often wrong so these are just my observations/thoughts.

I think we'll most likely see a team of:
1. Somerville
2. Frier
3. Weeks
4. Byrnes
5. O'Neil
6. Saffy
7. Lipman
8. Delve
9. Phipps
10. Cipriani
11. Betham
12. Vuna
12. Mortlock
14. Gerrad
15. Huxley (Huxley and Gerrad to play 14/15 in number only and to rotate based on the situation like CJ and Mills for the ABs)

 

[Train Without a Station]

I definitely agree with the comment, that they are a strong squad but too many utilities and weak in a few positions. No stand out Super Rugby Standard 8. No back up hooker and Frier is probably past his best as well as no real 12. But hey perhaps some of these utility players can prove us wrong. Bernie started out as a utility back after all and he ended up being a fairly handy player.

 

[Ruggo]

Good write up on the Rebels Lee. Maqueen is the X factor here. It is going to be very interesting what he roles out in terms of stratagy.

 

[en_force_er]

Good write up on the Rebels Lee. Maqueen is the X factor here. It is going to be very interesting what he roles out in terms of stratagy.

When the X Factor is the coach you can often see teams pull off some unexpected victories but let's just say it's unlikely they will be playing with the Reds' flair.

 

[fatprop]

Waratahs steer a steady course

A STABLE player list has the Waratahs in a better position heading into the expanded Super Rugby competition than they were last year, Waratahs coach Chris Hickey said.

While a host of new faces arrived in 2010, NSW have retained the majority of their squad for 2011.

And significantly no regular members from the top 22 have left.

"It takes time to develop combinations and hopefully this year those combinations will be a lot further down the track from day one," Hickey said. "And the fact we will have stability and continuity will certainly help the team."

The Waratahs also wanted to increase their depth in certain positions and Hickey said they have been able to do that with the addition of players like Ryan Cross, utility backs Brackin Karauria-Henry and Afa Pakalani, and lock Pat O'Connor.

Arrivals: R Cross, P O'Connor (Force), B Karauria-Henry (Brumbies), B McKibben, L McCaffrey, P McCutcheon, P Ryan (Waratahs Academy), A Pakalani (Auckland)


Departures: C Alcock (Junior Waratahs), W Caldwell (released), B Coridas (Reds Academy), A Freier (Rebels), N Nadolo (Bourgoin), D Palmer (Brumbies), H Roodt (Griquas, SA), R Sidey (Force), C Thomson (Narbonne)

The Tahs have a better squad overall than last season,perfect nup, but better

 

[Hawko]

I agree that the Tahs have a better squad this year. We can only hope that one or two step up like Kane Douglas did last year and if Kane steps up another level then we will be very very strong. This team can win the comp this year, but so can a lot of others. I reckon over the dutch the Crusaders will be very strong with the Blues the smokies and of the saffers the Stormers, Sharks and Bulls will be very tough too. I think the Tahs are the best credentialed Aussie team with the Reds having plenty of potential.

2012 will see big changes: new coach (please), and lots of likely leavers (Baxter, possibly TPN, Palu likely, possibly Barnes, Hangers, Turner and Mitchell). I think 2012 will see a very new look team. So there will be a huge incentive for the senior Tah players to make this year the one that they grasp the grail. Dingo would be hard put to leave those older guys out if they take the crown. Ever hopeful.

 

[Lee Grant]

Talk is cheap but I like this from Hickey:

"It takes time to develop combinations and hopefully this year those combinations will be a lot further down the track from day one," Hickey said. "And the fact we will have stability and continuity will certainly help the team."

If he has the same back combinations from the last two pool games of the 2010 season we can't complain, because the backs were on song then.

I haven't criticised Hickey as much as others in the past as I have seen the Tahs perform poorly from time to time compared their on paper strength under all their coaches, including McKenzie. One thing I did bag Hickey about was his slow response to problems; let's forget who the players were who needed to be changed and remember just the lack of action. We don't want Dwyer and Co's pinball selection policy from week to week when things go wrong, just an indication that something is being done.

Slow action was a weakness last season let's see that change.

Another weakness that I didn't highlight with the Tahs last season was their forwards not turning up to play for long periods in the game and in the case of the Highlanders match, not at all. I have re-watched a few of the Tahs games recently and the forwards were very passive against the Reds and the Force for most of those matches.

But they do have a strength that should prevail in 2011: despite not playing well in various elements of a rugby game they are the best team in Oz in grinding out wins and one of the best from any 3N country.

As for recruitment: Hickey has done well. He had to scramble a bit when Cadlwell pulled out, because I reckon he wants to wait another year before going to Peterson and the young man's connections seem to agree. He has got some good backup for Waugh, including getting Alcock to accept a demotion to the SRT Group. It looks like he is going to have a good look at McKibbin, which may decide Holme's future career.

BKH looks like a good acquistion and who knows: getting Paklani could be a coup.

You can't really fault Hickey for not getting a back up for Palu who is the same type of player, nor for getting another good young 13. We don't have those kind of guys with their hands up.

 

[Gnostic]

Fully agree LG.

I have been somewhat critical of Hickey over the past two seasons but you have hit the nail on the head with this bit. The keys for me will be selection of 10 & 12 and the application of the Piggies.

 

[Blue]

The Stormers have CJ vd Linde this year.

The most useless international no 3. Aftert all his injuries he can barely run. I just watched the 2010 Magners final. He jogs from scrum to scrum. Go watch the EOYT games where he came on. He is a liability. Will not suit S15 rugby. Simply too slow to make any impact. A prop needs to hit rucks. The rucks are over when CJ gets there.

As for the Stormers that's a fantastic squad. On paper they can definitely win it. Your problem is self belief in big games. Semi final loss is my prediction.

 

[cyclopath]

Fully agree LG.

I have been somewhat critical of Hickey over the past two seasons but you have hit the nail on the head with this bit. The keys for me will be selection of 10 & 12 and the application of the Piggies.

I would be very surprised if we don't see Barnes / Carter at 10/12. Whether that is ideal, who can say, but they went OK in the latter part of the season this year. Defensively Burgess / Barnes / Carter / Horne / Turner / (Mitchell) is a very good line-up, with Mitchell bracketed for perceived flakiness. Beale is much better at 15 defending than he used to be. Hickey will look at defence first, I think, rather than the ability to carve back-lines apart. That combo is not lacking in attacking firepower by any means, but the ball has to clear the 10 / 12 axis first!
With the pigs, I think we'll go pretty well at set pieces, with lineouts a possible weak point, but breakdown play and ball carrying will be a bit dependent on who stays fit (der, I hear you say!) - I would hate to see TPN have to do too much bash-balling if Palu breaks again.
No reason to think the Tahs can't do at least as well as last year, but paper form means nada.

 

[Newter]

One missing thing not discussed on any post yet is the coaching staff/tactics, given what has gone before, so briefly:-

1) Tahs - will play uber conservative rugby until hope is all but lost and then make a late but ill fated run for the finals with some dazzling Rugby. Hickey will be told he isn't required for 2012.
2) Reds - will be the entertainers again but I expect a better defensive effort from them this year on top of it. The Reds will be looking for a new coach as Link takes up the Wallaby job in 2012.
3) Brumbies - ???
4) Force - Sorry Force boys but after the ineptitude of the Wallabies under the "skills" coaching of Graham I do not rate your chances at all. Graham will put all his cards on Pocock and JOC (James O'Connor) to get you through some games. At least we won't see Harris at 10 this year so that will be an improvement.
5) Rebels - What will R. Macqueen bring to the table? I think we will see a very balanced game plan looking to play a strong defence and territory game.

Were the Wallabies inept under Graham's skills coaching? He had them for the Domestic Tests and the Trinations, if I remember rightly. They scored a lot of tries and played a lot of great attacking rugby, especially in the Republic. The only real blip was against the All Blacks over in NZ when we were static and predictable, but then Robbie did select Giteau at 10. Can't blame Graham for that.

He's certainly done his apprenticeship. Assisted Deans, John Mitchell, Eddie Jones, Brian Ashton, and John Connolly at various pro teams over about 7 years. He could do alright.

Andy Friend on the other hand is very poor. Listening to him speak, I get the sense he doesn't really know what he's doing. He spouts cliches, says too much, lacks sincerity. I don't think there's anyone at the wheel in Brumbyland.

No wonder we saw on-field tiffs between their senior players.

 

[DPK]

Seems to be a theme growing here: next season is a big one for coaches, and for some a bigger year than it is for the players they coach.

Graham will be under the usual pressure to bring quick change to a side that has great potential but needs to perform, and fast. But he will also have extra pressure as his job at the Wallabies earned him some criticism and raised questions about his abilities, and this will most definitely carry over to his new job.

McKenzie will be under pressure to reproduce the supposed flair that only the Reds posses, but will also need to beat last years effort for next season to be deemed successful. Away games will be key- personally, seeing the Reds to beat the Brumbies at home would be a sign of definite improvement. Also, winning in NZ should be a priority. The Reds have lost some key members (Weeks, Braid) but the replacements are around; who the right man for the job is will be McKenzie's job.

MacQueen will carry the "Supercoach" burden, and while this will generate great publicity for the club it will definitely put more pressure on the great man. He's at square one next season, and how the year pans out is going to be interesting for all Super rugby fans.

Friend will need to get tough with his selections. If key positions are not filled with adequate personnel, the season could get hairy. Giteau will need to be tested- no more moving between 10 and 12 each week, with the backline never really getting settled on a normal lineup. Consistency will bring good results, and friend will need to chisel out the best side and then stick with it.

For mine, Hickey will have the toughest year. Last year was both dissapointing and encouraging- while the Tahs once again fell short of the mark, they showed great potential to be one of the best rounded teams in the competition. Injuries will lurk over all Tahs fans and personnel like a great big cloud, but some dead wood has been chopped away and replacing the injured or those needing a break should be easier this year than last.

 

[disco]

I like James Hanson and wouldnt be surprised to see him pressure S.Fainga'a for a spot.

Agreed TOCC,
I think Hanson has been on the fringes long enough & should be pushing for some real minutes this season along with Fitzpatrick, Charles & Whitaker I think the wallaby depth looks good for the next 3 world cups.

 

[Hawko]

Agreed TOCC,
I think Hanson has been on the fringes long enough & should be pushing for some real minutes this season along with Fitzpatrick, Charles & Whitaker I think the wallaby depth looks good for the next 3 world cups.

But who is the next Cliffy?

 

[DPK]

But who is the next Cliffy?

Ben McCalman is still learning the ropes, he could go on to fill the boots.

 

[Lee Grant]

I don't know who the next Cliffy will be but we may have a future Mark Loane. He's still at school this year, north of the Tweed River, and not even playing 8. I won't nominate him as it will serve no positive purpose, but schools rugby trainspotters will know who I mean..