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Strengths and weaknesses of Super teams

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Lee Grant

John Eales (66)
WARATAHS

The Tahs will be strong at prop.
They have 5; so don't need one in their SRT Group.

LHP
– Robinson and Kepu
THP – Baxter and Ryan
Utility prop – Tilse and at a pinch, Kepu.

All are known quantities except Paddy Ryan, who replaces Palmer in the Tahs stable. He ran on a lot for Sydney Uni in the 1st half of the 2010 season and started in the grand final. I'd like to see the ex-Oz Schools LHP on the park in the S15 as part of his development, even though he would be the 5th ranked prop.

Tilse finished the S14 well this year and was in form scrummaging for Uni, mainly at THP. In racing parlance he could be a big improver after a spell if he starts with the same form he had at the end of his last campaign.

Hooker - The Tahs will have a better hooking unit than most though they won't have the experience of the 2 Brumbies hookers. TPN will be backed up by Damien Fitzpatrick, who has had a stellar junior career. He's been brought along nicely but he's 21 now and not in Kansas any more.

Hopefully TPN won't be injured, but Fitzy should be given some starting games regardless as part of his development. We know he is a skilful player but we will be looking for some senior physicality now. Ulugia from the SRT Group will be 3rd string.

2nd row - The Tahs are just OK now with Caldwell having to withdraw and Vickerman not arriving until too late. Unless Douglas has 2nd year syndrome he should be locking with Mumm. At the minute I don't rate O'Connor, and my jury is out on Jowitt until I see him play more.

In the SRT Group the Tahs have Timani, who has not been able to make his mark for 2 Super stables, and the extremely promising Peterson who is only 19 y.o and still building his core strength.

Openside flanker will be a strength for the Tahs in 2011 because Waugh has two good backups now: McCutcheon, a recent Wallaby tourist and ex-7s skipper, and Alcock who had that storming game against the Cheetahs in 2010. He's in the SRT Group.

Blindside flanker should be strong enough with Mowen there and McCutcheon or Dennis subbing sometimes, but the best option would be if two of the other locks can shine and Mumm can play 6, especially against physical forwards.

No.8 will be well-served provided the one and only Palu can get back to form quickly after his spell, (not what he's known for), and can stay healthy. The landscape changes if these matters aren't realised, because Mowen, who plays a lighter game, will have to shift there, with McCaffrey picking up some game crumbs, maybe.

The Tahs should be strong at scrumhalf with McKibbin now a contracted Super player and surely playing ahead of Holmes. Hopefully Burgess will be told to work on nothing else but quickening his decision making, and if in doubt passing the ball somewhere immediately. But I think I said that this time last year.

It could be another problem season at flyhalf and inside centre, which have to be discussed together. 10. Halangahu and 12 Barnes teamed well against low performing sides in 2010 but it was only in the last two pool games when Barnes was switched to flyhalf and, love him or hate him, Carter was back at 12, that the Tahs backline sung.

Maybe that was a coincidence, but regardless: 10. Barnes and 12 Carter could be Hickey's starting point for 2011 – and too bad that Barnes has shown his best value as a 12 at the Wallaby level recently. Cross played some good games at inside centre for the Force in 2010, IIRR, and could be an alternate 12 but I can't remember the ball singing.

Outside centre is the most likely problem position for the Tahs. Horne will be first pick if he is fit enough to start the season. Cross was a canny acquisition to cover for him, but he's not someone to write home about as an outside back these days. Turner has played 13 for Eastwood and even if Horne is healthy, could get some Super experience there if a game is going well.

The back three should be the Tahs' strongest unit. Mitchell and Beale are in the form of their lives and Turner showed his class in the Sydney Bledisloe. Getting the ball to these 3 should be a part of every Tahs' game plan. Even the 2nd back three of Anesi, BKH and Paklani looks decent.

I don't know what position BKH will end up at. I can't remember seeing him play anywhere but wing, but he reminds me a lot of Alatini and other good stepping 12's I have seen in the past. He could go OK there. Paklani looks zippy, like Alfi Mafi in good form, and he could surprise us. And the affable Sosene Anesi was in prime form in some of the Mooloo ITM games I saw.
 

Slim 293

Stirling Mortlock (74)
Brumbies

Props: Fairly strong here with Alexander, Ma'afu and now Palmer in the squad.

This year they were dominant or on par with their opposition scrums but got into serious trouble in the last round against the Crusaders.

Alexander is going to remain at LH and needs to regain his 2009 form in the position after giving away an unacceptable amount of penalties this year. Is still the best ball running front rower in the country though.

Hooker: Strong. Moore is world class, and Edmonds provides an excellent backup at Super level, and is probably now the 3rd ranked hooker in the country after overtaking Fainga'a on the EOYT.

Locks: Solid. Plenty of good options here with Chisholm, Hand, Chapman and hopefully Kimlin.

Blindside flanker: Elsom is returning to his best and Chapman is an excellent backup.

Openside flanker: No more George Smith. But the guy is irreplacable. However the Brumbies are blessed to have options with Salvi's return and two of the best up and comers in the country.

No 8: There's no one but Hoiles. Played well this year. However it's probably time the Brumbies look for another captaincy option for the future.

Scrumhalf: Reliable. Valentine can be hot and cold. Some good snipes from the base of the ruck but sometimes doesn't get to the breakdown quick enough. Phibbs is tough but average. Nic White is the future and will hopefully get plenty of game time. Hopefully more than Phibbs.

Flyhalf: Solid. Tooma is a future Wallaby and the Brumbies attack will be better for him going into this season as our starting flyhalf. Giteau will be servicable as a backup. Coleman also played most of his club rugby at flyhalf and may serve as backup.

Centres: LOADED with quality centres - Giteau, Coleman, AAC (Adam Ashley-Cooper), Stubbs, T Smith, A Smith, and even McCabe. AAC (Adam Ashley-Cooper) should be our starting outside centre and will hopefully continue his fine form there. He's backed up by a couple of young club rugby stars who will need to step up if AAC (Adam Ashley-Cooper) does depart next year.

If Giteau could get back to form that would be one lethal inside backs combination but I don't see it happening. Coleman is a future star and will need to get plenty of game time as he'll take over once Giteau leaves.

Wing/Fullback: A whole lot of uncertainty. Certainly hasn't been the Brumbies' strong point for the past couple of years. Lots of fresh blood. McCabe will most likely start on one wing and will remain solid. Lilo will also hopefully get the fullback position and offer some counter attack. He's shown he can be dangerous with ball in hand, and he has one mean left foot step. It's really the other wing spot that's up for grabs and Wara, Speight and Fainifo will be fighting for it. Fainifo is past it so I expect the spot will go to one of the newbies. And hopefully they offer some much needed spark.
 

farva

Vay Wilson (31)
Ill have a crack at the Force then:

Props: (Tim Fairbrother, Pekahou Cowan, Matt Dunning, Paul Alo-Emile, Kieren Longbottom, Cruze Ah-Nau (academy)) This is definitely an area of weakness for the Force. Fairbrother isnt a bad TH at super rugby level. But Cowen is a poor scrummager and has been picked for his mobility. Dunning went backwards last year and I dont see him reversing that trend this year. Longbum is there because he was born and bred in WA. PAE (and Cruze Ah-Nau) is a very promising prop, but he is still young. Maybe he will do an Owen Franks and really kick on, but it will be a few yearrs yet I feel before he makes his mark.

Hooker: (Nathan Charles, Ben Whittaker, Ryan Tyrell, Siliva Siliva (academy)) There are two very good young hookers here in Charles and Whittaker who should fight it out for the start. I dont think Tyrell will make an appearance this year and may struggle to again. I hope this is the breakout year for one of these guys.

Second Row: (Nathan Sharpe, Tom Hocking, Sam Wykes, Phoenix Battye) Sharpe is the best lock in the country and one of the best in the world. With him on the field, the second row will be strong. But one of the other three (preferably Hocking or Wykes) really need to stand up and be counted. Sharpe wont be there too much longer, so the Force need someone to take over.

Openside Flannker: (David Pocock, Matt Hodgson, Richard Brown, Tevita Metuisela, Jono Jenkins Ted Postal (academy)) The strongest position of the Force. There is the best two opensides in the country and Wallaby Richard Brown backing them up.

Blindside Flanker: (Matt Hodgson, Richard Brown, Ben McCalman, Sam Wykes, Tevita Metuisela, Jono Jenkins Ted Postal (academy)) Three Wallabies means that this is a very strong position again.

Number 8: (Richard Brown, Ben McCalman, Sam Wykes, Jono Jenkins) Once again two Wallabies backing up this position. Force should have no worries here. Ben McCalman is going from strength to strength, and at super level, Richard Brown has none of the issues he has at test level.

Scrum Half: (Brett Sheehan, James Stannard, Justin Turner (inj), Mark Swanepoel) Sheehan is chirpy, physical and a reasonable passer. And if Stannard can bring his 7s form to the longer form of the game the Force will be well served. Its a pity that Justin Turner is out for the season, he was very good last year, and looks to have a real career ahead of him.

Flyhalf: (Willie Ripia, James OConnor, Mark Bartholomuez, Kyle Godwin (academy)) This is a real area of concern for the Force. Ripia hasnt got a history of leading teams around the park, and his back ups are not traditional flyhalves. :? Watch for Kyle Godwin in a couple of years though, he could be something special.

Centres: (Mitch Inman, James OConnor, Rory Sidey, Gene Fairbanks) Inman had a huge Shute Shield and I hope he can carry that through (especially because the Wallabies need a big straight running centre). OConnor I expect to start in the centres, as it just makes sense. And he is one of the best players in the game at the moment. Sidey backs up them well too.

Back Three (Cameron Shepherd, Nic Cummins, David Smith, Alfi Mafi, Mark Bartholomeuz, Pat Dellit) The back three is the weakest back three in Australia. I hope Shepherd can stay on the field for more than 2 games, and get some form, but I am not holding my breathe. Cummins made no progress last year after injuring himself training with the Wallabies. I hope a full super season will get him back on track. David Smith is an unknown quantity. All in all, there is no creativity here, and dont see the ball going wide that often.
 

farva

Vay Wilson (31)
Slim, who will partner Chisholm in the second row? Hand is quite a good player, but Id like to have Kimlin or Chapman on the field too, and they wont be there with Elsom at 6.

Also, Ive heard a lot about Coleman, but dont know much. I had thought he was a quick outside back, but you have him in the centres, whats the go?
 

Slim 293

Stirling Mortlock (74)
Coleman is an inside centre/flyhalf.

He played flyhalf for Queanbeyan this year but will most likely be Giteau's future replacement at inside centre where he played for the Aus U20's.

He's probably the most exciting young talent in the squad at the moment. Especially after being nominated for the IRB award and named Australian U20's player of the year.

If Kimlin was fit I would slot him into the second row automatically, but at this stage I would assume it will be between Hand and Chapman again.

Chapman is excellent at the lineout, and is a good ball running lock who is great at offloading in the tackle. He's definitely a better blindside flanker than lock in my opinion, but I have doubts about his effectiveness in the second row in the tight.

However, he overtook Hand in the starting XV this year and did play pretty well. Hand is more no nonsense, non flashy lock who in my view runs the Brumbies' lineout the best and doesn't get enough credit because he does all the hard work expected of a lock but isn't much of a ball runner.

I do hope that Chisholm isn't an automatic selection though. Last year Hand/Kimlin was probably the best Brumbies' locking combo since Samo/Chisholm in 2004.
 

DPK

Peter Sullivan (51)
Brumbies
No 8: There's no one but Hoiles. Played well this year. However it's probably time the Brumbies look for another captaincy option for the future.

Vaea will need to step up.

Edit: I mean to become the backup eight they will need in the extended season, not to fill the captaincy role.
 

farva

Vay Wilson (31)
Vaea will need to step up.

Edit: I mean to become the backup eight they will need in the extended season, not to fill the captaincy role.

As a left field option, Rocky could fill in there will Chapman taking the blindside role.

Salvi too.
 

Slim 293

Stirling Mortlock (74)
As a left field option, Rocky could fill in there will Chapman taking the blindside role.

Salvi too.

I have no qualms about Rocky filling in at no. 8 if need be.

He switched back and forth between flanker and 8 at Leinster and excelled in both positions.

It would certainly mean that the Brumbies could field more of their best players on the field at the same time.

And wasn't there doubt about Hoiles' fitness for the start of the season? Or has he recovered from injury?
 

Hawko

Tony Shaw (54)
IMO this is one of the most important threads on the forum. Thanks Lee for starting it. I agree with everything you've written about the Tahs but since I have the forecasting ability of Peter Fitzsimons that's not a great recommendation. Whoever tries to do the Rebels analysis has Everest to climb - there are just so many imponderables.

Can I suggest that people also have a shot at nominating who might be the unknown from each squad who might end up as first pick in his position. For the Tahs, if Horne is injured I think it might be BKH.
 

Gnostic

Mark Ella (57)
IMO this is one of the most important threads on the forum. Thanks Lee for starting it. I agree with everything you've written about the Tahs but since I have the forecasting ability of Peter Fitzsimons that's not a great recommendation. Whoever tries to do the Rebels analysis has Everest to climb - there are just so many imponderables.

Can I suggest that people also have a shot at nominating who might be the unknown from each squad who might end up as first pick in his position. For the Tahs, if Horne is injured I think it might be BKH.

Unfortunately Hawko if Horne is broken you will see either Carter or Cross at 13. I would however prefer at this stage to see Turner at 13 and Pakalani or BKH at 14. I don't think you want to start BKH at 13 next year, I was less than impressed with his one on one defence at time in the sevens, extrapolating that how wold he handle not only the step up to Super Rugby but the 13 defensive requirements at well.
 

Gnostic

Mark Ella (57)
For the Brumbies fans - I see the Props as a weak area. Alexander was penalised very heavily this year and again on the EOYT. Ma'afu will most likely be picked at run on THP leaving Palmer as the bench prop. This would be seriously slowing the Ponies up around the park whilst going a long way to fixing their scrum. Add one injury and who will be the bench or LHP prop with Jerry Y injured? Not much depth.

The second row is also a area of thinness with Hand fairly ordinary in the Shute Shield. Chapman is a 6 and less of a second rower than Dennis or Mumm. Will Kimlin stay fit? Chisholm whilst ordinary at Test level is a good Lock at Super level. Who will be the back up?

The strengths for the Brumbies for mine is in the centres and 10. I would suggest that Phibbs is a better starting 9 than Valentine who is a 15 minute sub for Randwick.
 

Gnostic

Mark Ella (57)
One missing thing not discussed on any post yet is the coaching staff/tactics, given what has gone before, so briefly:-

1) Tahs - will play uber conservative rugby until hope is all but lost and then make a late but ill fated run for the finals with some dazzling Rugby. Hickey will be told he isn't required for 2012.
2) Reds - will be the entertainers again but I expect a better defensive effort from them this year on top of it. The Reds will be looking for a new coach as Link takes up the Wallaby job in 2012.
3) Brumbies - ???
4) Force - Sorry Force boys but after the ineptitude of the Wallabies under the "skills" coaching of Graham I do not rate your chances at all. Graham will put all his cards on Pocock and JOC (James O'Connor) to get you through some games. At least we won't see Harris at 10 this year so that will be an improvement.
5) Rebels - What will R. Macqueen bring to the table? I think we will see a very balanced game plan looking to play a strong defence and territory game.
 
T

TOCC

Guest
this is until someone does the reds, this is from thecouriermai, i gotta head to work now
GAINS/LOSSES
Gains: Guy Shepherdson (Brumbies), Adam Wallace-Harrison (Kobe, Japan), Michael Harris (North Harb, NZ), Beau Robinson, Liam Gill, Albert Anae, Dom Shipperley, Kimami Sitauti

Losses:
Daniel Braid (NZ), Laurie Weeks (Rebels), Adam Byrnes (Rebels), Richard Kingi (Rebels), Morgan Turinui (Fr), Blair Connor (Fr), Ezra Taylor, Andrew Shaw, Jack Kennedy, Brando Va'aulu, Poutasi Luafutu, Tim Walsh

STRIP SEARCHThe bold 2010 change to an all-red strip gave a fresh era, a fresh look. It was the colour of 'fresh cut blood' and the fans loved it because they started buying Reds gear again. It will stay as the team's identity.

EXPECT A BIG YEAR FROMJames Horwill. He led the 2010 stats in corporate luncheon speeches and Reds promotions after a cruel knee injury felled him in just the second game. The Reds skipper will be back stronger and more determined in 2011 and his authority as a world class lock is essential for the Reds to take the next step to the finals. The Wallabies need his clout too for a World Cup so he has plenty to aim for.

ONE OUT OF THE BOXWill Chambers. He made a quicker transition than most to rugby from league in 2010. He has a year of Super rugby experience behind him now and everything will be more instinctive for him now at outside centre. He has recovered from a shoulder reconstruction and, at 100kg, can go all the way to the Wallabies in 2011 because he has the confrontational backline size Australia desperately needs.

PRESSURE POINTLiam Gill, Lei Tomiki or Beau Robinson? The Reds desperately need an openside flanker to step up because the loss of Kiwi Daniel Braid's expertise will be far bigger than most yet realise. Former NSW Waratah Beau Robinson might be the answer with his experience and energy. Either way, the flow to the Reds game depends on getting the right man at No.7.

HOW'S THE BOSS?Ewen McKenzie made a huge impact in his maiden year in charge at the Reds. He rewarded performance, gave rookies a chance, set high standards that had been lacking, was ahead of the game with his match planning and the players knew he was giving them an edge. The best thing is that there is still so much room for improvement with a finals spot as the next step.

CRYSTAL BALLThe Reds will reach the semi-finals which are in a new six-team format for the first time.
http://www.couriermail.com.au/sport...dy-for-next-step/story-e6frepm6-1225976328032
 

Slim 293

Stirling Mortlock (74)
For the Brumbies fans - I see the Props as a weak area. Alexander was penalised very heavily this year and again on the EOYT. Ma'afu will most likely be picked at run on THP leaving Palmer as the bench prop. This would be seriously slowing the Ponies up around the park whilst going a long way to fixing their scrum. Add one injury and who will be the bench or LHP prop with Jerry Y injured? Not much depth.

The second row is also a area of thinness with Hand fairly ordinary in the Shute Shield. Chapman is a 6 and less of a second rower than Dennis or Mumm. Will Kimlin stay fit? Chisholm whilst ordinary at Test level is a good Lock at Super level. Who will be the back up?

The strengths for the Brumbies for mine is in the centres and 10. I would suggest that Phibbs is a better starting 9 than Valentine who is a 15 minute sub for Randwick.

The front row will only be a weakness against the 'Saders, and be tested against a couple of teams.

Otherwise the Brumbies' scrum dominated most teams this year. I do agree that Alexander gave away far too many penalties, and Ma'afu would go hot and cold in games in regards to his workload.

The lack of a backup LH is also a concern at this stage.

Otherwise I wouldn't necessarily say prop was a weakness for them.
 

ChargerWA

Mark Loane (55)
4) Force - Sorry Force boys but after the ineptitude of the Wallabies under the "skills" coaching of Graham I do not rate your chances at all. Graham will put all his cards on Pocock and JOC (James O'Connor) to get you through some games. At least we won't see Harris at 10 this year so that will be an improvement.

He doesn't strike me as a coaching genius, but then again, the Force playing group were very wary of Mitch due to his mood swings, so he might be enough of a settling influence coupled with the 2010 Wallaby engine room (Pocock/Sharpe), throw in some Xfactor with JOC (James O'Connor) and Shepherd and we can hopefully have our best finish yet.

Yours Truly
Eternal Optimist
 

PaarlBok

Rod McCall (65)
Stormers, Sharks and Brutes dont have weaknesses and will be much stronger then 2010. That is all.
 

qwerty51

Stirling Mortlock (74)
So will Brown be on the bench for the Force? Obviously they will rotate but is Brown on the bench the strongest Force line-up? IMO, McCalman to 6 or 5 would be the best options. I don't rate any of the Force locks apart from Sharpe obviously.
 

farva

Vay Wilson (31)
The strongest Force team would have McCalman at 5, with Brown at 8.
But I would prefer McCalman play 8 and the Force try and get either Hocking or Wykes to step up.
 

en_force_er

Geoff Shaw (53)
To have the best rounded pack possible the Force will have to bench Hodgson with The Cock at 7 and Brown/McCalman playing 6/8 with the numbers on their back not being a particular issue.

Obviously though, they will have to give him (Hodgson) enough game time to prove otherwise and obviously he is in their best 3 loosesys on form but winning games is about having the right men for the job, not necessarily the best.
 
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