Finals Crystal Ball
After round 15 the finals race should be clear, however not too many would have predicted the shape of the Shute Shield Ladder at this stage of the season before Round 1.
While 52 Competition points seems to be the traditional requirement to make the final 6, given the results so far this season it looks like teams will need around 60 points to comfortably be in the running for Finals.
Looking at the run home to see who the contenders really are:
Randwick, 56 points. To come: Southern Districts, Eastwood, Warringah.
Sydney University 54 points. To come: Eastern Suburbs, West Harbour, Parramatta.
Northern Suburbs, 53 points. To come: West Harbour, Parramatta, Manly.
Manly 52 points. To come: Warringah, Gordon, Northern Suburbs.
Southern Districts, 51 points. To come: Randwick, Penrith, Eastern Suburbs.
Warringah, 48 points. To come: Manly, Eastern Suburbs, Randwick.
Eastern Suburbs, 48 points. To come: Sydney University, Warringah, Southern Districts.
Eastwood, 46 points. To come: Penrith, Randwick, Gordon.
West Harbour, Parramatta, Gordon and Penrith are probably out of the running even if they win all their remaining games with a 4T BP.
Using Rounds 1-15 results and BP allocations (as fraught with danger that would be), as the results for Rounds 16-18, the finals contenders should be:
1. Northern Suburbs, 68 points (only play 1 of the top 6 contenders)
2. Sydney University, 64 points (play 1 top 6 contenders, & their Bogie team)
3. Manly, 64 points (play 2 top 6 contenders)
4. Randwick 63 points (play 3 of the top 6 contenders)
5. Southern Districts, 61 points (play 2 top 6 contenders)
6. Warringah, 59 points (play 3 of the top 6 contenders)
Eastwood, 56 points (play 1 top 6 contenders)
Eastern Suburbs, 55 points (Tough gig playing 3 top 6 contenders)
This is still looking too close to call with only 3 rounds to go. It looks like The Corporation, Shoremen, Hobbits , MMM and Randi-Wix will qualify with, Beasties, Woodies and Rats having an almighty scrap for the last finals slot.