Micheal
Alan Cameron (40)
Michael, there's a lot to like about your analysis, but just nit picking, where do you get the 18 matches where you allocate a proportion to each of the candidates. I total 27 more test matches from your figures, so at three locks per match, that gives another 81 caps to be distributed. Have I missed something? And there is no room in your analysis for a late comer to make his mark. The form of Matt Philip and Richie Arnold for example could conceivably bring them under notice before the RWC gets too near as well. In my crystal ball, I see the likes of Simmons, Carter and Douglas all dropping out, with Skelton, Richie Arnold and Matt Philip all coming into contention, so it becomes more important for the starting combination to now be decided and be given as much time together as possible.
What the potato. I don't know how I fluffed that. It's what happens when you write long-form GAGR posts over the period of an hour, alt-tabbing everytime your boss walks past.
I'll fix it up later.
I also think there's space for another player to enter the fray, and I agree that it could be at the expense of Rodda, Tui, Carter or Douglas, but as Derpus suggested, I think Simmons is almost locked in.
I don't think you can underestimate the importance of experience and a level head, especially at on a stage like the RWC final.
Simmons may not be a world beater, but he is a player that fulfills a role and generally does so well.