Springbokke vs Wallabies @ Osfontein 30/9/2017

[fatprop]

There is no discernible pattern - I know you’ll come up with reasons but they’re not applied consistently.

I think you should look at who has become stable and consistently there over the international season.

The four front rowers
The three hookers
Coleman

Hooper
McMahan

Genia\Phipps
Foley

Beale
Kurindrani

Folau

They seem to have locked in their spots

It is the periphery that are being cycled through seem to be because of giving a young unit an opportunity in the spots that aren't being owned by an incumbent with a bit of resorting to experience in the bigger matches in the pigs.

He appears to want a lock to stand up, find a 6 better than Hanigan and on last weeks game Hodge and Koribete seem to be finding their feet on the wings

 

[fatprop]

Hawko, I see quite a big difference. Hanson certainly switches some of his players around, including the locks, but he does so explicitly to give his stars a rest or for injury cover. He doesn't send them back to the Mitre 10. Cheika on the other hand is usually very critical of the player he drops or the recent form of the player he drops. It is nearly always that they had a disappointing game and are being sent back to NRC to get their game together. Chalk and cheese in my eyes.

It is a different position really Hanson can blood players while resting incumbents, we are trying to find incumbents; and I have no issue with some guys playing games rather than holding tackling bags

 

[Inside Shoulder]

Hey, he seems to like some experienced, calm old locks around in the squad. He had two early in Douglas and Simmons, Simmons won

Didnt Douglas get injured? Your point is still valid - though the basis of that is unfathomable to me: he couldn't wait to get Douglas into the RWC squad to the point that the game he played in Cardiff he looked to me that he could barely bend over. If one wanted to put a positive spin on it I guess you could say that he keeps an open mind about players he has seemingly discarded.

 

[Killer]

Aust will always be average with Cheika in charge, you can only hope for an exceptional leader/Captain to come forward and carry the team with him. Can't see any of the current leaders being the one, maybe Coleman? don't know.
Anyway not going to happen, Shreika won't allow anyone to steal his thunder regardless of the outcome.

 

[Micheal]

My rationale for Cheika's lock switching:

Coming out of the RWC2015 we had the following five locks in or around the Wallaby setup:

+ Kane Douglas: the most promising of the Wallabies locks in RWC2015, but people still questioned his selection in the squad. Did his knee in the final and hasn't been the same player since.

+ Rob Simmons: a workhorse with zero impact. Non-Reds fans have been questioning his Wallaby position since day dot, and even Reds fans have jumped on the bandwagon these days.

+ Sam Carter: Rob Simmons lite. Non-Brumbies fans have questioned his Wallaby position since day dot.

+ Dean Mumm: Sam Carter lite. Everybody, bar his mother, have questioned his Wallaby position since day dot.

+ Will Skelton: the anti Carter/Mumm/Simmons. High impact but low workrate. Hasn't been able to play the full 80 throughout his career, wasn't a reliable jumper etc.

The most experienced was Simmons on 52 tests, followed by Mumm on 36, Douglas on 15 and Skelton on 11 (can't find Sam Carters 2015 stats).

For me, and many posters here, it was patently obvious that the second row was the weakest part of our squad, and given that the second row is one of the most important partnerships on the field, we had to find other solutions.

This was made even more clear given Dean Mumm's retirement, Kane Douglas' knee injury and Will Skelton's departure overseas.

Where are we now?

In my mind, the 2nd row hierarchy is as follows:

Adam Coleman - 16 tests.
Rory Arnold - 15 tests.
Rob Simmons - 60 tests.
Izack Rodda - 3 tests.
Lukhan Tui - 1 test.
Kane Douglas - 23 tests.
Sam Carter - 16 tests.

Quite clearly, Cheika has brought through Coleman, Arnold, Rodda and Tui (with 35 caps between them) extensively whilst still giving Simmons and Douglas enough game time to be familiar with the squad environment.

And what do we need? I'd suggest that by RWC2019 we need four locks (+ perhaps a utility lock / blindside flanker), all of whom we are comfortable with being in the starting XV in case of injury.

And who are they? I'd suggest that as of now, Coleman is confirmed and Simmons is pencilled in as a workhorse and role player who won't let the team down (and can be used heavily against Minnows).

Where are we going?


In 2017 we have the following tests remaining: Argentina, NZ, Japan, Wales, England, Scotland (+ a Barbarians game).
= 6 games.

In 2018: Rugby Champion Fixtures (6), Bledisloe 3 (1), Mid Year Internationals (3) and a Spring Tour (4).
= 14 games.

In 2019: Mid Year Internationals (3), Shortened Rugby Championship (3), Bledisloe 2 (1).
= 7 games.

Therefore, assuming 3 locks per match day squad, we have 54 caps to be allocated.

Assuming Coleman plays 75% of available games (due to injury), he will receive 14 caps (0.75*18, rounded up).

Assuming Arnold plays 50% of available games (due to injury and form inconsistency), he will receive 9 caps.

Assuming one of Tui and Rodda is in every match day 23, they will both receive 9 caps.

This leaves 13 games to be distributed among Simmons, Douglas and Carter, with each being hypothetically given 6, 4 and 4.

Where does that hypothetically leave us?

The Starting Second Row:

Adam Coleman - 30 caps.
Rory Arnold - 24 caps.

The Reserves:

Rob Simmons - 66 caps.
Izack Rodda - 12 caps.

The Second Row / Flanker Hybrid:

Lukhan Tui - 10 caps.

The Fringe Dependables:

Kane Douglas - 27 caps.
Sam Carter - 20 caps.

Summary

Of course, this is riddled with assumptions and overly simplistic analysis, but in my mind, we will reach RWC2019 with a clear idea of:

+ Who our two best second rowers are.
+ One immensely experienced reserve (Simmons).
+ Two players with enough experience to not be considered "green" (Tui and Rodda) (and whom I think will get more experience than assumed above).
+ Two last resort, dependable backups (Douglas and Carter).

If we just ran with Coleman, Arnold, Simmons every game until RWC2019 we'd end up with:

+ A more experienced starting second row (Arnold, Coleman).
+ One immensely experienced reserve (Simmons).
+ Two last resort backups who wouldn't have had a minute of test match rugby in three years (Douglas, Carter).
+ A whole bunch of untried, untested, undeveloped players (Tui, Rodda, etc.)

Imagine if Coleman or Arnold, or Coleman AND Arnold, went down in the lead up to the comp.

We'd either be running on with two dependable, but average players (Simmons, Douglas, Carter) or two completely untried but high potential players (Tui, Rodda etc.) in the most high pressure environment in International Rugby.

Obviously I've really spelled it out but Cheika's rotation policy has built a lot of depth in the second row, and for a good reason IMO.

 

[Derpus]

Yeah nice post.

 

[MonkeyBoy]

My rationale for Cheika's lock switching:

Obviously I've really spelled it out but Cheika's rotation policy has built a lot of depth in the second row, and for a good reason IMO.

How dare you use logic to dispel my pointless internet rage!!!

 

[Inside Shoulder]

We'd either be running on with two dependable, but average players (Simmons, Douglas, Carter) or two completely untried but high potential players (Tui, Rodda etc.) in the most high pressure environment in International Rugby.

Obviously I've really spelled it out but Cheika's rotation policy has built a lot of depth in the second row, and for a good reason IMO.

Great post. Certainly provides a road map against which to test selections from here on in.

 

[Derpus]

Great post. Certainly provides a road map against which to test selections from here on in.

Yeah, you could probably write up a similar post for Number 6 and Wing. Feel free to cause that's a good read.

 

[Inside Shoulder]

Yeah, you could probably write up a similar post for Number 6 and Wing. Feel free to cause that's a good read.

Yeah.......nah. I'll just wait for the next unfathomable selection. I gather that its now thought Tui will usurp Hanigan?

 

[dru]

Obviously I've really spelled it out but Cheika's rotation policy has built a lot of depth in the second row, and for a good reason IMO.

Michael, nice work.


I have to ask though - and it's not really a question to you, more back on the befuddlement many of us have with Cheika - how is this policy working at :

x scrum half
x fly half

 

[Braveheart81]

x scrum half
x fly half

Maybe Cheika doesn't think Joe Powell is going to be his next option at 9 or that Cooper and Lance are his second choice 10 longer term.

In terms of halfback, a lot of people rank Louwrens, Gordon and Ruru as all having a lot of potential. Maybe Cheika thinks the same?

 

[Derpus]

Maybe Cheika doesn't think Joe Powell is going to be his next option at 9 or that Cooper and Lance are his second choice 10 longer term.

In terms of halfback, a lot of people rank Louwrens, Gordon and Ruru as all having a lot of potential. Maybe Cheika thinks the same?

I think there is a good chance we will lose one of Ruru or Louwrens (if not both). There is space at the reds for a start, but where else?

 

[Braveheart81]

I think there is a good chance we will lose one of Ruru or Louwrens (if not both). There is space at the reds for a start, but where else?

I agree. This is probably where we need the ARU to offer an increase in the salary cap for next year so some sides can carry more than three halfbacks.

If you were to rank the Australian halfbacks in order, some that have been far more favoured in the past like Stirzacker, Frisby, and Lucas wouldn't be in the top 2 of a side based on both the current situation and into the future.

I'd probably rank Genia, Phipps, Powell, Louwrens, Ruru, Tuttle and Gordon as the 7 best right now.

 

[Derpus]

I agree. This is probably where we need the ARU to offer an increase in the salary cap for next year so some sides can carry more than three halfbacks.

If you were to rank the Australian halfbacks in order, some that have been far more favoured in the past like Stirzacker, Frisby, and Lucas wouldn't be in the top 2 of a side based on both the current situation and into the future.

I'd probably rank Genia, Phipps, Powell, Louwrens, Ruru, Tuttle and Gordon as the 7 best right now.

I don't get why they havn't already. Wasn't that the whole point of contracting? More funds for each club, whilst also saving a bit on the bottom line? Losing Louwrens for bloody Frisby would be criminal.

 

[Gagger]

I loved the 9-10 combo from this match. Lightning service from Genia to Foley flat on the ad line is hard for anyone to handle.

Because of this we're no longer talking about 'the forwards not giving Genia & Cooper good enough ball', because Genia and Foley are making the ball good.

This speed was what Phipps had over Genia, but when Genia does this his all round athleticism puts him in another league.

Foley's also starting to show wider passing skills we've not seen before.

Let's hope it can build.

 

[Jimmy_Crouch]

My rationale for Cheika's lock switching:

Great posts. One additional point would be the players ability to run a lineout. Remembering previously Fardy and Mumm could fill this role in lieu of a lock. It seems that only Coleman and Simmons can currently. I'll be very interested to see what the Reds do this season. Maybe Higginbotham (who incidentally happens to be the best lineout jumper in the county).

 

[KAOPointman]

I loved the 9-10 combo from this match. Lightning service from Genia to Foley flat on the ad line is hard for anyone to handle.

Because of this we're no longer talking about 'the forwards not giving Genia & Cooper good enough ball', because Genia and Foley are making the ball good.

This speed was what Phipps had over Genia, but when Genia does this his all round athleticism puts him in another league.

Foley's also starting to show wider passing skills we've not seen before.

Let's hope it can build.

I'm not sure you have that around the right way.....the 9-10 don't even touch the ball, let alone get good front ball unless the forwards are at minimum holding their own.....hopefully getting over the gain line as often as possible. Whenever your teams forwards are being dominated.....it instantly puts massive pressure on the 9 to get quick clean ball away.....and the 10 HAS to stand deeper. He has no option.
I think what your noticing is the wallaby forwards doing their job on attack!
And Phipps speed comes at a cost of Accuracy, it always has!
And I'm quite sure Foleys passing game Is not stepping up a level....more like enigmas in his game. A bit like his high cross kicks to the best guy under the highball in the world.....which he seemed to only recently learn despite being in the same Super team for years!
With pretty descent forward play of late from the Wallaby forwards...we should be seeing more attacking opportunities appearing and being taken advantage of!

 

[Quick Hands]

I'm not sure you have that around the right way...the 9-10 don't even touch the ball, let alone get good front ball unless the forwards are at minimum holding their own...hopefully getting over the gain line as often as possible. Whenever your teams forwards are being dominated...it instantly puts massive pressure on the 9 to get quick clean ball away...and the 10 HAS to stand deeper. He has no option.
I think what your noticing is the wallaby forwards doing their job on attack!
And Phipps speed comes at a cost of Accuracy, it always has!
And I'm quite sure Foleys passing game Is not stepping up a level..more like enigmas in his game. A bit like his high cross kicks to the best guy under the highball in the world...which he seemed to only recently learn despite being in the same Super team for years!
With pretty descent forward play of late from the Wallaby forwards.we should be seeing more attacking opportunities appearing and being taken advantage of!

It's a lot easier to look good in attack against the Boks or Pumas than it is against NZ or England, but your general point is fine.

Our attack has certainly improved since the lamentable June tests, in which it was disjointed and slow. I think that Cheika's point about the lack of fitness of the players coming from the super teams has been proven.

 

[KAOPointman]

Maybe Cheika doesn't think Joe Powell is going to be his next option at 9 or that Cooper and Lance are his second choice 10 longer term.

In terms of halfback, a lot of people rank Louwrens, Gordon and Ruru as all having a lot of potential. Maybe Cheika thinks the same?

Do you really thinks that would be true? With the amount of switching and new blood he's done this year.....if they're not even in the wider squads atm then I'd imagine that says what they think of them! Either that or Cheika is very sure nothing wrong will happen to key players! Powell had a run but his demotion made sense with Genia and Phipps back. And Powell was excellent this year!