Finals Crystal Ball
We have had one lap around the park, and not too many would have predicted the shape of the Shute Shield Ladder at this stage of the season in the lead up to Round 1.
While 52 Competition points seems to be the traditional requirement to make the final 6, given the results so far this season it looks like teams will need around 60 points to comfortably be in the running for Finals.
Looking at the run home to see who the contenders really are:
Sydney University 45 points. To come: Eastwood, Penrith, Randwick, Warringah, Eastern Suburbs, West Harbour, Parramatta.
Southern Districts, 40 points. To come: West Harbour, Eastwood, Manly, Gordon, Randwick, Penrith, Eastern Suburbs.
Eastwood, 40 points. To come: Sydney University, Southern Districts, West Harbour, Parramatta, Penrith, Randwick, Gordon.
Eastern Suburbs, 40 points. To come: Manly, Randwick, Gordon, Northern Suburbs, Sydney University, Warringah, Southern Districts.
Randwick, 38 points. To come: Parramatta, Eastern Suburbs, Sydney University, West Harbour, Southern Districts, Eastwood, Warringah.
Northern Suburbs, 34 points. To come: Gordon, Warringah, Penrith, Eastern Suburbs, West Harbour, Parramatta, Manly.
Warringah, 34 points. To come: Penrith, Northern Suburbs, Parramatta, Sydney University, Manly, Eastern Suburbs, Randwick.
Manly 34 points. To come: Eastern Suburbs, Parramatta, Southern Districts, Penrith, Warringah, Gordon, Northern Suburbs.
West Harbour, Parramatta, Gordon and Penrith are probably out of the running even if they win all their remaining games with a 4T BP.
Using Rounds 1-11 results and BP allocations (as fraught with danger that would be), as the results for Rounds 12-18, the finals contenders should be:
Sydney University, 70 points (play 4 top 6 contenders)
Randwick 68 points (play 5 of the top 6 contenders)
Southern Districts, 64 points (play 4 top 6 contenders)
Eastern Suburbs, 63 points (Tough gig playing 6 top 6 contenders)
Northern Suburbs, 62 points (only plays 3 of the top 6 contenders)
Eastwood, 61 points (will they be ambushed by Parramatta again? play 3 top 6 contenders)
Manly, 59 points (play 4 top 6 contenders)
Warringah, 55 points (play 5 of the top 6 contenders)
This is looking too close to call at this stage. It looks like Rats may be out, and The Corporation and Randi-Wix in, with Hobbits, Beasties, Shoremen, Woodies and MMM all having an almighty scrap to avoid one of them missing out on making finals.