waiopehu oldboy
George Smith (75)
There's now an eleven point gap between fifth (Blues, 26) & sixth (Reds, 15) which is unbridgeable IMO but only two between sixth & tenth (Waratahs, 13) so the last three QF places are very much up for grabs.
There are seven matches remaining between top-five sides & seven between next-five sides:
Round 10 Chiefs at home v Crusaders, Hurricanes v Brumbies, Reds v Force, Waratahs v Highlanders
Round 11 Reds v Waratahs
Round 12 Crusaders v Blues, Drua v Force
Round 13 Chiefs v Hurricanes, Waratahs v Drua
Round 14 Brumbies v Chiefs, Blues v Hurricanes, Reds v Highlanders
Round 15 Hurricanes v Crusaders, Drua v Reds
History suggests the home side will win at least 2/3 & as many as 4/5 of those matches.
Also six "crossover" matches where the visiting Top-five side might be vulnerable:
Round 10 Drua v Blues
Round 11 Highlanders v Chiefs, Drua v Hurricanes
Round 13 Force v Brumbies, Reds v Blues
Round 15 Force v Chiefs
The top-five side should prevail but of course the next-five side are still a chance if their opposition have injury and/ or Card and/ or travel-related issues.
Applying the above probabilities I believe the final standings will be:
1. Chiefs 55
2. Brumbies 52
3. Crusaders 48
4. Blues 45
5. Hurricanes 42
6. Waratahs 31
7. Highlanders or Reds 29
8. Reds or Highlanders 29
9. Force or Drua 28
10. Drua or Force 28
Waratahs the big mover but look at their draw: Highlanders, Rebels, Drua & Moana at home, all of which are winnable, Reds & Crusaders away.
There are seven matches remaining between top-five sides & seven between next-five sides:
Round 10 Chiefs at home v Crusaders, Hurricanes v Brumbies, Reds v Force, Waratahs v Highlanders
Round 11 Reds v Waratahs
Round 12 Crusaders v Blues, Drua v Force
Round 13 Chiefs v Hurricanes, Waratahs v Drua
Round 14 Brumbies v Chiefs, Blues v Hurricanes, Reds v Highlanders
Round 15 Hurricanes v Crusaders, Drua v Reds
History suggests the home side will win at least 2/3 & as many as 4/5 of those matches.
Also six "crossover" matches where the visiting Top-five side might be vulnerable:
Round 10 Drua v Blues
Round 11 Highlanders v Chiefs, Drua v Hurricanes
Round 13 Force v Brumbies, Reds v Blues
Round 15 Force v Chiefs
The top-five side should prevail but of course the next-five side are still a chance if their opposition have injury and/ or Card and/ or travel-related issues.
Applying the above probabilities I believe the final standings will be:
1. Chiefs 55
2. Brumbies 52
3. Crusaders 48
4. Blues 45
5. Hurricanes 42
6. Waratahs 31
7. Highlanders or Reds 29
8. Reds or Highlanders 29
9. Force or Drua 28
10. Drua or Force 28
Waratahs the big mover but look at their draw: Highlanders, Rebels, Drua & Moana at home, all of which are winnable, Reds & Crusaders away.