Springbokke vs Wallabies @ Osfontein 30/9/2017

[dru]

Maybe Cheika doesn't think Joe Powell is going to be his next option at 9 or that Cooper and Lance are his second choice 10 longer term.

In terms of halfback, a lot of people rank Louwrens, Gordon and Ruru as all having a lot of potential. Maybe Cheika thinks the same?

So he doesn’t like what’s available and simply runs with a “single point of failure”, but you will support his wisdom to rotate in building experience in other roles?

There is a lack of consistency in the Cheika support.

 

[Braveheart81]

So he doesn’t like what’s available and simply runs with a “single point of failure”, but you will support his wisdom to rotate in building experience in other roles?

There is a lack of consistency in the Cheika support.

Why would he apply the same policy to every position if he doesn't rate the other options in some positions?

Most people really rate Louwrens but he is still recovering from injury. Does Cheika really have to give Powell more test matches if he'd prefer to pick Louwrens next season just because he has blooded players in other positions? That would make no sense to me. This isn't the under 12s where there has to be some "fairness" test applied across all positions.

Clearly Cheika will have to select Powell if one of his half backs gets injured. That is why he is in the squad. I don't think that means he needs to play tests now.

Sent from my SM-G930F using Tapatalk

 

[KAOPointman]

I'm nit sure he was talking about "Powell".... As there has been Zero reason to doubt Genias spot this year, plus Phipps is there as cover. Not to mention Powell DID get game time anyway.
Foley suits this questionable Cheika theory......as we have no notable cover and have tried zero players as cover or even brought in old or even young new players to blood! Making note that Foley arguably had his best game of the year this game....that's worrying because despite all his positives......it was FAAAR from a solid display!

 

[Micheal]

I'm nit sure he was talking about "Powell".. As there has been Zero reason to doubt Genias spot this year, plus Phipps is there as cover. Not to mention Powell DID get game time anyway.
Foley suits this questionable Cheika theory..as we have no notable cover and have tried zero players as cover or even brought in old or even young new players to blood! Making note that Foley arguably had his best game of the year this game..that's worrying because despite all his positives..it was FAAAR from a solid display!

Okie dokie KAOP. Rule 10 or whatever it is. Please don't start up again.

 

[cyclopath]

I'm nit sure he was talking about "Powell".. As there has been Zero reason to doubt Genias spot this year, plus Phipps is there as cover. Not to mention Powell DID get game time anyway.
Foley suits this questionable Cheika theory..as we have no notable cover and have tried zero players as cover or even brought in old or even young new players to blood! Making note that Foley arguably had his best game of the year this game..that's worrying because despite all his positives..it was FAAAR from a solid display!

As someone posted earlier, maybe Cheika sees Beale as his 10 back up, with several flexible options to arrange the backline if that happens, and although that might not be the option you prefer, it is not the same as "no" option for cover.

 

[Gagger]

I'm not sure you have that around the right way...the 9-10 don't even touch the ball, let alone get good front ball unless the forwards are at minimum holding their own...hopefully getting over the gain line as often as possible. Whenever your teams forwards are being dominated...it instantly puts massive pressure on the 9 to get quick clean ball away...and the 10 HAS to stand deeper. He has no option.
I think what your noticing is the wallaby forwards doing their job on attack!
And Phipps speed comes at a cost of Accuracy, it always has!
And I'm quite sure Foleys passing game Is not stepping up a level..more like enigmas in his game. A bit like his high cross kicks to the best guy under the highball in the world...which he seemed to only recently learn despite being in the same Super team for years!
With pretty descent forward play of late from the Wallaby forwards.we should be seeing more attacking opportunities appearing and being taken advantage of!

That over simplifies it. Forwards getting dominated can push a 10 back. But a 10 standing deep, compounded by slow pill makes it more likely for the ball to get caught behind the gain line (even if your pigs are at parity). And most of your pack is then 5m in front of the ball at previous breakdowns, so it's a vicious circle.

So yes our forwards have improved, but fast ball served flat makes their job a hell of a lot easier.

 

[Derpus]

I think Hodge piped up at one point and said he'd fancy being a back up 10.

 

[dru]

As someone posted earlier, maybe Cheika sees Beale as his 10 back up, with several flexible options to arrange the backline if that happens, and although that might not be the option you prefer, it is not the same as "no" option for cover.

It's a "no option" for depth and the future. Exactly what Cheika is being lauded for in the locks (where others have wondered at the constant changes).

 

[Derpus]

It's a "no option" for depth and the future. Exactly what Cheika is being lauded for in the locks (where others have wondered at the constant changes).

Haven't we already been through this?

 

[dru]

Haven't we already been through this?

Don t like when someone disagrees? And no we haven't. We try, but the Cheika fans shift around the questions without direct answer. And I just put back the question, unanswered, that we started with. But Derpus, you win. I'm out on this one.

 

[KAOPointman]

Okie dokie KAOP. Rule 10 or whatever it is. Please don't start up again.

I'm quite sure I was simply following the flow of the thread and its topic.....but I'll let you have the high ground....as long as you chip in with ole "rule 10" the next time people are "too" critical of Hooper...or Hanigan or maybe Beale....

 

[KAOPointman]

That over simplifies it. Forwards getting dominated can push a 10 back. But a 10 standing deep, compounded by slow pill makes it more likely for the ball to get caught behind the gain line (even if your pigs are at parity). And most of your pack is then 5m in front of the ball at previous breakdowns, so it's a vicious circle.

So yes our forwards have improved, but fast ball served flat makes their job a hell of a lot easier.

Sorry I'm not with you on that one.....if your forwards aenrt making any ground....then if your 10 is standing flat....by the time the 9 clears it to him, IF he can even win the ball, the 10 gets clobbered, at best having time to only shovel on a hospital pass......hence they stand deeper because they need the time. IF your forwards are winning the contest and your playmakers are standing deep.....it's either a tactic in play like a kick or deep attack set move....OR they suck at playing flat!
The slow pill comes FIRST....then you choose how deep u wish to play. If your forwards are getting dominated....you have no choice! It's actually rather simple I thought...

 

[cyclopath]

It's a "no option" for depth and the future. Exactly what Cheika is being lauded for in the locks (where others have wondered at the constant changes).

No, it isn't. Cooper is around, next year Leali'ifano will be and who knows what Super Rugby might throw up. So, short term, maybe he sees Beale as his answer, longer term there are options. And I'm not a blind "Cheika fan", as you like to say, I am just trying to think over the options rationally.

 

[Gagger]

Sorry I'm not with you on that one...if your forwards aenrt making any ground..then if your 10 is standing flat..by the time the 9 clears it to him, IF he can even win the ball, the 10 gets clobbered, at best having time to only shovel on a hospital pass..hence they stand deeper because they need the time. IF your forwards are winning the contest and your playmakers are standing deep...it's either a tactic in play like a kick or deep attack set move..OR they suck at playing flat!
The slow pill comes FIRST..then you choose how deep u wish to play. If your forwards are getting dominated..you have no choice! It's actually rather simple I thought.

For more information re-read my earlier post

 

[Quick Hands]

Re the 5/8 discussion, I think that history suggests the following:

Cheika clearly rates Foley as his preferred candidate (I assume because of his style of play matching the Cheika preferred style)

He doesn't really rate Cooper as an alternative

He doesn't think that the other available candidates are viable at the moment

He likes the idea of a Foley/Beale 10/12 combination with the dual playmaker option

He may or may not be right in his views, but there seems few other logical explanations - especially given his propensity to select different players in a range of other positions.

***Note to Quade fans - please do not interpret this as any statement in the Quave v Foley debate***

 

[fatprop]

I'm nit sure he was talking about "Powell".. As there has been Zero reason to doubt Genias spot this year, plus Phipps is there as cover. Not to mention Powell DID get game time anyway.
Foley suits this questionable Cheika theory..as we have no notable cover and have tried zero players as cover or even brought in old or even young new players to blood! Making note that Foley arguably had his best game of the year this game..that's worrying because despite all his positives..it was FAAAR from a solid display!

It is quite simple, at the moment, despite Foley's "flaws" he is just miles ahead of all the other current options.

In other positions the decision isn't so obvious.

But with Genia, Beale, Folau, Korebete, Hodge & Kuridrani around him we finally have quite good balance and flexibility as well

It is the pigs as usual that are the work in progress

 

[cyclopath]

It is quite simple, at the moment, despite Foley's "flaws" he is just miles ahead of all the other current options.

In other positions the decision isn't so obvious.

But with Genia, Beale, Folau, Korebete, Hodge & Kuridrani around him we finally have quite good balance and flexibility as well

It is the pigs as usual that are the work in progress

Agree. We're scoring enough points that, historically, would have won most tests we played - tries scored this Test season compared to last is dramatically different. We're conceding too many, which needs to be tightened. So currently, ability to attack and score points is not a major deficiency.

 

[KOB1987]

I think Cooper has been sent back to NRC to play himself back into form and to get on top of his injuries. I think if either Foley or Beale were to be unavailable he would be called into the squad but not necessarily into the 23. He has the experience so doesn't need to be a 'squaddie' at this point in his career, game time and personal management are the most important things for him right now.

 

[Brumby Runner]

Where are we going?


In 2017 we have the following tests remaining: Argentina, NZ, Japan, Wales, England, Scotland (+ a Barbarians game).
= 6 games.

In 2018: Rugby Champion Fixtures (6), Bledisloe 3 (1), Mid Year Internationals (3) and a Spring Tour (4).
= 14 games.

In 2019: Mid Year Internationals (3), Shortened Rugby Championship (3), Bledisloe 2 (1).
= 7 games.

Therefore, assuming 3 locks per match day squad, we have 54 caps to be allocated.

Assuming Coleman plays 75% of available games (due to injury), he will receive 14 caps (0.75*18, rounded up).

Assuming Arnold plays 50% of available games (due to injury and form inconsistency), he will receive 9 caps.

Assuming one of Tui and Rodda is in every match day 23, they will both receive 9 caps.

This leaves 13 games to be distributed among Simmons, Douglas and Carter, with each being hypothetically given 6, 4 and 4.

Where does that hypothetically leave us?

The Starting Second Row:

Adam Coleman - 30 caps.
Rory Arnold - 24 caps.

The Reserves:

Rob Simmons - 66 caps.
Izack Rodda - 12 caps.

The Second Row / Flanker Hybrid:

Lukhan Tui - 10 caps.

The Fringe Dependables:

Kane Douglas - 27 caps.
Sam Carter - 20 caps.

Summary

Of course, this is riddled with assumptions and overly simplistic analysis, but in my mind, we will reach RWC2019 with a clear idea of:

+ Who our two best second rowers are.
+ One immensely experienced reserve (Simmons).
+ Two players with enough experience to not be considered "green" (Tui and Rodda) (and whom I think will get more experience than assumed above).
+ Two last resort, dependable backups (Douglas and Carter).

If we just ran with Coleman, Arnold, Simmons every game until RWC2019 we'd end up with:

+ A more experienced starting second row (Arnold, Coleman).
+ One immensely experienced reserve (Simmons).
+ Two last resort backups who wouldn't have had a minute of test match rugby in three years (Douglas, Carter).
+ A whole bunch of untried, untested, undeveloped players (Tui, Rodda, etc.)

Imagine if Coleman or Arnold, or Coleman AND Arnold, went down in the lead up to the comp.

We'd either be running on with two dependable, but average players (Simmons, Douglas, Carter) or two completely untried but high potential players (Tui, Rodda etc.) in the most high pressure environment in International Rugby.

Obviously I've really spelled it out but Cheika's rotation policy has built a lot of depth in the second row, and for a good reason IMO.

Michael, there's a lot to like about your analysis, but just nit picking, where do you get the 18 matches where you allocate a proportion to each of the candidates. I total 27 more test matches from your figures, so at three locks per match, that gives another 81 caps to be distributed. Have I missed something? And there is no room in your analysis for a late comer to make his mark. The form of Matt Philip and Richie Arnold for example could conceivably bring them under notice before the RWC gets too near as well. In my crystal ball, I see the likes of Simmons, Carter and Douglas all dropping out, with Skelton, Richie Arnold and Matt Philip all coming into contention, so it becomes more important for the starting combination to now be decided and be given as much time together as possible.

 

[Derpus]

Michael, there's a lot to like about your analysis, but just nit picking, where do you get the 18 matches where you allocate a proportion to each of the candidates. I total 27 more test matches from your figures, so at three locks per match, that gives another 81 caps to be distributed. Have I missed something? And there is no room in your analysis for a late comer to make his mark. The form of Matt Philip and Richie Arnold for example could conceivably bring them under notice before the RWC gets too near as well. In my crystal ball, I see the likes of Simmons, Carter and Douglas all dropping out, with Skelton, Richie Arnold and Matt Philip all coming into contention, so it becomes more important for the starting combination to now be decided and be given as much time together as possible.

I'd be surprised if Simmons drops out to be honest. Cheika has only ever punted him from the team for short periods to motivate him (ostensibly). I think Cheika will keep him as his bench lineout caller through to 2019.

If i was a coach i'd be looking for the best all-rounder to be starting every match, accompanied by the most abrasive partner i could find. I'd then have a back up caller and basher, rotating them occasionally so they aren't underdone.