This will surely be an unpopular comment, but watching Super Rugby every week leaves me jittery over the ABs' prospects for RWC 2023. The quality in Top 14 or the Premiership has edged ahead.
There are so many too-similar players in the NZ conference, in particular our forwards - dedicated to support lines, good hands, good fitness, and sound basics. Ok, but they are all the same. Is there anyone willing to stamp his mark physically on the game? That will go, I'm going to give go-forward, give it to me. Or I am going to physically dominate in the tackle. The pace and power of the North leaves me worried.
Our defensive structures continue to be poor. Attackers make plenty of metres, not because they carry hard, but because the defence meets them too late with high tackles.
Nothing exemplifies this more than at scrumhalf, a position of such superiority over the past decade. After the absolute masterclass of Antoine Dupont, Aaron Smith now seems startlingly limited. The entire premise of the ABs game is centered around Smith getting to the rucks very quickly and getting speedy, accurate passes away. The ball always beats the man.
Except it doesn't. Not with present day defences, where the defence doesn't commit, and the defensive line is incredibly aggressive, especially the league-inspired defences of Shaun Edward's France and Andy Farrell's Ireland, 2 teams that pummelled us last year. Smith is better than Dupont on the box and in open-field kicking. He has a better pass.
But he is worse off in every other area. Defensively, it is a whitewash. Dupont and Faf are tremendously powerful, which means they offer meaningful defence (which Aaron simply cannot offer -look at how attackers brush him off), and the ability and willingness to clear rucks in a fast tempo game, something which Smith vehemently refuses to do. But it is the threat of a run off the base that checks the rush defense, and makes the defending a far more complicated equation. Add that to a Willemse or Antonio, 135-140kg of angry, destructive beasts running off the 9 (it is absolutely crucial this is off 9 and not 10, which the ABs keep insisting on), and suddenly the brilliant defensive systems of most teams start to crack - we have to secure pillar and post or Dupont goes; but we have to secure around the ruck because that bloody beast Willemse is coming and we are all much smaller; but yet if we don't rush, there's Ntamarck shovelling on to Danty and Fickou, 2 good carrier in midfield, we don't want them building up a head of steam. And yet the wing is troubled - is Ntamarck going to cross-kick or not?
Smith isn't the Smith of yesteryear. He can't run threateningly anymore. His first receivers are Sam Whitelock and Brodie Retallick on the outdated duo forward pod. Already lacking in power, they recieve the ball standing still. There is no good ball-carrier to bend the line except Ardie Savea. Even if 10 is skillful and the backline is dangerous, they don't get it on go-forward ball. Our attack doesn't impose enough questions on the defence. We need physically dominant guys and more thought around how to check the rush defense off 9.
Ireland coming in June is awesome. Ireland is better than France coming over, because the French will be knackered, whearas the Pro14 which the Irish play in is pretty shite. So the Irish are going to come in reasonably fresh after a long season, hopefully with most of their frist team. I hope the Irish is as good as possible - because only if we are tested (even if it means losing at home), will we finally wake up and realise, rugby is a different game. We are being left behind.